“Typhoon Mahwah: Latest Updates and Forecast Information”

2023-05-21 22:14:00

2023/05/22 07:14 Weather news

As of 6:00 on Monday, May 22, Typhoon Mahwah is moving northwest of the Caroline Islands.

From around the middle of the week, it will gradually change its course to the west and continue to develop, and it is expected to become a very strong force around the 24th (Wednesday).

▼ Typhoon No. 2 As of 6:00 on Monday, May 22
Central location Caroline Islands
Size class //
Strength class Strong
move northwest slowly
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed 35 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 50 m/s
» Latest typhoon information

Around the 24th, with a very strong force, it moved to the vicinity of Guam Island.

Around the 24th (Wednesday), there is a risk that it will become a very strong force and hit Guam directly. The Guam Meteorological Department has issued early warning information calling for people to prepare for evacuation in case of storms and storm surges.

After that, it will change course to the west and intensify further, and the maximum wind speed near the center is expected to reach 50m/s in the second half of the week.

Its course beyond next weekend is currently uncertain, suggesting a move northwest along the edge of the anticyclone before moving west or northeast. Depending on the course, it may affect Japan such as Okinawa. At this time, the forecast error is quite large, so please check the latest typhoon information frequently.

Reference Results of simulations of paths calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, following moving north to the vicinity of Guam, they tend to change course to the west and move from the Philippines to the south of Okinawa. After that, the variation in the course will increase, and it is not clear at this time whether it will affect the Japanese archipelago.

The error is expected to shrink as the date approaches, so please continue to obtain new information from time to time.
» Pinpoint Weekly Weather Forecast

The size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with “strength” or “size”

A feature of this typhoon is that the “forecast circle” indicated by the dashed circle in the track map is very large. Over the next five days, the typhoon forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency is the largest in five levels (C rank).

The size of this forecast circle does not indicate the strength or size of the typhoon, but rather the degree of uncertainty of its course.

According to the current definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the forecast circle indicates the area where the center of the typhoon is expected to enter with a probability of 70%. It can be read with low confidence.

Understand typhoon information accurately and take appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

Time when typhoons start to increase

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April, and it was the first time in regarding a month that a typhoon had occurred.

The average number of typhoons in May is 1.0, which is regarding the same level as in December. As the number of typhoons peaks in August, the number of typhoons will begin to increase, so it would be a good idea to prepare for typhoons as soon as possible.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 2’s name “Mawar” was proposed by Malaysia and is derived from the Malay word for “rose”.

Reference materials, etc.

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