The United States and Russia held talks over Ukraine, but no agreement was reached. The U.S. repeatedly demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops stationed in the Ukraine border region, and Russia repeatedly demanded a halt to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) advance eastward. There was no dramatic breakthrough, as neither side was willing to make concessions first. Tension, stalemate, and tug-of-war are expected to continue for a considerable amount of time in the future. However, there are some views that the risk of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine becoming a reality has been alleviated somewhat and it has entered the management phase.
The delegation of the two countries led by US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russian Vice Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov held security talks for eight hours in Geneva, Switzerland on the 10th (local time). This was a negotiating session prepared when Russia deployed 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine from the end of last year and the possibility of an invasion earlier this year increased. However, the talks ended without any agreement.
The talks focused on the adoption of security documents between Russia and the West, such as the United States and NATO. The United States repeatedly insisted on the preemptive withdrawal of Russian troops. “It has been very clear[to Russia]that it is very difficult to have a constructive, productive and successful diplomacy without easing tensions,” Sherman said in a briefing following the meeting.
In the prior consultation held on the 9th, Deputy Secretary Sherman emphasized the U.S. commitment to the international principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity and the freedom of sovereign states to choose their own alliances. The US is considering financial sanctions, export controls, and military aid to Ukraine as pressure cards from Russia.
At the meeting, the United States confirmed that additional negotiations might be conducted in accordance with Russia’s mutual measures in the case of ground exercises and deployment of missiles and strategic bombers. Some analysts say that the key is how the Russian side will fulfill other security-related promises that will replace NATO’s request to stop moving forward in the future.
On the other hand, Russia demanded the withdrawal of NATO military facilities installed in Eastern European countries since 1997 at the summit. At a briefing following the meeting, Vice Minister Ryabkov pointed out that “there are doubts regarding the (negotiation) work with the United States without NATO’s progress on the non-proliferation issue and the ban on the deployment of missiles on the Russian border.”
At the same time, he warned that Russia’s response in the event of a failure in negotiations would take on a military and technical character. He also made clear his intention to continue training in the Ukrainian border.
The New York Times reported that Russia had begun deploying military helicopters across its borders that might be used in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. However, it was also analyzed that the possibility of an actual attack was low due to local weather conditions that made it difficult to maneuver the tank until February.
The US and Russia left room for further dialogue. Deputy Minister Sherman will travel to Brussels, Belgium on the 11th to brief NATO on the contents of the meeting. On the 12th and 13th, NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will sit face to face with Russia one following another. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed on the 11th that France, Germany and Russia hold a summit.
Washington = Jeong Sang-won correspondent [email protected]
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