2023-05-14 15:47:14
While tens of millions of Turkish voters have completed the voting process across the country, attention is drawn to the decisive hour when the boxes will close, marking the start of the counting process, and then the announcement of the preliminary results gradually.
The voting process is scheduled to end at five o’clock on Sunday afternoon, while the preliminary results will be officially announced by the “Higher Authority for Elections” before 12:00 pm local time.
The past hours witnessed a great turnout by voters at the polling stations, and this was not limited to a group without others, but rather everyone, and even many families went as a whole to vote collectively, according to the observations witnessed by the correspondent of the “Al-Hurra” website in Istanbul.
Pivotal cities
Observers and analysts who spoke to Al-Hurra website believe that many Turkish cities will have a “significant weight” in terms of the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections, as well as the group that votes for the first time, the majority of which are young people.
These cities, according to Turkish political researcher Hisham Gunay, are the capital, Ankara, Istanbul and Diyarbakir, which have a Kurdish majority, as well as Izmir and Antalya.
“These cities, in terms of size and symbolism, are of great importance and controlling them is important in the current elections,” Junay explains to Al-Hurra.
The importance of Ankara is linked to being the capital, where the parliament is located, and it has symbolic indications of the system followed in the country.
As for the city of Istanbul, Gunay adds that it is “the beating economic heart of Turkey, and it is considered a symbol of the authority of the ruling party’s candidate, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, since he was its mayor for two decades.”
And the researcher continues, “The city of Istanbul was Erdogan’s identification card, when he introduced himself to the Turkish street as its successful mayor.”
For his part, the researcher specialized in Turkish affairs, Mahmoud Alloush, believes that “the big cities are important in the competition, whether in terms of electoral blocs or in terms of political control.”
“Istanbul plays a big role in terms of competition at the level of gravity,” he told Al-Hurra.
“The city has approximately 11,300,000 voters, and therefore the population’s vote will have a greater impact on the presidency than in other cities.”
Moreover, the researcher adds that “the big cities have a large number in parliament,” and that “Istanbul, for example, has 96 out of 600 seats, and therefore whoever dominates the big cities has more weight in managing the country.”
Istanbul is not like the city of Izmir, for example, which is considered “the main stronghold of the Republican People’s Party” and its leader, Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is competing with Erdogan, along with the third presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan.
And the researcher Alloush continues: “Istanbul is not controlled by any party, and the partisan spheres of influence are diverse in it, and it cannot be counted on the opposition or the government. There is an important symbolism in these elections, specifically in Istanbul.”
He points out that “it will be a test of loyalties after the Justice and Development Party lost it in the 2019 municipal elections.”
“Turnout is positive”
In the presidential elections that took place in 2018, Erdogan was facing Ince, the leader of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, Salah al-Din Demirtas, the leader of the Good Party, Meral Aksnar, the leader of the Felicity Party, Temel Karamullah Oglu, and the leader of the Homeland Party. Dogu Pringik. At that time – that is, five years ago – Erdogan won the presidential seat after winning 52.6 percent, but in the upcoming elections, his chances are not yet known in front of his two rivals, after the withdrawal of the leader of the “Balad Party”, Muharram Ince.
However, in the 2019 municipal elections, the ruling Justice and Development Party lost the municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul to the Republican People’s Party.
The loss came at the time when the Kurdish “Democratic People’s Party” did not support the “Republican People’s” candidates, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavash.
At the present time, within Turkish circles, there is talk of a “record” turnout for the elections.
And researcher Junay believes that “this great turnout will be positive for the results.”
He says: “It is a positive thing that the street is aware of the importance of these elections and goes to the boxes and chooses who represents them, whether in the presidency or parliament.”
On the other hand, Junay refers to the importance associated with the city of Diyarbakir and the results that will be issued from it after five o’clock on Sunday.
He explains, “It is important for any party to control Diyarbakir and get a large percentage of it, because it carries symbolism with the Kurdish majority that inhabits it.”
For his part, researcher Alloush considered that “today’s elections will be important as to whether the opposition still has voting weight after the recent breach in Istanbul and Ankara, or whether Erdogan has recovered at the level of popular support, since the AKP lost the mayoralty there.”
How do you announce results?
The information provided by the Supreme Elections Council indicates that the counting of votes will take place immediately after the end of the polling process, provided that the preliminary results are announced before 23:59. After the announcement of the preliminary results, there will be a period of objection to the decisions and minutes of the polling booth committees, provided that it ends at 17:00 on May 15, while it will be announced before 23:59, at the latest. On May 19, the results of the general elections will be officially announced in the Official Gazette, television and radio media. However, there will be exceptional cases.
While the results of the parliamentary elections will be decided in the first round, the matter will be different with regard to the presidential elections, and in the event that none of the candidates achieves the ratio of 50 + 1.
Candidates must receive at least 50 + 1 votes to be elected, but if no candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round, a second round will take place after 15 days, between the two candidates who received the largest number of votes first. Then the candidate who receives the majority of valid votes will be elected president.
And if it is decided to hold a second round in the presidential elections on May 28, the electoral calendar will start on Monday, May 15, while the provisional results will be announced on May 29.
On June 1, the final result will be officially announced through the Official Gazette and the media.
What about the parliamentary elections?
In order for political parties to elect representatives, they must either pass the country’s election threshold on their own or be in an alliance, and the total number of votes in that alliance must exceed the specified country threshold, according to valid votes. With the legal change made last year, the electoral threshold was lowered to 7 percent. In the event that elections are held with the coalition, if the total vote of the coalition exceeds 7 percent, the political parties within the coalition are considered to have crossed the threshold.
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