Turkish Offensive Changes the Game in Syria‘s Long War
For years, battle lines in Syria’s civil war have been largely static. Since 2020, a tense stalemate had settled in, with President Bashar al-Assad controlling much of the country and its major cities. In the northwest, a Turkey-tolerated alliance dominated by the Islamist HTS, controlled a shrinking enclave around Idlib and surrounding countryside. Further north, Turkish troops and allied militias oversaw a swathe of territory previously held by Kurdish forces along the border.
This intervention changed everything. Turkey’s offensive has suddenly thrown the chessboard into disarray, leaving the future of Syria uncertain. While withholding support favors reducing Kurdish autonomy, Turkey’s strategy is calculated risk – and risks damaging revival of its relationship with Russia.
A Rise and Fall of Power
Erdoğan has taken a gamble, ultimately seeking to pressure Assad into reconciliation. He wants to force Assad’s hand, securing a path for the repatriation of over 4 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. Wonders whether Ankara can achieve this without inflaming the situation further.
The success of Erdoğan’s perspective will heavily depend on HTS obeying the script. Turkey wants them to consolidate their control over Aleppo, much as they have in Idlib. However, if HTS ventures further south beyond Hama, then the situation will escalate, jeopardizing fragile stability.
Turkey precedes attacking the YPG militia, carried out for several years by Turkey and its proxies. The operation has successfully captured the Kurdish stronghold of Tal Rifaat and surrounding towns east of Aleppo. However, unlike previous offensives.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed force that controls much of northeast Syria, faces further curtailment. </itato prevent an outright Turkish advance further into Kurdish-controlled territory.
Meanwhile, Russia oscillates on the sidelines, acknowledging a shift in the balance. Strains of tension between Moscow and Ankara are showing, and questions linger: Will Russia choose to actively protect its Syrian marines and prevent wider destabilisation? Or will객handle itself
## The Numbers Game
The potential for major repercussions is significant, both inside and outside Syria.
The cost of the agreement, likely to be high for the Kurds, who currently enjoy a degree of autonomy in the northeast. Turkey’s military patrols, further accomplishes a strategic knock-on effect spreading across the region. Moscow’s Response Overtures to both sides in recent months have come
Not only will this directly impact negotiations on several fronts
What is Russia’s relationship to the situation in Syria, and how could Turkey’s actions affect this?
## Interview: Turkey’s Gamble in Syria
**Host:** Welcome back to the show. Today we’re discussing the recent Turkish offensive in Syria and its potential ramifications for the region. To help us understand this complex situation, we have Dr. [Guest Name], an expert on Middle Eastern politics and conflict. Dr. [Guest Name], thank you for joining us.
**Guest:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** Let’s start with the basics. What triggered this offensive by Turkey?
**Guest:** The situation in Syria has been largely stagnant for several years, with a tense stalemate in place. However, Turkey has long sought to expand its influence in northern Syria, driven by several factors. Primarily, it aims to combat Kurdish autonomist forces they perceive as a security threat. The recent offensive seems to be a calculated move by President Erdoğan to pressure Bashar al-Assad into possible reconciliation while simultaneously decreasing Kurdish influence. [[1](https://www.ft.com/content/6221f4e9-9a7a-4f3f-87c5-9311833f5467)]
**Host:** This sounds like a risky move. What are the potential downsides for Turkey?
**Guest:** Absolutely. This intervention is a gamble with significant risks.
Firstly, it could seriously damage Turkey’s relationship with Russia, a crucial partner in Syria.
Secondly, while Turkey aims to weaken Kurdish groups, this offensive could inadvertently strengthen their position by galvanizing support and creating a backlash.
it’s unclear if this strategy will ultimately pressure Assad into negotiations, as he appears to have consolidated his power base.
**Host:** You mentioned Russia. How might this impact Moscow’s interests in the region?
**Guest:** Russia has played a pivotal role in propping up the Assad regime. This Turkish incursion directly challengesMoscow’s influence and could lead to an escalation of tensions.
How Russia reacts remains to be seen, but it is definitely a development they are carefully monitoring.
**Host:** Looking ahead, what possible scenarios could unfold in Syria following this offensive?
**Guest:** It’s a fluid situation with many unknowns.
One scenario is a protracted conflict with no clear winner. Another possibility is that the offensive ultimately backfires, leading to international condemnation and further isolating Turkey. A more optimistic outcome could involve negotiations between Turkey and Assad, resulting in a 새로운 power-sharing arrangement. However, achieving lasting stability in Syria seems elusive at this point.
**Host:** Dr. [Guest Name], this has been a fascinating insight into this complex situation. Thank you for sharing your expertise with us.
**Guest:** My pleasure.
