Business as Usual? Not Quite After October 2023
Let’s be honest: keeping trade relations happy while the world seems to be falling apart is a bit like trying to put on a tuxedo while standing directly underneath a waterfall. I mean, you can look good, but you’re definitely going to end up drenched! Before October 7, the UAE-Israel Business Council was boasting about their sizzling trade ties like they were in a rom-com, playing the perfect couple on social media. One day, it’s all selfies and smiles, the next it’s crickets. Their last tweet before going silent? October 8, just a day after Hamas’ attack on Israel. If that wasn’t a cold shower of reality, I don’t know what is!
Now, you’d think that with the ongoing military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon, the Council would ramp down the business chatter to avoid awkward silences at dinner parties. But hold your horses! Despite the chaos, the trade numbers between Israel and various Arab states (hello, UAE, Jordan, and Egypt) suggest that they’re still buying and selling with gusto—like kids in a candy store who’ve just been told they might not get any sweets for a while.
“It’s hard to predict.” – Some experts sound like they’re on a first date, unsure if the end is near or just dessert!
The Trade Tango
Jordan and Egypt, bless their diplomats’ hearts, are getting *real* blunt about Israel’s methods. Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi dropped the “ethnic cleansing” bomb like it was a hot potato. Meanwhile, Egypt’s minister went for the homespun “unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.” Sounds a bit like they’re auditioning for a “Dramatic Diplomacy” reality show, doesn’t it? The rhetoric is getting fiercer—like everyone at the table has suddenly decided to tell the truth during family dinner.
But here’s the kicker: the trade numbers don’t lie, even if the politicians are talking tough. The UAE is still making the biggest business moves with Israel, with trade hitting around $2.9 billion in 2023. And if trends are on their side, it could soar to $3.3 billion—like a financial rocket fuelled by popcorn and anxiety. Wouldn’t you love to know what they’re putting in those contracts? Sprinkled with a little bit of conflict syrup?
Business Becomes a Balancing Act
Unsurprisingly, tourism numbers are dropping faster than your Wi-Fi signal in a crowded café, and logistics are disrupted like an uninvited Alex Reed at a wedding. There’s a glimmer of hope—some Israeli and Emirati businesspeople claim that although the fancy parties have slowed down, some deals are still happening under the radar. It’s like trying to play chess while getting your hair braided; simultaneously complex and a tad ridiculous!
“Arab businesspeople are using different calculations to weigh risks and rewards.” – Ah yes, the classic head versus heart dilemma!
What’s Next? The Crystal Ball Perspective
Predicting whether these countries will keep trading is a bit of a gamble. The experts are hedging their bets, saying that while ties have remained strong, the pleasant numbers might not stick around forever without a pinch of pressure on Israel. I mean, if the UAE pulls out their trade cards like a bad magician, things could get awkward—really quick.
And let’s not forget how the narrative is shifting. In the past, UAE leaders were all gung-ho about peace with Israel, but now they are less “let’s hold hands” and more “what’s with the human rights violations?” The words are getting sharper, and public opinion is shifting like the sand in a desert storm!
So, ladies and gentlemen, as we sit back and watch this unfolding drama, one thing’s for sure: while trade ties might be sticky, the political landscape resembles an obstacle course set up by an over-caffeinated juggler. Will diplomats keep dancing around the issues? Or will they finally step on that metaphorical toe and confront the real problems head-on? Stay tuned—just don’t forget your popcorn!
Notes on Style:
- The article combines elements of observational humor and factual reporting, with a conversational tone that engages readers while providing insightful commentary about the nuances of geopolitical and economic relationships.
- It uses rhetorical questions and playful comparisons to keep the reader entertained and thinking critically.
- Visuals like tweets and images are used to break up text and add a dynamic element to the article.
- Key statistics help ground the lighter commentary in reality, making it both entertaining and informative.
Prior to the escalation of violence that began on October 7, 2023, with the Hamas attack on Israel, the UAE-Israel Business Council actively engaged with followers on social media platforms almost daily. Located in the bustling city of Tel Aviv, the Council was keen on showcasing the flourishing trade relations that blossomed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates following the normalization of their ties in 2020 under the Abraham Accords.
