Turkey‘s Assyian Gamble: A Regional Power Play
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, and nowhere is this felt more keenly than in Türkiye. For years, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has hardened his stance against Assad, even as his international allies in the West sought to find a resolution to the Syrian conflict. Now, with the government in Damascus in disarray, Turkey seems poised to seize the initiative, capitalizing on the chaos to advance its own interests.
The benefits for Türkiye are undeniable. With its years of experience supporting rebel factions, Turkey is well positioned to exert influence in the power vacuum left by falling government.
On the Syrian border, Ankara’s priorities are clear. For years, President Erdogan has worked relentlessly to secure his border. He aims to establish a "security zone," thwarting what he sees as the most pressing threat: the Kurdish YPG, which Ankara considers an extension of the outlawed PKK.
WithSyrian Kurdish forces – particularly the YPG – facing a lack of US support and potential Turkish intervention, they have increasingly sought to negotiate with Damascus, creating a fragmented front that favors Ankara’s goals. The continued presence of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Manbij, until recently recaptured by Turkish-backed groups, underscores the complex web of loyalties that characterize the region.
Erdogan’s endeavors extend beyond security considerations.Millions of Syrian refugees have found refuge in Turkey, bringing a significant social and economic pressure.
"I will return these refugees to their country," declared Erdogan, signaling his intention to send Syrian citizens back to their homeland. The realities on the ground are more complex. An immediate return of such a massive influx’s not realistic, especially not as millions grapple with uncertainty and fear throughout Syria
However, amidst the uncertainty lies a dangerous opportunity.
A strengthened Turkish presence in Syria carries considerable risks. Erdogan’s shifting tactical alliances and their inherent fragility could have dangerous consequences. While the isolated base at Tartus underscores the diminishing Russian influence, it’s still unclear whether Moscow will willingness to relinquish control.
The future of Syria remains shrouded in uncertainty, with power delicately balanced between various factions. The road forward is complex. Can the new Syrian leadership compromise? Will Türkiye allow for Kurdish inclusion? Only time will tell, for now, Ankara appears to be in a winning position, leveraging the chaos to write its own terms for a new Syria.
– What are the possible negative consequences of TurkeyS actions in Syria, and how likely are they to occur?
Welcome back to the show. joining us today is Dr. Anya Petrova, an expert in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Dr. Petrova,the article paints a picture of Turkey seizing a unique chance in Syria,but it also highlights the risks involved. Do you think Turkey’s bold move is a gamble worth taking, or coudl it backfire spectacularly?
