According to data released by the University of Michigan on Friday (30th), consumer confidence in September increased slightly from the previous month, and consumers’ long-term inflation expectations hit a new low since April 2021, but short-term inflation expectations have climbed But it is still at a one-year low. In addition, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on the same day fell below the 50 line of prosperity and decline to 45.7, far below market expectations and hitting a new low in more than two years, which means that the US economy is showing a red light.
Data released by the University of Michigan showed that the final value of the confidence index in September was 58.6, lower than market expectations and the initial value of 59.5, but slightly higher than the final value of 58.2 in August. In terms of other indices, the final value of the current situation index was reported at 59.7, a new high since May this year, better than the expected and initial value of 58.9, and the final value in August was 58.6; The final value for August was 58.
In terms of inflation expectations, which have attracted much attention from the market, the final value of consumers’ long-term inflation expectations for 5 to 10 years in September further fell to 2.7%, the lowest since April 2021 and lower than the initial value of 2.8%. The final short-term inflation forecast for the next 1 year rose slightly to 4.7% from the initial estimate of 4.6%, but remained close to a one-year low.
Falling energy prices but rising food prices have raised consumer uncertainty regarding near-term prices to a 40-year high. While lower oil prices have helped sentiment improve, consumer sentiment remains subdued by historical levels and shows signs of stalling. However, fuel prices are showing signs of picking up once more, while the Federal Reserve insists on fighting inflation, raising the prospect of a U.S. recession.
Inflation expectations are likely to remain relatively volatile in the coming months, as that uncertainty is unlikely to abate in the face of continued pressure on global inflation, said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Survey.
The report also showed that most consumers expect their incomes to grow in the coming year, but only 16% expect their incomes to outpace inflation. In addition, consumers’ assessment of durable goods purchases improved in September, but remained near record lows.
Chicago PMI plunges to 45.7 in September, far below expectations
The Chicago business vane data released on the same day, that is, the Chicago PMI commonly known by the market, plummeted to 45.7, which was not only lower than the line of prosperity and decline, but also far less than the 52.2 last month and the market’s expected 51.8, hitting a new low in more than two years, which means that the U.S. economy Lights up red.
The Chicago PMI is jointly compiled by ISM-Chicago and the MNI Chicago Business Barometer; and is the last to reflect regional manufacturing economic activity before the ISM manufacturing index for the United States is released next Monday (October 3). The data.
The market expects the U.S. ISM manufacturing index to be released on Monday to be weaker, but still in expansionary territory. In terms of details, the data’s price index, new orders and employment index may show moderate weakness, but the export orders index is expected to turn positive and return to the line of prosperity and decline.