[周刊王CTWANT] U.S. stocks closed down nearly 1,000 points on Friday, and the Nasdaq fell 13.3% in April, the worst record since the 2008 financial tsunami; analysts pointed out that Intel, Amazon and Apple’s poor financial forecasts , the panic index (VIX) soared to 33, the poor prospects of technology stocks, dampened investment sentiment, foreign capital will continue to use Taiwan’s large weight stocks as ATMs, Taiwan stocks are likely to stage another dive and break the bottom in the short term, TSMC is facing a short-term 500 Yuan Defense.
Cai Minghan, an analyst at Cathay Pacific Securities Futures Consultancy, analyzed that this stock market crash was mainly due to the “bad double kill” brought regarding by the war between Russia and Ukraine. Because the war has been fought for too long, the dawn of peace cannot be seen, and inflation has been affecting companies following a period of time. To make a profit, the poor financial report of technology stocks is the first killing force. The United States announced a 2-yard interest rate hike is imminent, and the tightening monetary policy is the second killing force.
Due to the deep decline in the stock market, Cai Minghan believes that it is likely to replicate the market trend before and following the U.S. interest rate hike announced in March, that is, the stock market first reflected before the interest rate hike, and then fell deeply and rebounded following the interest rate hike.
However, the key factor that determines the trend of the stock market, Cai Minghan believes that “the ceasefire of the Russian-Ukrainian war” is the correct solution. For example, the fundamentals of TSMC are fine, but the stock price dropped to 526 yuan last week, hitting a new low in nearly a year. The crux is that Russia The systemic risk of the Ukrainian war will continue to break down. If the war does not stop, foreign capital will sell too much, and the index will continue to bottom out.
Ye Xianwen, manager of the PGIM Prudential high-growth fund, pointed out that under the rising interest rates and inflation in the United States, this year’s corporate funds are obviously sold by foreign investors and bought by trustees; The lagging performance of stocks dragged down the weakness of Taiwanese technology stocks, which in turn affected the trend of the index.
Ye Xianwen said that the market is waiting for the results of the FOMC meeting held on May 3 and 4. If the tightening policy is as expected by the market, there will be a chance to rebound in the short term. In addition, the market is looking forward to the resumption of work in Shanghai following the May Day holiday in mainland China. The stock supply chain is bullish.
However, Ye Xianwen believes that due to the existence of external uncertainties, especially inflation and geopolitical risks, the volatility of Taiwan stocks in this quarter is inevitable. If you want to choose stocks, you should choose high-quality and promising value stocks or High-yield stocks can also take advantage of long-term trends such as the Internet of Things, 5G, and electric vehicles.
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