The United States announced on Tuesday (13th) that the annual growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI) in August was 8.3%, which was slightly lower than the previous value of 8.5%, but higher than the market expectation of 8.1%; The annual growth rate of the CPI was reported at 6.3%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 6.1% and the previous value of 5.9%. Both inflation indicators were higher than expected, which may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its third consecutive rate hike of 3 yards ( 75 basis points).
On a monthly basis, the CPI in August was reported at 0.1%, a slight increase from 0% in July, and higher than the expected -0.1%; it is worth noting that the core CPI in August rose to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%, higher than The market expected 0.3%, highlighting that inflation is still heating up.
After the data was released,US dollar indexThe short-term rise is regarding 90 points, and it is now at 108.72; the spotgoldIt fell nearly $16 and is now at $1,715.42; the three major U.S. stock futures indexes fell in a short-term.that fingerFutures fell more than 2%,S&P 500 IndexFutures fell 1.76%,DowFutures fell 1.25%.U.S. 10-year Treasury yieldreported 3.295%.
Fed’s 3rd rate hike in September is imperative
The slowdown in US CPI in August may not prevent the Fed from raising interest rates by 3 yards at next week’s monetary policy meeting, and will not ease policy until the CPI falls to the target level of 2%.
Goldman Sachs trader John Flood once said: “Interestingly, when Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal reporter who analyzed the Fed’s precise decision-making direction, published an article last week, it was effectively the Fed’s advance announcement of the September 21 monetary policy meeting. The decision to raise interest rates by 3 yards.”
After the data was released, CME’s FedWatch tool showed that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 3 yards in September rose to 82%, the probability of a rate hike of 4 yards (100 basis points) rose to 18%, and the probability of a rate hike of 2 yards rose to 18%. (50 basis points) chance down to 0%.
Continually updated…
