2023-09-10 02:00:00
It is reasonable to assume that for many, Sebastian Kurz is not only a former but also a future bearer of hope. What does that do to the ÖVP?
Active and former turquoise ministers, the turquoise National Council President, former ÖVP chairmen like Josef Riegler and Wolfgang Schüssel, the suspended justice section head Christian Pilnacek – and in the middle Sebastian Kurz: The premiere of the film “Kurz – the Film” last week in a Vienna cinema became the summit meeting of all those who still cry for the ex-hopeful who resigned almost two years ago.
There are surprisingly many. And a surprising number still hold key positions in the republic today, such as Constitutional Minister Karoline Edtstadler, Economics Minister Martin Kocher and National Council President Wolfgang Sobotka. The incumbent Chancellor and party leader Karl Nehammer skipped the film premiere, but he personally honored the subsequent following-show party, which, as we can hear, lasted until the early hours of the morning.
Things like this don’t happen by chance. The film’s release was perfectly timed, namely a few weeks before the premiere of a critical film documentary that will be released in cinemas at the end of September; and a few weeks before the trial that the ex-chancellor will have to face in October on charges of giving false evidence. Coincidentally, it doesn’t happen that half of the ÖVP leadership is in a celebratory mood with their former hope. It is reasonable to assume that for many, Sebastian Kurz is not only a former but also a future bearer of hope. The person who was involuntarily removed from office himself keeps himself clever in the conversation – a newspaper interview here, a TV appearance there, then the film premiere in question – and you can bet: if Kurz, which is not ruled out, leaves the jury room in October with an acquittal, he will the voices calling for a comeback from the former vote maximizer can no longer be ignored.
Such a comeback would be completely absurd, because Kurz still has a number of cases on his hands, the explosiveness of which will far outshine the soon-to-be-heard accusation of making false statements. It should also be noted that the desire for Sebastian Kurz to return is rather underdeveloped among the powerful ÖVP state governors, as recent statements from the state capitals show. But this disdainful circumstance will not stop his fanboys and girls from propagating the return of their messiah.
The question is what all of this is doing to the current ÖVP. Karl Nehammer has been doing a solid job as both party leader and Chancellor for almost two years. Nevertheless, he doesn’t noticeably lose his footing either in the Sunday question (“Which party would you vote for?”) or in the Chancellor question (“Who would you directly vote for as head of government?”). The massive Sebastian Kurz presence in the media, which will probably increase in the coming weeks, will not be of any use to the current party leader and chancellor. The impression will grow as if Karl Nehammer is only an interim solution, a placeholder. These are not good conditions for achieving success in elections.
Even rumors that Sebastian Kurz might enter the election contest with his own list once morest the ÖVP are currently doing the rounds. Firstly, such a thing would be nonsensical because a split in the People’s Party would be the surest way to pave the way for Andreas Babler to the Chancellery. Sebastian Kurz is also likely to have little desire to sit on the backbenches of the National Council as the head of a bourgeois splinter group. But the same applies in this case: the mere fact of the rumor, as absurd as it is, contributes to the uncertainty of the ÖVP – and of all those who are considering voting for it in the coming elections (for the European Parliament, two state parliaments and the National Council). to give voice.
One can currently confidently assume that Karl Nehammer will lead the ÖVP into the next election and that Sebastian Kurz will remain a private citizen until further notice.
By the way, the question of how far Nehammer continues his predecessor’s policy was recently enriched with an interesting facet. Namely through Nehammer’s announcement that he wanted to invest billions in child care. When the coalition leaders at the time, Christian Kern and Reinhold Mitterlehner, had agreed on a corresponding measure, Kurz – then still foreign minister with the ambition to be in charge – wanted, as is well known, to “incite a federal state” for the kindergarten billion, which was a success for Kurz would have been to prevent the unpopular SPÖ-ÖVP coalition. But this is another story.
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