Typhoon Mawah 2023: Latest Weather News and Forecast for Okinawa and Japan

2023-05-31 01:22:00

2023/05/31 10:22 Weather News

As of 9:00 on May 31 (Wednesday), a large and strong typhoon No. 2 (Mawah) is slowly moving north over the sea south of Okinawa. Sakishima islands such as Miyakojima and Ishigakijima are in a strong wind area with wind speeds of 15m/s or more.

It will continue to slowly move northward, and is expected to approach the Sakishima Islands around Thursday, June 1, and the main island of Okinawa around Friday, June 2. Due to the slow movement, there is a risk that the effects of heavy rain, storms, high waves, etc. will continue for a long time in Okinawa.

▼ Typhoon No. 2 May 31 (Wednesday) 9:00
Central location South of Okinawa
size class large
Strength class Strong
moving north slowly
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed 35 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 50 m/s
＞＞The latest typhoon information

Full-scale stormy weather in the Sakishima Islands after the evening

31st (Wednesday) midnight rain and wind forecast

The outer clouds of the typhoon body have already covered the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa. The wind and waves are getting stronger little by little, and the maximum instantaneous wind speed until 9:40 today was 24.2m/s at Ishigaki Airport and 21.8m/s at Miyakojima. Wave warnings have been issued for Miyakojima, Ishigakijima, and Yonagunijima.

After this evening, active rain clouds surrounding the typhoon are expected to cover the Sakishima Islands, and the average wind speed is expected to exceed 20m/s. It is necessary to be vigilant as the rain and wind will become strong and stormy weather will occur.

Due to the slow movement of the typhoon, heavy rains, storms and high waves are expected to continue for at least a few days. When the wind and rain are strong, do not go out unnecessarily and stay in a safe place.

Increased speed error after the weekend

Reference Results of simulations of paths calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each circle in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.

Until June 1 (Thursday), which is shown in purple, the variation of the circles is relatively small, and the course is considered to be highly reliable. However, on the 2nd (Friday) shown in yellow, a variation toward the northeast appears, and on the 3rd (Saturday) shown in light blue, it expands further.

The larger forecast circles after the 4th (Sunday) are thought to mainly represent the difference in speed. Please continue to check the latest typhoon information.

Seasonal rain front activates, causing heavy rain in western and eastern Japan

Forecast of rain clouds in the morning of the 2nd (Friday)

Even in western Japan and eastern Japan, which are far from the typhoon, it is necessary to pay attention to heavy rain. In particular, the day after tomorrow, June 2nd (Friday), the seasonal rain front is expected to move north due to the approaching trough of atmospheric pressure.

Moist air around the typhoon is expected to increase in activity as it continues to flow toward the front. Heavy rain is expected in a wide area of ​​the country, and there is a risk of heavy rain in western Japan and eastern Japan.

The risk of road flooding, river flooding, landslides, etc. increases, so it is necessary to check the latest information and take early warning.
>> Pinpoint Weekly Weather Forecast

The size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with “strength” or “size”

A feature of this typhoon is that the “forecast circle” indicated by the dashed circle in the track map is very large. Over the next five days, the typhoon forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency is the largest in five levels (C rank).

The size of this forecast circle does not indicate the strength or size of the typhoon, but rather the degree of uncertainty of its course.

According to the current definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the forecast circle indicates the area where the center of the typhoon is expected to enter with a probability of 70%. It can be read with low confidence.

Understand typhoon information accurately and take appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon

The probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon within 120 hours is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 93 %
Okinawa Main Island 99 %
Northern/Central/Southern Main Island 99%
Kerama and Aguni Islands 98%
Kumejima 89%
Daito Island area 25%
Miyakojima region 98 %
Yaeyama region 58 %
Ishigaki Island 58 %
＞＞Rain cloud radar typhoon mode

Time when typhoons start to increase

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April, and it was the first time in about a month that a typhoon had occurred.

The average number of typhoons in May is 1.0, which is about the same level as in December. As the number of typhoons peaks in August, the number of typhoons will begin to increase, so it would be a good idea to prepare for typhoons as soon as possible.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 2’s name “Mawar” was proposed by Malaysia and is derived from the Malay word for “rose”.
＞＞The latest typhoon information

Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, they change their course to the northeast near Okinawa and are relatively aligned on the course that advances in the sea south of Japan. However, there is a difference between passing near the coast of Japan and proceeding on the southern sea away from Japan.

In addition, there is a big difference in speed, and the timing of passing south of Japan differs by several days between fast and slow ones. Depending on the difference in speed, the period of impact in Okinawa and the timing of when the rain will intensify near Honshu will change, so please continue to check the latest information frequently.

Reference materials, etc.

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