After Sunday’s 51.1%-39.6% victory over the Islamist candidate Murat Kurum, “Erdogan’s nemesis”, as the 53-year-old mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu was described by the Bloomberg agency, is the undisputed favorite for the Turkish presidential elections. of 2028. Provided, of course, that the mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, who defeated the government candidate Turgut Altinok and the leader of the Republican People’s Party yesterday with 60.4%-31.7%, will not try to block his way Party (CHP), Ozgur Ozel, insisting on being the opposition candidate himself, as Kemal Kilicdaroglu did in 2023.
If the “coalition of 6” political leaders (including Babacan, Davutoglu) accepted nationalist Meral Aksener’s proposal that Imamoglu be Erdogan’s opponent in 2023, then the smiling businessman from Trabzon might not have to wait another four years for to be found in the presidential palace in Ankara. Last year, the popular demand to promote Imamoglu above the protocols of the hierarchy was so clear that the 6 agreed to make him vice president of Turkey – together with Javas – if Kilicdaroglu defeated Erdogan!
So knowing what awaits him in a four-four showdown with this fresh, rising opponent, the Turkish president made no secret of his intention to try to turn the game around in this four-year period – which he described as a political “treasure.”
Speaking yesterday at the headquarters of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan characteristically stated: “If we did something wrong, we will correct it in the coming years. Where we left something incomplete we will complete it… From now on our government will focus on dealing with the economic difficulties of the people, on the recovery of the earthquake affected areas and on other urgent problems”.
The Turkish president has promised that in the second half of 2024 he will drop inflation from 67% (note: who proved a deadlier opponent than Imamoglu), allowing businessmen, government officials, traders, farmers, freelancers and workers to focus in their work.
But he made it clear that he is not going to adopt “populist policies” of fiscal expansion, which was also confirmed by the Minister of Finance, Mehmet Simsek. Turkey-watching markets reacted nervously to the crushing defeat of the AKP and its allies (Erdogan lost a total of 19 major municipalities, particularly in Northwest Turkey, where precision and deindustrialization have affected tens of millions of Turks) as Ankara’s financial staff he pays attention to his smallest statement. So early yesterday Simsek made it clear that the Turkish government will continue to strictly implement the medium-term program and structural changes to reduce inflation to single digits. “The control of public spending and tight monetary, credit and income policy will continue to be our priority,” the tsar of the Turkish economy emphasized in X. At the same time, in a surprise move, the central bank raised interest rates by 500 basis points to 50% to deal with inflation.”
On a political level, Erdogan acknowledged that his party “went down” and the result was a “turning point”, while his nationalist ally Devlet Bakhceli (MİP) in turn attributed the poor result to the economic crisis.
For his part, Imamoglu appeared unifying (as did his internal party rival, Mansour Yavas), but he was clear that Turkey is changing the page.
“Those who did not understand the message of the nation will be the losers in the end,” he told a crowd of supporters chanting “Erdogan, resign!”
Avoiding touching on economic issues, the mayor who “now personifies the demand for political change in Turkey”
(Hakan Akbas, advisor to the think tank Albright Stonebridge) played the card of national reconciliation by proclaiming that his new term will mean the end of political division and discrimination.
Yet another (albeit funny) criminal case for “insulting the Supreme Electoral Commission” is pending over Imamoglu’s head. If Erdogan gives an underground order to the Judiciary to activate it, then Imamoglu might even be prevented from being sworn in once more. Common sense, however, dictates that the defeated president will not ignite a division from a position of weakness and fresh electoral wounds.
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