2024-09-22 03:30:00
[The Epoch Times, September 20, 2024](Epoch Times reporters Cheng Jing and Luo Ya interviewed and reported) Recently, the Chinese Communist Party announced the imposition of sanctions on nine U.S. military-industrial companies involved in arms sales to Taiwan in retaliation for the United States. Analysts believe that this sanction has no substantive meaning and is for the sake of little pink; currently under the leadership of the United States, the Taiwan Strait issue has become internationalized, and Beijing has no confidence in attacking Taiwan and has turned to the “python strategy”, but it is also difficult to be effective. .
Analysis of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and China’s counter-retaliation: No real meaning for little pink
On Wednesday (18th), the Chinese Communist Party announced retaliatory measures against nine U.S. military industrial companies involved in arms sales to Taiwan, including freezing movable, immovable, and other types of property in China; prohibiting organizations and individuals in China from conducting relevant transactions with them , cooperation and other activities.
Previously, the U.S. State Department approved an arms sale to Taiwan worth $228 million on Monday. This arms sale mainly provides Taiwan with weapons and equipment parts, maintenance and other services. This is the 16th arms sale to Taiwan under US President Joe Biden.
The “Decision on Countermeasures against U.S. Military Industrial Enterprises” issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Communist Party of China stated that the United States has recently announced the sale of arms to Taiwan again, which seriously violates the one-China principle and the three Sino-U.S. joint communiqués, seriously interferes in China’s internal affairs, and harms the China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, etc.
The nine U.S. military companies sanctioned are: Sierra Nevada Corporation, Stick Rudder Enterprises LLC, Cubic Corporation, etc.
Zhong Zhidong, a research assistant at the National Defense Strategy and Resources Institute of the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security, told The Epoch Times, “Actually, this is not the first time. As long as the United States sells arms to Taiwan, the CCP imposes sanctions on these military industries. It has become a The new normal hopes to achieve deterrence and publicity effects.
“But in fact, the U.S. military industry has long been expected and prepared, so its actual impact, at least on U.S. companies, is very limited. What’s more, the military industry has almost no business in China.”
Su Ziyun, director of the National Institute of Defense Strategy and Resources, also told The Epoch Times that the CCP’s sanctions are more symbolic than substantive. “Beijing is doing this to express its dissatisfaction with the United States on the one hand, and more importantly to explain to the country that it is giving their little pink Hand over the past.
However, Su Ziyun said that it is worth noting that the CCP may further announce personal sanctions against senior executives of these companies, that is, CEOs, chairman of the board, etc., which means they are not allowed to enter China, etc. This will cause some psychological pressure, but there may be greater recoil.
For example, the CCP successively announced sanctions on some members of the European Parliament in 2019 and 2020, causing a strong backlash from the EU. Since then, the CCP’s wolf warrior diplomacy has become a matter of concern to the EU. Nearly four years have passed, Su Ziyun said, “They are beginning to taste the backlash, which is the re-election of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who vowed to seek to deter the Chinese Communist Party from invading Taiwan.”
“So Beijing may seem smart, but it is strategically confused,” he said. If the CCP goes further, it will arouse higher anti-CCP sentiment in the United States.
Analysis of Xi’s stance on “attacking Taiwan” twice in half a year: He may not have the confidence to afford failure
In recent years, the CCP has used coercion and intimidation against Taiwan. Zhong Zhidong believes that its force and methods have emerged in endlessly, and tensions in the Taiwan Strait have continued to rise. “As for the Chinese Communist Party’s armed invasion of Taiwan, everyone is very concerned about the timetable.”
After a visit to Xi in San Francisco in November 2023, a senior White House official said that Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping told Biden that he had seen U.S. media reports that China planned to attack Taiwan in 2027 or 2035, but in fact, “there is no such plan. No one told me about this.
In June this year, the Financial Times quoted sources as saying that Xi Jinping told European Commission President von der Leyen that the United States was trying to induce China to attack Taiwan, but he would not be fooled.
After taking office, Biden has publicly expressed the United States’ long-term security commitment to Taiwan at least five times. Most recently, Biden told TIME in June that the United States would not fail to defend Taiwan if Beijing tried to unilaterally change the status quo.
From Xi Jinping’s statements on attacking Taiwan in the past six months, Zhong Zhidong’s analysis shows that Xi Jinping currently lacks confidence in military preparations to attack Taiwan with force, especially if the intervention of the US military is considered. In June this year, Biden once again expressed his stance to help Taiwan. .
