“Typhoon Mahwah: Latest Updates and Forecasts”

2023-05-24 01:11:00

2023/05/24 10:11 Weather News

As of 09:00 on Wednesday, May 24, Typhoon Mahwah, a very strong typhoon, is moving slowly northwest over the southeastern seas of Guam.

From tomorrow, the 25th (Thursday), it is expected to further develop as it moves westward and become a ferocious force. On the 29th (Monday), it is expected to reach the sea south of the Nansei Islands with a ferocious force. Part of the Sakishima Islands is in the storm warning zone, so early warning is required.

▼ Typhoon No. 2 As of 9:00 on Wednesday, May 24
Central location Mariana Islands
Size class //
Strength class Very strong
move northwest slowly
Central air pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed 50 m/s (near the center)
The maximum instantaneous wind speed is 70 m/s
＞＞The latest typhoon information

On the 28th (Sunday), the central atmospheric pressure will reach 905hPa.

Radar image (National Weather Service)

The intensity of the typhoon increased rapidly yesterday, and the eyes of the typhoon became quite clear. Around the eye of the typhoon, an extremely developed group of cumulonimbus clouds called “wall clouds” had formed, but the radar images show that the wall clouds have now collapsed.

This is called the “eye-wall replacement cycle (ERC)” and is a characteristic change seen in typhoons that have developed to a violent intensity or close to it.

In the future, it is expected to develop once more and become a ferocious force as it moves through areas where the sea surface temperature is close to 30°C. At 9 o’clock on the 28th (Sunday), the peak of development, the central pressure is expected to reach 905hPa, the maximum wind speed near the center is 55m/s, and the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to reach 80m/s.

World Meteorological Agency Forecasts

Reference Results of simulations of paths calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, following this, they tend to take a course toward the west and move from the Philippines to the south of Okinawa. After that, the variation in the course will increase, such as moving west and turning north, and it is not yet clear whether it will affect the Japanese archipelago. However, according to the Global Storm Center, which monitors tropical cyclones around the world for Weathernews, there are slightly more simulation results predicting a turn north than yesterday.

The error is expected to shrink as the date approaches, so please continue to obtain new information from time to time.
>> Pinpoint Weekly Weather Forecast

The size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with “strength” or “size”

A feature of this typhoon is that the “forecast circle” indicated by the dashed circle in the track map is very large. Over the next five days, the typhoon forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency is the largest in five levels (C rank).

The size of this forecast circle does not indicate the strength or size of the typhoon, but rather the degree of uncertainty of its course.

According to the current definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the forecast circle indicates the area where the center of the typhoon is expected to enter with a probability of 70%. It can be read with low confidence.

Understand typhoon information accurately and take appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

Time when typhoons start to increase

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April, and it was the first time in regarding a month that a typhoon had occurred.

The average number of typhoons in May is 1.0, which is regarding the same level as in December. As the number of typhoons peaks in August, the number of typhoons will begin to increase, so it would be a good idea to prepare for typhoons as soon as possible.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 2’s name “Mawar” was proposed by Malaysia and is derived from the Malay word for “rose”.

Reference materials, etc.

1684898417
#Typhoon #expected #intensify #tomorrow #affecting #Okinawa #weekendWeather #News