2024-01-15 22:34:02
At a meeting with Taiwan’s incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, former U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley praised the self-governing island’s democracy as a “shining example to the world.” Hadley said that “American commitment to Taiwan is rock solid.” Former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said the delegation traveled to Taiwan to “underscore bipartisan U.S. support for our longstanding friendship with Taiwan.”
During Tsai’s eight years in office, Taiwan has strengthened its ties with its democratic partners, particularly the United States. Despite the severance of official diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979, the United States remains the island’s main diplomatic ally and supplier of military equipment and intelligence.
Lai committed to continuity
Lai Ching-te, the winner of Saturday’s presidential election, has pledged to continue Tsai’s policies. The U.S. delegation also met with him and his vice president-elect Hsiao Bi-khim, once Taiwan’s top envoy to the U.S., on Monday. “I am confident that as we work together, our relationship will continue to develop and become an important force in defending peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region,” Lai said.
AP/Evelyn Hockstein US Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Taiwan – thereby angering Beijing
Blinken snubs Beijing
The visit came following U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday congratulated Lai on his election victory and congratulated Taiwan’s people for “once once more demonstrating the strength of their robust democratic system and electoral process.” The statement sparked an angry response from Beijing, which views Taiwan as its own territory.
On Sunday, China’s Foreign Ministry said the statement “seriously violates the one-China principle” and the U.S. promise to maintain only cultural, commercial and other unofficial relations with Taiwan. “It also sends a completely wrong signal to the separatist forces advocating Taiwan independence. We deeply regret this and strongly reject it, and we have made serious representations to the US side,” the ministry said.
Archyde.com/Ann Wang Joy at the DPP election victory: The idea of “reunification” with China is extremely unpopular on the island
Further expressions of displeasure from Beijing are to be expected, but according to experts, the strongest signal will not come until May, when Lai formally takes office. It might be military exercises around the island, restrictions on imports from Taiwan – or both. There are examples from the past, for example when the then Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, paid a visit to Taiwan in 2022. China responded by holding large-scale exercises and sending fighter jets and warships to remind people of the threat of invasion.
China’s aggressiveness dampened
China prefers “peaceful reunification.” But that seems increasingly unlikely; 90 percent of Taiwan’s population supports maintaining the status quo, which means that the island will not declare independence but will not join China either. The restrictions on democracy and freedoms that China imposed following the mass protests in Hong Kong in 2019 serve as a chilling example.
But China’s urge to actually intervene in Taiwan is currently tempered by two considerations. On the one hand, Beijing wants to stabilize its relationship with the USA – all the more so as the election year there brings with it many uncertainties. On the other hand, China is struggling with problems at home, especially the weakening economy. So the saber rattling will continue, but actual consequences are not expected for the time being following the election result, which was unpleasant for China.
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