2023-10-09 01:38:00
2023/10/09 10:38 Weather News
As of 9:00 a.m. on October 9th (Monday), Typhoon No. 15 (Bolaven) is moving west-northwest near the Truk Islands. The maximum wind speed near the center reached 30 m/s, and it became a storm.
Please pay close attention to future typhoon information as it will develop into a very strong typhoon and will pass the waters near Ogasawara around the 13th (Friday). In the second half of the week, it will gradually change course to the northeast, and is unlikely to approach Honshu.
▼Typhoon No.15 October 9th (Monday) 9:00 am
Center location Near Truk Islands
Size class //
Strength class //
Move northwest west 10 km/h
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed 30 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 45 m/s
» Latest typhoon information
Even if you pass from a distance, be careful of strong winds and high waves in Ogasawara.
Typhoon No. 15 is expected to continue moving northward while rapidly intensifying, and is expected to become extremely powerful on the 11th (Wednesday). The central pressure is expected to drop to 920 hPa by the time it reaches the waters near Ogasawara on Friday the 13th.
At present, it appears to be passing some distance from the Ogasawara Islands, but from around the 12th (Thursday) the winds will gradually become stronger and the sea will become rough. Please be careful of strong winds and high waves on Friday the 13th.
From the 12th (Thursday) onwards, it is expected to gradually change its course towards the east, approaching Honshu and the possibility of any impact being felt is low.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Reference Results of course simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world
Each thin line in this diagram represents the result of a simulation of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These members are obtained through the process of ensemble forecasting, and are shown here to give you an idea of the wide range of possible paths.Comparing these members, it can be seen that following moving northwest near the Mariana Islands, they tend to turn around near Ogasawara and move northeast, and the variation in course predictions is relatively small.
Although the error is small, we must not be complacent, as even the slightest deviation can greatly change the impact on the Ogasawara Islands.
Probability of entering the storm area of a typhoon
The following are the prefectural forecast areas where the probability of entering the typhoon’s storm region within the next 5 days is 3% or higher. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 24%
Okinawa main island region
Northern/central southern main island 27%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 29%
Kumejima 27%
Dadongdo Island 9%
Miyakojima region 23%
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island region 18%
Yonagunijima region 11%
First typhoon in October
This is the first typhoon in regarding a week since Typhoon Koinu, which formed at the end of September and was moving westward in the South China Sea. This is the first typhoon to occur in October.
The average number of typhoons in October is 3.4, which tends to be less than in the summer, but September to October is a period when many typhoons approach and land in the Honshu area, so we cannot let our guard down.
It is possible that typhoons that will affect the Japanese archipelago will occur in the future, so please do not relax your measures once morest typhoons and heavy rain.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode
typhoon name
There are 140 typhoon names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Commission,” and they are assigned in the order in which they occur.
The name of Typhoon No. 15, Bolaven, was proposed by Laos and is taken from the name of a plateau in southern Laos.
» Radar typhoon mode
Reference materials etc.
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