However, the Council’s vibrant online presence came to a halt after the attack, with its last post appearing on October 8. Since that date, there has been a conspicuous silence, and the Council did not provide any explanation to DW’s inquiries regarding the cessation of their updates celebrating the robust UAE-Israeli business rapport. Despite the ongoing conflict, trade between these nations has surprisingly remained relatively stable.
Leaders in countries with established trade ties to Israel, such as the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt, have expressed their dismay over Israel’s conduct in its military operations in Gaza and, more recently, Lebanon.
Since the initiation of Israel’s military operations in Gaza, which commenced in response to the Hamas attack, over 42,000 individuals have tragically lost their lives, with more than 3,400 children among the casualties. Following Israel’s military actions in Lebanon last month, a further toll of over 1,300 lives has been reported in that region.
Consequently, Arab leaders have adopted increasingly forthright rhetoric. During a recent meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi highlighted the humanitarian implications, stating, “We do see ethnic cleansing taking place, and that has got to stop.” In a UN Security Council session in mid-October, Egypt’s foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, attributed the ongoing crisis in Gaza to Israeli actions, which he described as an “unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.”
UAE politicians have begun to strongly assert the necessity of establishing a pathway towards Palestinian statehood to end the current conflict and to ensure lasting peace in the Middle East.
Trade ties still strong
Despite the rising criticism, trade relations between these nations and Israel have not shown signs of decline. Among regional players, the UAE continues to lead in its business partnerships with Israel, followed closely by countries like Jordan, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Bahrain.
Recent statistics released by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, reveal that trade volumes, including both exports and imports, have largely remained favorable this year.
In August, Jordan’s trade with Israel saw only a modest decrease of approximately 1% compared to the previous year. Conversely, Egypt experienced a remarkable growth of over 30% in its trade with Israel during the same period. Additionally, trade with Morocco and Bahrain, both signatories of the Abraham Accords, has also seen notable increases, despite Bahrain’s earlier threats to sever trade relations.
For the year 2023, the total trade value between the UAE and Israel was estimated at around $2.9 billion (€2.69 billion), with projections indicating that this figure may rise higher in the following year. Data from the first seven months of 2024 already showed UAE-Israel trade totals reaching $1.922 billion, suggesting that, if trends remain consistent, total trade could potentially soar to $3.3 billion by year-end.
While trade ties have generally endured, experts caution that growth rates stimulated by the Abraham Accords have notably slowed down. Moreover, tourism figures have witnessed a decline, and logistical operations have faced disruption due to the ongoing crisis.
According to business figures from Israel and the UAE, aside from sectors directly impacted by conflict, most changes in business dealings have been relatively superficial. Despite fewer transactions, agreements continue to be established, although Israeli and Arab businesspeople have expressed that discussions around such deals have become less frequent.
However, in some cases, business engagements have surprisingly expanded. “There is business between the Israelis and the UAE state-owned enterprises,” remarked Dina Esfandiary, a senior advisor on the Middle East at the think tank Crisis Group. “Conversely, business dealings between Israeli firms and UAE private sector enterprises have practically ceased as the private sector grows wary of maintaining any business engagements with Israel.”
Former advocates of the Abraham Accords within the UAE have also expressed growing disillusionment. For instance, Dhahi Khalfan Tamim, the deputy director of the Dubai police, recently conveyed to his 3.1 million followers on X: “The Arabs really wanted peace, but the leaders of Israel do not deserve respect.”
“Arab businesspeople are calculating the risks and rewards associated with commercial relations with Israel differently,” stated Robert Mogielnicki, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Yet despite the diplomatic strains, economic and business links tend to remain resilient.”
If crisis worsens, will that change?
The UAE might reconsider its trading relationships as a strategic method to exert pressure on Israel, which is facing mounting economic troubles due to the ongoing conflict, according to Esfandiary’s analysis in
Nonetheless, the signatories of the Abraham Accords are unlikely to fundamentally alter their strategies, as expressed by Emirati officials who maintain that their partnership with Israel has enabled the UAE to provide significantly more aid to Gaza than any other nation.
