2023-05-12 13:22:00
For Kremlin boss Putin, the election in Turkey might also have consequences. Should Erdogan suffer defeat, he will lose his most important ally.
FRANKFURT – The 2023 Turkey elections on Sunday (May 14) will be followed with attention around the world. After 21 years in power, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might be ousted by opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Most polls see Kilicdaroglu ahead. This should not only cause concern for Erdogan, but also for Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin. Because if Erdogan is defeated, he will lose his most important ally.
Türkiye election: With Erdogan’s defeat, Putin might lose an important ally
There are extremely close personal ties between Erdogan and Putin, which also characterizes the bilateral ties between Turkey and Russia in several areas. The two statesmen have constantly expanded trade and economic relations between Ankara and Moscow. In 2022, the trading volume exceeded regarding 62 billion dollars, according to the US broadcaster CNN reported. Cooperation also reached a new level at the military level when Turkey bought the Russian S-400 air defense systems in 2019.
In the energy sector, the two countries also enjoy good relations, which are of particular use to Ankara. Turkey gets regarding 45 percent of its gas from Russia, according to the US-funded broadcaster Radio Free Europe (RFERL) reported. Turkey’s first nuclear reactor built with Russian help recently opened in Mersin. The two governments are also talking regarding setting up a “gas center” in Turkey. According to the plan, the Russian gas is to be resold from there.
Turkey election: Ankara is of great importance to Moscow in the Ukraine war
For Putin, Turkey, a NATO member, is particularly relevant to breaking the international isolation behind the Ukraine war. Meetings between the Kremlin boss and Erdogan convey the message that Russia is not isolated despite the “attacks” from the West and is still a respected member of the international community.
In addition, Moscow can drive a wedge into NATO with the expansion of relations with Turkey, which is additionally favored by the tensions between western capitals and Ankara. Turkey, for example, continues to block Sweden’s NATO membership. Of course, that benefits Russia. In addition, Moscow can circumvent western sanctions via Turkey. Ankara itself is not taking part in the punitive measures. In a nutshell: Turkey under Erdogan fulfills important economic and diplomatic functions for Russia. It offers scope and air for Russian politics.
Türkiye election: Kilicdaroglu wants to “recalibrate” towards Ankara
If Erdogan is defeated, however, much of this threatens to change. Because in several interviews, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the possible future president of Turkey, has already promised that under his leadership the country on the Bosphorus will turn to the West and Europe once more. “We will recalibrate our direction and prioritize not relations with the Kremlin but relations with the West,” he assured the British broadcaster BBC in early May. “With our victory on May 14, we will turn back to the West,” he wrote in the British magazine The Economist.
His foreign policy adviser Ünal Ceviköz also gave dozens of interviews on Turkey’s future foreign policy orientation. The main idea is always the same: while maintaining relations with Russia and not jettisoning all aspects of the Erdogan government, it wants to do so from a west-facing position, with an appreciation of western values.
Turkey election: “Putin is ready to work with Kilicdaroglu too”
Turkey will most likely remain largely neutral in the Ukraine war and will not give up its role as a mediator – an opinion shared by former American ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey. Turkey will also continue not to participate in Western sanctions once morest Russia, he told the US magazine Newsweek. However, Sweden’s entry into NATO and thus the expansion of the alliance will very likely be approved. This is one of the campaign promises made by the opposition camp.
“Putin likes dealing with presidents whom he sees as strong and predictable, even as they bomb his allies in Syria or oppose Russia and its allies in the Caucasus, Libya and Northwest Syria,” Jeffrey said. Putin wants to see counterparts who are like him: “And that’s Erdogan, not Kilicdaroglu.”
Regardless of who wins the election, relations with Turkey are of almost vital importance to Putin. “Putin definitely supports Erdogan, but he would also be willing to work with Kilicdaroglu,” Eleonora Tafuro of the Italian institute ISPI told Newsweek. He would be reluctant to lose important ties with Turkey. What is certain, however, is that he will have a harder time with Kilicdaroglu. How difficult remains to be seen. But first, Kilicdaroglu must triumph on May 14th. (bb)
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