Lrussia might invade Ukraine “at any time”, a hypothesis which revives more than ever the specter of a war in Europe in a dramatic acceleration of events following a phase of intense diplomacy. In any case, this is what Washington said on Friday February 11, on the eve of a new round of phone calls between heads of state, on both sides of the Atlantic. US President Joe Biden, who is spending the weekend at the Camp David residence, will speak on the phone on Saturday with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, following a phone call on Friday between their heads of state- major. A call is also scheduled for Saturday between the master of the Kremlin and the French head of state Emmanuel Macron.
“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including the arrival of new forces on the Ukrainian border,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned following a virtual meeting of top leaders Westerners. “An invasion might take place at any time if Vladimir Putin gives the order”, he added, assuring that it might even “start during the Olympic Games” in Beijing, which end on February 20.
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According to him, such an offensive is a “very, very real possibility”, but American intelligence does not know whether the Russian president “has made a final decision” or not. “No one knows if a decision to act has been taken,” a NATO diplomat confirmed to Agence France-Presse. After these statements, Wall Street fell sharply, while oil prices soared.
“Strong” penalties
Joe Biden’s adviser reaffirmed that Westerners were “ready for all scenarios”: unprecedented economic reprisals in the event of war but also an outstretched diplomatic hand to continue negotiations with Moscow on security in Europe. In the meantime, the Pentagon will send “in the next few days” 3,000 additional American soldiers to Poland to “reassure the NATO allies”.
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And the head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, assured his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kouleba, on Friday of the “firm support” of the United States in Kiev. Several rounds of talks in recent days have failed to defuse the crisis, born of the deployment in recent months on the borders of Ukraine of more than 100,000 Russian soldiers with heavy weapons.
“The allies are determined to take rapid and drastic sanctions together once morest Russia” in the event of an attack, tweeted, following the meeting of Western leaders, the spokesman for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who must go at the beginning of next week in Moscow. Like Paris, Berlin insisted on the “diplomatic” way to move towards a “de-escalation”.
In addition to Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, the teleconference brought together NATO and EU leaders, as well as Polish President Andrzej Duda, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said “we fear for the security of Europe”.
“Aerial bombings”
The White House has praised the “remarkable” unity of Westerners in the face of what they see as the most dangerous moment for Europe since the end of the Cold War 30 years ago. The Americans, who shared the analyzes of their intelligence services with their allies, sketched out a dramatic scenario in the event of a Russian offensive. This “would probably start with aerial bombardments and missile fire which might obviously kill civilians”, Jake Sullivan told the press. It might also include “a rapid assault” on the capital Kiev.
The adviser called on Americans in Ukraine to leave the country “within 24 to 48 hours”, relaying the very direct warning issued the day before by Joe Biden, who had warned that “things might get carried away very quickly “. The American president had however repeated that he would not send soldiers on the ground in Ukraine, even to evacuate Americans in the event of a Russian invasion, because this might trigger “a world war”.
Discussions without result
Friday, the Kremlin noted that discussions bringing together the day before in Berlin representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France had produced “no result”. These discussions focus on the conflict in eastern Ukraine which has pitted Russian-backed separatists once morest the Ukrainian army since 2014, and which has claimed more than 14,000 lives. Moscow, which has already annexed Crimea in 2014, denies any aggressive intentions towards Ukraine, but conditions any de-escalation on a series of requirements, in particular the assurance that Kiev will never integrate NATO. Unacceptable, say Westerners.
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While Emmanuel Macron assured that he had obtained a commitment from Vladimir Putin on Monday not to fuel any further escalation, Russia announced new military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border on Friday. In addition to the large-scale exercises launched Thursday in Belarus, it will engage in other training for “combat missions” in the Russian border region of Rostov, with hundreds of soldiers and tanks. The Russian Navy also conducts maneuvers in the Black Sea, of which Ukraine is bordering.
