one,live weather
1. Domestic situation
Yesterday, strong wind and rain occurred in Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Taiwan and other places:From 08:00 yesterday to 06:00 today, due to the influence of the peripheral cloud system of typhoon “Plum Blossom”, there were heavy to heavy rains in parts of northeastern Zhejiang, southeastern Jiangsu, Shanghai and northern Taiwan Island, Ningbo and Zhoushan in Zhejiang, Suzhou and Nantong in Jiangsu, Local heavy rains (100-215 mm) in eastern Shanghai and other local heavy rains (250-286 mm) in northern Taiwan, with the maximum hourly rainfall of 30-70 mm in the above-mentioned areas; 7-70 mm in coastal areas of northeastern Fujian, Zhejiang and islands and reefs 8 gusts, local 9-10. In addition, heavy rains or heavy rains occurred in parts of Yunnan, southwestern Guizhou, northern Chongqing, western Hubei, and southern Shaanxi, and local heavy rains (100-153 mm) in southwestern Guizhou, Chongqing Chengkou, etc.; Xinjiang Yili and the area along the Tianshan Mountains Moderate rain, local heavy rain.
2. Live abroad
Strong precipitation occurred in places such as the Indian peninsula and Southeast Asia:Indian Peninsula, Southeast Asia, Western Siberia, Far East, Central Europe, Southern Eastern Europe, Northern Canada, Eastern Central America, Alaska, Mexico, Northern South America, Central Australia, North Island of New Zealand, West Africa, Northern Central Africa, Northern East Africa, etc. There will be moderate to heavy rain, local heavy rain or heavy rain, accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
High temperatures in West Asia and North Africa：The Arabian Peninsula, the Iranian Plateau, the Mesopotamia Plain, the southern Central Asia, the Indus Plain, North Africa, the southern Illyrian Peninsula, the western and southeastern coastal areas of the United States, northern Mexico, central Brazil, northern Australia and other places where the highest temperature exceeded 35°C, of which, some areas reach 38-40°C, and local areas exceed 43°C.
Second, the key weather forecast
1、Domestic key weather
(1)typhoon“Plum Blossom” has moved into the East China Sea
The Central Meteorological Observatory issued an orange typhoon warning at 06:00 on September 13: This year’s No. 12 typhoon “Meihua” moved into the southern part of the East China Sea in the early morning of today (13th), and intensified into a strong typhoon at 5 o’clock in the morning. Its center is located about 490 kilometers south-east of Xiangshan County, Zhejiang Province. Above, it is 25.5 degrees north latitude and 124.1 degrees east longitude. The maximum wind force near the center is 14 (42 m/s), the lowest pressure in the center is 955 hPa, the radius of the seventh-level wind circle is 220-260 kilometers, and the tenth-level wind circle has a radius of 60 kilometers. , the radius of the twelve-level wind circle is 30 kilometers.
It is expected that the “Plum Blossom” will move from the north to the northwest at a speed of 10-15 kilometers per hour, and the intensity will be strengthened. It will gradually approach the coast from Wenling to Zhoushan in Zhejiang Province. Landfall in coastal areas (typhoon level or strong typhoon level, 38-45 m/s, level 13-14); after landfall, “Plum Blossom” will continue to move to the northwest, and its intensity will gradually weaken (see Figure 1).
Affected by it, from 08:00 on September 13 to 08:00 on September 14, the Bashi Strait, the northern part of the Taiwan Strait, the ocean to the east of Taiwan, the southwestern waters of the Yellow Sea, most of the East China Sea and the waters near the Diaoyu Islands, the Yangtze River Estuary, Hangzhou Bay and Taiwan Island. There will be strong winds of magnitude 6-8 and gusts of magnitude 9-11 on the northern and eastern coasts, the coast of Zhejiang, the northern coast of Fujian, the coast of Shanghai, and the southeastern coast of Jiangsu. , The wind on the sea near the center of “Plum Blossom” is 12-14, and the gust can reach 15-16. From the 13th to the 15th, there were heavy to heavy rains in northern Taiwan Island, eastern China and other places, heavy rains in some areas, and local heavy rains.
