The academic from the Faculty of Agricultural Engineering of the University of Concepción, Dr. José Luis Arumí Ribera, stated that there is uncertainty regarding the climatic behavior during this year in the central and south-central zone of the country, given that the projections about the arrival of the La Niña phenomenon starting in July does not mean that this year will be dry, but rather that different scenarios of rain or lack thereof could occur. In this context, he called to leave ideological discussions aside and specify measures to confront water scarcity, particularly in Ñuble, which he described as “vulnerable” to Climate Change, which is why he urged to specify the reservoirs projected in the region.
He acknowledged that “it is very difficult to make projections, especially after the abnormal spring we had, in fact, regarding La Niña, the only thing we have are percentages of probabilities, there is no certainty.”
The director of the Department of Water Resources of the UdeC warned that, “anything can happen this year, because when we have El Niño there is a greater probability of rain, and when we have La Niña, it is more likely to be a dry year, but in This time we are going to be in a transition, which historically shows periods of rain and drought, which is why I maintain that it is not easy to make an accurate forecast of what is going to happen in the coming months.”
Likewise, in a scenario of La Niña entering, Dr. Arumí did not rule out that there could be two or three more years of drought, “where last year was just a relief from a situation that is already seen as structural. We really have a condition of water scarcity that has already lasted 14 years,” he emphasized.
“We are talking about climatic processes on a planetary scale, with data that is confusing, because you see intense drought processes that occurred in Brazil, in Spain, now we have floods in other areas, so what we are seeing is, in short, conditions more complex ones related to precipitation systems that would be, in some way, showing all the Climate Change forecasts that we had talked about before; We are already beginning to see the effects of Climate Change,” declared the researcher.
Reservoirs
In that sense, he stressed that “the concepts that describe this are uncertainty and preparation; We cannot say that the drought ended because we had a particularly wet year in 2023, with a fairly mild spring, including snow.”
Faced with this climate uncertainty, the hydrologist stated that “we must be prepared” and reiterated “the importance of having water storage systems, which are reservoirs. Ñuble is particularly vulnerable because we have no back.”
“For example, in the Coquimbo region the reservoirs are practically dry. There they had a good hydrological year, which was years ago, the reservoirs were filled and that has allowed the region to endure several seasons. We had a good year and Lake Laja went from having 800 million to 2 billion cubic meters, which gives the entire system that depends on Laja at least two or three years of respite. So, while it is true, many of us like free rivers, in an area that depends on agricultural production like the Ñuble region and that agricultural production depends on the availability of water, measures must be taken and are followed postponing these measures,” stated Dr. Arumí.
“Since I arrived in the region, 33 years ago, I have been hearing about the construction of the La Punilla reservoir, Zapallar, Chillán and many other projects. So, one sees with a certain degree of anguish, and this is aggravated with short presidential terms, that there is a lot of discussion, a lot of ideological fighting, but in the end there are no concrete solutions for the people,” he pointed out.
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