Ukraine’s declared goal is to recapture the Cherson Oblast and Crimea. If at least one step in this direction is to succeed, the Ukrainian troops have to cross the Dnipro river. However, the most important connections from Cherson have been destroyed: for example the Antonivka Bridge northeast of the city center. The next road bridge is regarding 70 kilometers away from Kherson, at the dam town of Nowa Kakhovka – the condition of the road is unclear.
London: Russians prepare for defense
On the other hand, according to British military experts, Russian troops were preparing for further setbacks. This emerged from the daily intelligence update from the Ministry of Defense in London on Friday. Thus, following withdrawing from the north-west bank of the Dnipro River, Russian forces focused on regrouping and making defensive arrangements in most of the parts of the country they occupied, including in the area adjacent to the south-east bank of the river.
New trenches have been dug near the border to the Crimean peninsula, which Russia has occupied since 2014. “Some of the sites are located up to 60 kilometers behind the current front line, which suggests that Russian planners are making preparations in the event of further major Ukrainian breakthroughs,” the London statement said. At the same time, Ukrainian forces positioned their missiles closer to Crimea.
“Partially Vulnerable”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank, recently wrote that while Ukraine may have the means to follow the Russian army across the river, it is unlikely to do so “since the Logistics for a bridgehead on the east bank is very difficult,” it said. In general, according to experts, such an advance is extremely risky – because of the Russian defense lines.
It is currently said that the Russian troops in the east of the Kherson Oblast are probably partially vulnerable if the Ukrainian troops advance on the city of Kherson in the way they have recently done. In addition, the Russian army had moved troops from the area to the eastern region of Donetsk because they had become free in the course of the withdrawal from the Cherson region.
Front hardly changed at all
In general, the course of the front has changed little since the successful Ukrainian recapture offensive near Kharkiv in early September. Russia has carried out defense preparations along the entire length of the front, Colonel Berthold Sandtner, researcher at the Vienna Institute for Higher Military Command at the National Defense Academy, recently told the APA. At present, the Russian armed forces are not capable of offensive action to any great extent. The emphasis is also clearly on stabilizing the front.
Depending on the weather conditions, new Russian offensives might be launched early next year. To this end, the remaining 200,000 soldiers called up as part of the partial mobilization are currently being formed, trained and equipped in Russia. Although the partial mobilization has officially ended, it can be assumed that it will continue quietly and that the number will certainly increase to half a million soldiers.
Russian offensive in January?
The training of the 200,000 men should be completed by the end of November or the beginning of December. The Russian army might then launch an offensive in January, when the ground is frozen once more and it is easier to move around in the terrain. “Right now is the worst time of the year. It’s raining, it’s wet and muddy.”
Fierce fighting in the Donbas
Ukrainian and Russian troops are currently fighting fiercely in the Donbas, although the course of the front has hardly changed there either. This emerges from the military situation reports from both sides for Friday, in which the information largely corresponded to one another. The Ukrainian General Staff on Friday reported artillery and tank shelling in Donbas on villages such as Vodyane, Krasnohorivka and Maryinka near the town of Avdiivka.
Ukrainian-controlled Avdiivka is a few kilometers north of Donetsk. Because the front between Ukrainian forces and Moscow-controlled separatists has been running there since 2014, Ukraine’s positions are well developed. In the nearly nine months since the Russian invasion on February 24, Russian forces have made little gains in terrain. However, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the village of Opytne north of Donetsk had been captured.
Also fighting in the region around Bakhmut
According to the situation report of the Ukrainian general staff, another focus of the fighting is the region around the city of Bakhmut. There, Ukrainian positions were fired on with tanks, mortars, tube and rocket artillery. Here, too, the course of the front has remained practically unchanged for months.
There was also heavy artillery fire on the Kupyansk front. This important railway junction in the Kharkiv region was recaptured in September’s rapid advance by the Ukrainian army. Since then, however, the Ukrainians have made little progress towards the east. The military in Moscow announced on Friday that Ukrainian attacks had been repelled.
According to local authorities, Russian troops fired at a village in the Zaporizhia region at night with the S-300 system missiles, which were actually intended for anti-aircraft defense. A building was destroyed, but no one was injured. Moscow confirmed Thursday’s rocket attacks: They were aimed at Ukrainian command posts “with the associated energy infrastructure”. According to Ukrainian information, Russia is primarily shelling civilian infrastructure, in violation of international law.
