Typhoon Gucheol Update: Latest News and Future Track Forecast for Japan and Surrounding Areas

2023-06-08 12:42:00

2023/06/08 21:42 Weather news

As of Thursday, June 8th at 21:00, strong Typhoon Gucheol is developing in the east of the Philippines. The maximum wind speed near the center became 35m/s and was raised to “strong” force.

After this, it is expected to gradually change its course to the northeast and pass south of Japan in the first half of the week. Please pay attention to future typhoon information as the impact on Japan will change depending on the slight north-south direction of the typhoon.

▼ Typhoon No. 3 Thursday, June 8, 21:00
Central location East of the Philippines
Size class //
Strength class Strong
move northwest slowly
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed 35 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 50 m/s
» Latest typhoon information

Passing south of Japan with a storm zone

Typhoon No. 3 is expected to become a little stronger as it moves through an environment suitable for development during this week. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s typhoon forecast, the central pressure is expected to reach 965hPa and the maximum wind speed near the center is expected to reach 40m/s on the 10th (Saturday) the day following tomorrow. Next week, the storm is expected to gradually weaken as it moves toward cooler waters, but it is possible that the storm will continue to be present even at latitudes near the Izu Islands.

Looking at the future track forecast, the typhoon is likely to move northwest along the edge of the high pressure system, and then gradually change its course to the northeast next week and pass south of Honshu.

Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, it seems that the tendency to move northwest and then to the northeast is almost the same, and the accuracy of the path prediction is relatively high.

However, even though the trends are the same, there is a width of several hundred kilometers or more in the course that can be taken, so a slight deviation will have a large impact on the Daito Island region of Okinawa, the Izu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and the Honshu area. It looks like it’s going to change. The error is expected to shrink as the days pass, so please pay attention to future information.

If the course moves north, there is a possibility that Honshu will also receive heavy rainfall.

The track forecast for Typhoon No. 3 is tighter and easter than Typhoon No. 2 the other day. In Okinawa, the impact is expected to be smaller than that of Typhoon No. 2.

At present, the accuracy of typhoon No. 3’s path forecast is relatively high, but there is still an error of several hundred kilometers in the north-south direction. The impact on the Izu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and the Honshu area is likely to change greatly due to this slight deviation in course.

If the course moves to the north, the pressure pattern will be similar to that of Typhoon No. 2, and due to the interaction with the seasonal rain front and the trough of pressure in the sky, around the 12th (Mon) to 13th (Tue). It is conceivable that the amount of rainfall will increase in the vicinity of Honshu as well. On the other hand, if the course turns south, it is possible that it will pass east of Japan without much impact.

This error is expected to shrink as the days go by, so please keep an eye out for future information.
» Pinpoint Weekly Weather Forecast

Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon

Areas with a 5% or higher probability of entering a typhoon’s storm zone within 120 hours are as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)

Tokyo
Southern Izu Islands 19%
Ogasawara Islands 23%
Okinawa Prefecture
Daito Island area 5%

The size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with “strength” or “size”

A feature of this typhoon is that the “forecast circle” indicated by the dashed circle in the track map is very large. Over the next five days, the typhoon forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency is the largest in five levels (C rank).

The size of this forecast circle does not indicate the strength or size of the typhoon, but rather the degree of uncertainty of its course.

According to the current definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the forecast circle indicates the area where the center of the typhoon is expected to enter with a probability of 70%. It can be read with low confidence.

Understand typhoon information accurately and take appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

Time when typhoons start to increase

Average number of typhoons

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April and Typhoon No. 2 occurred in May, and this Typhoon No. 3 will occur for the first time in regarding half a month.

The average number of typhoons in June is 1.7, which is the time when the number of typhoons starts to increase. This is the time when the rainy season front becomes more active, so please prepare measures once morest typhoons and heavy rain.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 3’s name, Guchol, was proposed by Micronesia and is derived from the Yap word for turmeric.

Reference materials, etc.

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