Typhoon Gucheol: Latest Updates and Future Impacts on Japan

2023-06-07 07:02:00

2023/06/07 16:02 Weather News

Typhoon No. 3 (Gucheol) is moving northwest in the east of the Philippines as of 15:00 on Wednesday, June 7.

In the future, the typhoon will intensify and move north with strong winds, and it is possible that it will pass south of Japan in the first half of next week and affect islands, so please pay attention to future typhoon information.

▼ Typhoon No. 3 Wednesday, June 7, 15:00
Central location East of the Philippines
Size class //
Strength class //
Movement Northwest 15 km/h
Central air pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed 23 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 35 m/s
＞＞The latest typhoon information

Slowly go north, then turn northeast and accelerate

Typhoon No. 3 is expected to slowly move northward, gradually gaining strength, and develop into a strong force with a strong wind area. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s typhoon forecast, it is expected to become a strong typhoon with a central pressure of 950hPa and a maximum wind speed of 40m/s on the 10th (Sat), three days from now.

Although it is still difficult to accurately predict the course of the typhoon due to the weak upper air flow, the typhoon will move northwest along the edge of the high pressure system and then change course to the east after Sunday 11th. The possibility of moving northeast while increasing speed is increasing.

Reference Results of simulations of paths calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, it seems that the tendency to move northwest and then to the northeast is almost the same, and it seems that the tendency of the course to move northeast in the south of Japan is increasing.

However, even though the trends are consistent, the possible courses are several hundred kilometers wide, so even a slight deviation is likely to greatly change the impact on Okinawa, the Izu Islands, and Honshu. The error is expected to shrink as the days pass, so please pay attention to future information.
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Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon

The probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon within 120 hours is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)

Tokyo 1 %
Ogasawara Islands 1 %
Miyazaki Prefecture 1 %
Kagoshima Prefecture (excluding the Amami region) 2%
Satsuma/Osumi region (excluding Koshikijima) 1 %
Tanegashima/Yakushima area 2%
Amami region 5 %
Okinawa main island region 2 %
Main Island North/Central South 2%
Kerama and Aguni Islands 1 %
Daito Island 31%

The size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with “strength” or “size”

A feature of this typhoon is that the “forecast circle” indicated by the dashed circle in the track map is very large. Over the next five days, the typhoon forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency is the largest in five levels (C rank).

The size of this forecast circle does not indicate the strength or size of the typhoon, but rather the degree of uncertainty of its course.

According to the current definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the forecast circle indicates the area where the center of the typhoon is expected to enter with a probability of 70%. It can be read with low confidence.

Understand typhoon information accurately and take appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

Time when typhoons start to increase

Average number of typhoons

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April and Typhoon No. 2 occurred in May, and this Typhoon No. 3 will occur for the first time in about half a month.

The average number of typhoons in June is 1.7, which is the time when the number of typhoons starts to increase. This is the time when the rainy season front becomes more active, so please prepare measures against typhoons and heavy rain.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 3’s name, Guchol, was proposed by Micronesia and is derived from the Yap word for turmeric.

Reference materials, etc.

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