2023-07-10 20:48:00
Turkish President Erdogan, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Vilnius Image: EPA
Surprise late in the evening: the Turkish president gives up his blockade on Sweden’s accession to NATO. Before that he had raised a completely new demand.
At 10:10 p.m. on Monday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was able to announce a historic decision: “Sweden will become a full member of the alliance.” He had previously spent almost five hours in consultation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, interrupted by a conversation Erdogan with EU Council President Charles Michel. In the end, the Turkish President agreed to forward the Swedish accession protocol to his parliament and ensure its speedy ratification. Since Parliament is regarding to go on its summer recess, from which it will not return until the beginning of October, this is likely to drag on for some time. However, there is no question that it will happen, because Erdogan’s AKP party is loyal to him, and the opposition supports the move anyway.
At first it didn’t look like an agreement. Because before his departure for Vilnius, Erdogan had suddenly linked Sweden’s NATO accession to his country’s admission to the European Union. “First you should open the way for Turkey to the EU, then (…) we will open the way for Sweden to NATO,” he said. He will convey this message to the leaders there. After a phone call with Biden on Sunday, the Turkish President’s Office announced that it expected “a message of open and strong support from the leading EU states and the EU leadership” during the meeting. Until then, Ankara had made ratification of Sweden’s accession conditional on the country taking more decisive action once morest Kurdish terrorists. Erdoğan said that Stockholm “has taken some steps in the right direction by changing its anti-terrorist legislation”. However, these steps were countered by the fact that “supporters of the PKK/PYD/YPG continue to demonstrate openly and praise terrorism”.
New impetus between the EU and Türkiye?
But all of this turned out to be theater thunder on Monday evening. In a joint declaration, Sweden committed itself to long-term cooperation with Ankara in combating terrorism, with annual ministerial meetings. Stoltenberg agreed to set up the new post of anti-terrorist coordinator. On the EU side, Stockholm pledged that it will “actively support measures to revitalize Turkey’s EU accession process, including modernization of the EU Customs Union and visa liberalisation”. These have been Turkish concerns for a long time – but they by no means achieve their goal. Following his long-planned talks with Erdogan, EU Council President Michel said opportunities had been explored to boost EU-Turkey cooperation. In doing so, he was able to refer to the conclusions of the most recent European Council, which commissioned foreign policy chief Borrell to draw up a “strategic” and “forward-looking report”.
The late-night breakthrough was good news for NATO – following the diplomats of the member countries had still not been able to find a common language on Ukraine’s accession prospects. This is what the heads of state and government will have to deal with when they arrive in Vilnius on Tuesday morning – which is exactly what the alliance had actually wanted to avoid. As early as 2008, at the Bucharest summit, the leaders themselves lent a hand – and decided to offer Ukraine (and Georgia) the prospect of membership without linking this to a concrete plan. That still weighs heavily on the coalition’s stomach – so much so that it is now wrestling once more with how to describe the country’s prospect of accession.
Of course, it is not primarily regarding words, but regarding the actual perspective of the country. On one side are eight eastern states, with the Baltics and Poland at the top. They want to “invite” Kiev to join the alliance following the end of the Russian war. This corresponds to the expectations of Ukraine, whose President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has threatened that he will only come to Vilnius on Wednesday if there is still something to be decided there.
On the other side is the United States, the most important and powerful member, and Germany. Basically, they want to stick to the decision of 2008 and not make any concrete commitments to Ukraine. In between, the other states cavort. They want to send a positive message that goes beyond Bucharest, but not make promises that they may not be able to keep – because of the unpredictable development of the war and the subsequent peace negotiations with Russia. A sign in this sense would be the waiver of an action plan for membership for Kiev. This element is now emerging as a consensus among everyone, but further signals are still being struggled for.
Biden has yet to commit to Ukraine joining NATO
Speaking to CNN on Sunday, US President Joe Biden made it clear that the United States definitely did not want to be drawn into a war with Russia. If Ukraine were to be admitted now, in the middle of a war, “then we are all at war” – a consequence of the obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. After that, he said Kyiv “has other constraints to meet, including democratization and some of those issues.” One can therefore now only show a “rational path” that the country must follow in order to qualify for membership. In addition, Biden offered Kiev security pledges similar to those made by the United States to Israel.
In German government circles, it was said on Monday that “the time was not there” for “concrete steps towards membership”. There is “no consensus” among the allies for this either. Even the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy does not expect his country to be invited to join as long as Russia’s war once morest Ukraine continues. From a German perspective, the focus at the summit should be on what specifically helps Ukraine. This is “military hardware”. In addition, the message of a “substantial intensification” of the partnership will go out from Vilnius. A senior government official promised another German aid package for Ukraine. A “very substantial” delivery of hardware will be announced in the Lithuanian capital. More detailed information was not given.
more on the subject
Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States have been negotiating a joint declaration since mid-June that is intended to provide a framework for bilateral security commitments to Kiev. According to diplomats, this involves military exercises with Ukraine, the training of soldiers and the sharing of reconnaissance results, in addition to weapons aid. All of these activities are already taking place, but they are to be more formalized and consolidated. The four states want to present their declaration in Vilnius – but it was not foreseeable whether this would succeed in view of the ongoing negotiations.
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