Figure 1 Probability forecast map of typhoon “Meihua” in the next 96 hours
（2）Significant precipitation in Sichuan Basin, Guizhou and other places
Affected by the shear line, from the night of the 13th to the 15th, there were moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in the Sichuan Basin, western Guizhou, and northern Yunnan.
2. Foreign key weather
（1）Strong precipitation in Indochina Peninsula and other places in India
In the next three days, Indian Peninsula, Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia, Central Russia and the Far East, Southern Northern Europe, Western Southern Europe, Southern Eastern Europe, Eastern Central America and Alaska, Eastern Canada, Mexico, Southern Australia, New Zealand Island, Northwestern South America, There are moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in southern Brazil, West Africa, and northern Central Africa. Some of the above-mentioned areas are accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
（2）High temperatures continue in West Asia and North Africa
In the next three days, the Arabian Peninsula, the Mesopotamian Plain, the Iranian Plateau, the Indus River Plain, southern Central Asia, North Africa, the United States and the western coast of Mexico, northern Australia, and central Brazil will have high temperatures above 35°C in parts of the country. , the daily maximum temperature in some parts of West Asia, North Africa and other places exceeds 42 ℃.
3. Specific forecast for the next three days
From 08:00 on September 13th to 08:00 on the 14th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of Xinjiang along the western Tianshan Mountains, eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western Sichuan Basin, southern Yunnan, southwestern Guizhou, northwestern Guangxi, southeastern Anhui, central and southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, most of Zhejiang, and northern Taiwan Island. Among them, there are local torrential rains or heavy rains (100-140 mm) in Shanghai, northern Zhejiang, southeastern Jiangsu, and northern Taiwan Island, and there are sleet or snow in high-altitude mountainous areas in Xinjiang and northern Tibet. There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 and above in parts of western Inner Mongolia, the southern Xinjiang Basin, western Gansu, and the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta. There are dusty weather in southern Xinjiang Basin, western Gansu, western Inner Mongolia and other places. There are winds of magnitude 6 to 8 in parts of the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and beyond, and the Bashi Strait, and gusts of magnitude 10 to 12 above the southern part of the East China Sea and east of Taiwan (see Figure 2).
Figure 2 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on September 13 – 08:00 on 14th)
From 08:00 on September 14th to 08:00 on the 15th,Most of Liaodong Peninsula, central and eastern Shandong, most of Jiangsu, eastern and southern Anhui, Shanghai, most of Zhejiang, western and southern Sichuan Basin, and southern Yunnan experienced moderate to heavy rain. Among them, eastern Shandong Peninsula and southeastern Anhui , There are heavy rains or heavy rains (100-180 mm) locally in the southern and eastern coastal areas of Jiangsu, Shanghai, and northern Zhejiang. There are 4-5 winds in parts of western Inner Mongolia and other places (see Figure 3). There are winds of magnitude 6 to 8 and above in parts of the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the northern part of the East China Sea.
Figure 3 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on September 14th – 08:00 on September 15th)
From 08:00 on September 15th to 08:00 on the 16th,Northwestern Heilongjiang, eastern Jilin, southern and eastern Liaoning, eastern Qinghai, southeastern Tibet, southern Sichuan Basin, western Guizhou, southeastern Yunnan, most of Shandong, eastern and southern Anhui, Jiangsu, and northwestern Zhejiang, etc. To heavy rain, among them, there are heavy rains in parts of southern Liaodong Peninsula, southern and eastern Shandong, eastern and southern Anhui, and western Jiangsu, and local heavy rains (100-130 mm) in southern Liaodong Peninsula. There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 and above in parts of eastern Xinjiang, Hexi in Gansu, and central Jiangsu (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on September 15th – 08:00 on September 16th)
4. Influence and Concern
1. Pay attention to the wind and rain impact of typhoon “Plum Blossom” on the coastal areas of East China, the East China Sea, and the Huanghuai waters;
2. In Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and other places with heavy rainfall, pay attention to the possible flash floods and geological disasters, and continue to provide meteorological support services in Sichuan earthquake areas and along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway;
3. Autumn harvest and autumn planting meteorological services;
4. Pay attention to the changing trends and impacts of meteorological droughts in the Yangtze River Basin.
Make:Zhang Xidi Meng Qingtao Issued by Huang Wei and Liu Lu: Sun Jun
[
责编：杨煜 ]