“Especially if you see that Xi Jinping has replaced two defense ministers chosen by himself, I believe Xi Jinping himself may not have that much confidence in whether he can really fight the corruption in the military within the CCP.”
“Second is of course Biden. His five statements about using force to defend Taiwan have indeed had a certain deterrent effect on the CCP and Xi Jinping, because he must bring in the U.S. military.
“Thirdly, I believe that Xi Jinping is very clear about the serious consequences of failure if he invades Taiwan by force. I think he is not ready to take such a risk because the risk is too high, not only for his personal political life, but also for the Communist regime. , and even the development of the entire country will have an irreversible blow.
However, Zhong Zhidong said, “You cannot believe his words and must judge based on the facts. Beijing has never given up using force to invade Taiwan, and at the same time it is actively preparing for using force to invade Taiwan. There is no doubt that this is of course also the current danger in the Taiwan Strait. Everyone believes that Taiwan will be very dangerous.
The U.S. plans to provide security assistance to Taiwan again, and the Taiwan Strait issue has become internationalized
However, as the Chinese Communist Party’s intimidation of Taiwan intensifies. Zhong Zhidong believes that “Europe and the United States as a whole, especially Western countries led by the United States, are now actively internationalizing the Taiwan Strait issue.”
Recently, a German warship passed through the Taiwan Strait. Zhong Zhidong said that warships from not only Germany but also allied partners of the United States will pass through Taiwan with increasing frequency. They hope to use this international Taiwan Strait issue to deter the CCP from unilaterally changing the current situation in the Taiwan Strait. , of course I believe this situation will put a lot of pressure on Beijing.
The United States once again expressed support for Taiwan’s military. On Saturday (21st), Defense News quoted U.S. congressional aides and officials as revealing that the U.S. security assistance plan to Taiwan worth $567 million has been approved by the Pentagon and is currently awaiting final approval from President Joe Biden. sign
This is the largest such aid to date, a 64% increase from last year’s $345 million aid package. A spokesman for the Taiwan Representative Office in the United States issued a statement saying: “Taiwan will continue to strengthen its defense capabilities and cooperate closely with the United States to actively maintain peace, stability and prosperity across the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region.”
Zhong Zhidong said, “If the CCP faces Taiwan alone, I believe it will find it relatively easy. If American factors and international factors are added, it will of course greatly increase the difficulty for the CCP to deal with Taiwan unilaterally. However, There is still little chance of a large-scale military conflict in the Taiwan Strait in the short term.
“Because Taiwan itself is very, very restrained to avoid this situation from happening. If the CCP wants to get involved, there is now a question of whether it has such capabilities. It is very difficult to attack Taiwan’s main island.”
The CCP is not strong enough to attack Taiwan and adopts the “python strategy”. Analysis: It may not be effective.
Generally speaking, Zhong Zhidong believes that “there is little chance of a big fight in the short term, and there is a chance of a misfire in a small fight, because you see that as the CCP continues to use so-called gray zone conflicts, such as military aircraft, warships, and even in Kinmen, Putting pressure on Taiwan will lead to misfires.
Regarding the situation across the Taiwan Strait, Su Ziyun believes that the CCP is adopting a “python strategy” to demonstrate its military power and influence operations in an attempt to undermine Taiwan’s will to defend itself.
The so-called “Anaconda Strategy” is a recent analysis by the Washington DC think tank “Foundation for Defense of Democracies”, which means that the Chinese Communist Party may use cyber attacks, disinformation and blockade measures to force Taiwan to surrender, rather than directly invading it.
However, Su Ziyun believes, “I think this part of the effect is very minimal, because recent polls show that approval of the CCP has reached a record low, falling to about 11%.”
“As time goes by, and the CCP’s attitude, like its announcement just now of the elimination of zero tariffs on Taiwan’s agricultural products, will only push Taiwan further. This is why Xi Jinping’s hands are often incompatible, and his goals and means do not match , so he is just throwing a stone at himself in the foot.
Su Ziyun said, “As for whether there will be a war, it depends not only on Beijing, but also on Taiwan’s own defense capabilities. Only weakness will allow the virus to invade, so unless Taiwan’s military capabilities are too weak, an amphibious attack on Taiwan must be launched Attacking is difficult and highly risky.
“Once it fails, it will be detrimental to the Chinese Communist Party. Therefore, in addition to asking Beijing, we must also ask Taiwan itself. Only if Taiwan shows sufficient strength can it maintain peace. This has been the history of mankind for more than two thousand years. It proves that if you want peace, you must prepare for war.
Editor in charge: Fang Ming#
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