2023-08-14 06:37:00
U.S. crude oil trading strategy: demand worries + dollar strength, the signal of oil price peaking is further strengthened
On Monday (August 14) during the Asian-European session, U.S. crude oil fluctuated and weakened, hitting a four-day low of $82.03 per barrel at one point. Worries regarding the weak economic recovery of major Asian countries and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar put pressure on oil prices. In addition, last week The U.S. oil rig count held steady at 525, snapping an eight-week losing streak.
From a technical point of view, the signal of oil price peaking has increased, and we need to beware of further downside risks in the oil price outlook.
However, production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to reduce oil inventories for the rest of the year, potentially pushing prices higher, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report on Friday.
A Russian warship fired warning shots at a northbound cargo ship in the southwestern Black Sea on Sunday, ratcheting up tensions in Ukraine and a region key to Russian goods exports.
“Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine have increased the likelihood of Black Sea trade disruptions,” ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that the Black Sea handles around 15-20% of Russian oil sales.
CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said oil prices might be range-bound this week as a weak economic recovery in major Asian countries and a stronger dollar might weigh on prices, but OPEC+ will do whatever it takes to keep supplies tight and stabilize the market.
There is no important economic data released this trading day. Pay attention to the market’s expected changes in China’s data on Tuesday morning and US retail sales data on Tuesday evening, and pay attention to news related to geopolitical situations.
Daily line level: unilateral rise and then fall; oil prices recorded a “swallowing” bearish top K-line combination near the April high, MACD top divergence has a dead cross trend, the red column shrinks and then turns green, KDJ high dead cross, implying Oil prices initially peaked, and the market outlook turned to a downward trend. At least there is a greater opportunity to confirm the position around the May 24 high of 74.71.
In the short term, first pay attention to the support around 81.00 and 80.00, especially the 80 integer mark, the 23.6% retracement level, last week’s low point and the 21-day moving average support are also near this position. If this support is lost, it will increase the bearish signal in the market outlook. For further support, refer to the low point around 78.68 on August 3, and the high point support on July 13 around 77.31.
The resistance of the 5-day moving average above is currently around 83.07, and the resistance at the high point last Friday was around 83.79. If this position can be recovered, it will weaken the short-term bearish signal.
Resistance: 83.07; 83.79; 84.87; 85.81;
Support: 81.00; 80.00; 78.68; 77.31;
Short-term operation recommendations: short rallies.
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