2023-11-09 01:42:00
U.S. soybean futures hover near two-month highs on demand support
Chicago soybean futures edged lower on Thursday, but the market hovered near a two-month high hit in the previous session as strong demand from China and delayed planting in Brazil continued to support prices.
Wheat fell, giving up some of the previous session’s gains, while corn fell.
As of 09:03 Beijing time, the main soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0.1% to 1,364.75 cents per bushel, but it was not far from the highest point since September 6 at 1,384.5 cents.
Wheat Wv1 fell 0.6% to 588.5 cents per bushel, and corn Cv1 fell 0.3% to 474.75 cents per bushel.
Trader estimates show that commodity funds increased speculative net long positions in corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean oil, and soybean meal on Wednesday (November 8). In the past 30 trading days, commodity funds have increased speculative net short positions in corn, soybean oil, and wheat, and increased speculative net long positions in soybean meal and soybeans.
The data in the table are traders’ estimates and are not final transaction data. Calculation method: The above net position data = open long contracts – open short contracts, that is, if the data is positive, it means “net long position”, if the data is negative, it corresponds to “net short position”, and 0 means open position. Long and open short positions are the same.
Fundamentals
Chinese importers bought at least five more cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Wednesday, marking a second straight day of aggressive buying, following booking their largest purchases in months the day before.
They added that the purchased soybeans, regarding 300,000 tons, will be shipped from U.S. Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest ports between December and March.
October Chicago soybean futures fell to a 22-month low amid U.S. harvest pressure and weak export demand. But futures have since trended higher as erratic weather poses problems for Brazil, the world’s top exporter, and demand for U.S. goods has propped up the market.
“The USDA’s 24-hour soybean sales announcement is what bulls want to see, adding support for soybean futures from the hot, dry weather expected in northern Brazil next week. The soybean sales announcement also confirms Brazil’s logistics issues,” said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist at Marex in Chicago.
Wheat rose on Wednesday as Ukrainian officials said a missile damaged a ship entering the Black Sea port in the Odessa region, raising new concerns regarding the Black Sea export corridor.
Heavy rains in recent weeks have come too late for Argentina’s wheat harvest, with the Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday lowering its 2023/24 production forecast by 800,000 tons.
The new forecast lowered Argentina’s expected wheat harvest to 13.5 million tonnes, just above the 11.5 million tonnes expected in 2022/23, which has been hit by the worst drought in the country’s history.
As of Wednesday’s close, an overview of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as reported by multiple governments and private sources:
market news
World stock markets tumbled on Wednesday and the dollar weakened as some investors embraced the idea that while the Federal Reserve may have stopped raising rates, rates will remain higher for longer.
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