The United Kingdom avoided recession in 2022 thanks to the 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter of GDP. In the third quarter, it had fallen by 0.1%, a figure once more revised slightly upwards (-0.2% previously).
The generally accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction.
« The economy performed a little better in the last half of last year than previously estimated”, driven in particular by a better performance of the “telecommunications, construction and manufacturing sectors”. “, said on Twitter Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics of the ONS.
Growth of 0.3% in January
« Households saved more in the last quarter as their finances were boosted by the government’s energy bill relief program “, he added. The United Kingdom also experienced growth of 0.3% in January, more than expected, according to data from the ONS published in early March.
However, the British economy is still under pressure. Recession fears are not dispelled for this year, in a country facing a severe cost of living crisis, with inflation at more than 10% for months – and which has rebounded to 14.4% year on year in February. ” Alcohol prices on the rise in pubs and restaurants ” largely contributed to this surprise rebound just like “ food and non-alcoholic beverages, which have grown at the fastest rate in more than 45 years explained Grant Fitzner, economist at the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The country should also avoid recession in 2023
The office argues in particular that the recent shortages of vegetables, such as salads or peppers, have contributed to this increase in food prices, which has reached 18% in the country, hitting the most vulnerable Britons in particular. The finances of the United Kingdom were also weighed down in February by the impact of public aid linked to household energy bills, which sent public borrowing soaring.
GDP was in the fourth quarter 0.6% below what it was before the arrival of the Covid, according to the ONS, while the British economy is the only one in the G7 to have not yet regained its level pre-pandemic. Nevertheless, according to the OBR, a public budget forecasting body, the country should once more – narrowly – escape technical recession this year. According to this organization, the British economy should contract by a total of 0.2% over the year due to a soft patch expected for the first quarter alone, before rebounding over the rest of the year but also in the years to come.
(With AFP)