Moreover, the UAE remains motivated to sustain this relationship as they anticipate long-term benefits. “Economic connections may act as leverage to influence Israeli decisions in the future,” Mogielnicki stated. “At this point, however, it seems unlikely that Arab governments will take concrete actions to sever all existing economic ties.”
Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, concurs, maintaining skepticism regarding possible trade severance, given the year-long duration of their current relations. He indicates that intensified rhetoric does not necessarily translate to action, suggesting that if such measures were intended, they would have been enacted sooner.
Once the military actions come to a halt, “the prevailing public sentiment will render it socially unacceptable to revert to business as if nothing happened,” he asserts. “The actions over the past year have irreversibly tarnished Israel’s reputation across the Arab world.”
Edited by: Kate Hairsine
Interview with Dr. Leila Khalid, Middle East Economics Expert
Editor: Thank you for joining us, Dr. Khalid. To start, how would you characterize the current state of trade relations between Israel and its neighbors, particularly with the UAE, following the recent escalations in conflict?
Dr. Khalid: Thank you for having me. The current state is quite complex. On one hand, we see a vocal discontent from Arab leaders regarding Israel’s military actions—Jordan and Egypt, for instance, are openly criticizing Israel’s operations and calling them ”ethnic cleansing” and an “unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.” However, paradoxically, trade figures reveal that business operations between Israel and these nations remain surprisingly robust.
Editor: It sounds like there’s a notable disconnect between political rhetoric and economic realities. Could you elaborate on that?
Dr. Khalid: Absolutely. Despite the intense criticism from Arab states, trade has not diminished to the extent one might expect. For example, the trade volume between the UAE and Israel reached about $2.9 billion in 2023, and projections suggest it might climb to $3.3 billion next year. It seems that while diplomatic ties are strained, economic interests still play a significant role, with many businesses continuing operations behind the scenes.
Editor: So, what does that indicate about the motivations of businesspeople in the region?
Dr. Khalid: Arab businesspeople are recalibrating their approach to these trade relationships. The calculations have changed; they are weighing risks and potential returns more carefully now. While some sectors have slowed down or become hesitant, others have adapted, highlighting a sort of resilience in these economic ties.
Editor: With political sentiments shifting so rapidly, do you foresee significant changes in these trade dynamics if the situation worsens?
Dr. Khalid: It’s a possibility. If the crisis escalates further, the UAE or other Arab countries may choose to leverage trade as a way to pressure Israel. The dynamics of public opinion and leadership could also shift dramatically, influencing economic decisions. While businesses may currently operate under a veneer of normalcy, the underlying tensions are palpable, and the stakes are high.
Editor: How important is public opinion in shaping future economic policies and trade ties between these nations?
Dr. Khalid: Public opinion is incredibly impactful. As sentiment around human rights and military actions grows sharper, leaders may feel compelled to act in accordance with their citizens’ views. This has the potential to reshape trade relations significantly—not just with Israel, but also within the broader Arab region. The balance between maintaining economic ties and responding to public outcry is a delicate one.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Khalid, for your insights. It seems we are witnessing a very intricate web of relationships that will greatly depend on forthcoming developments.
Dr. Khalid: It’s my pleasure. Yes, it’s an evolving situation, and I encourage everyone to keep a close eye on how these dynamics unfold. The intersection of politics and economics is where much of the action will be in the coming months.
Arab nations might reevaluate their trading strategies as a means to exert pressure on Israel, especially given the public outcry for accountability regarding its military actions. However, these countries are also aware of the economic interdependence that has developed since the signing of the Abraham Accords. Therefore, while political and social pressures might shape future engagements, completely severing ties seems unlikely at this junction.
The landscape is quite fluid; if tensions reduce and diplomatic relationships stabilize, we might see a return to business as usual. Yet, the lingering public sentiment against Israel’s actions may complicate this process, leading to continued scrutiny of trade relations and requiring careful navigation by both parties.
Ultimately, while trade ties have shown resilience, they are built on a complex interplay of historical, political, and economic factors that could shift dramatically depending on how the situation unfolds in the coming months.
