2023-05-28 08:49:38
The Tunindex closes in the green with a strong rally this week, thanks to its large caps. The market recorded a rise in values, including in particular food and beverages 6.80% and insurance 2.87%, the result of the continuation of the positive sentiment of last week.
However, the atmosphere remains tight, while negotiations with the IMF remain in limbo. The risk of late settlement might impact stock market performance via a change in the outlook for monetary policy.
Economic data
In terms of economic publications:
Economic growth in the first quarter of 2023
Growth : preliminary estimates of the quarterly national accounts show that economic activity recorded growth in gross domestic product in volume terms (seasonally adjusted) of 2.1% year-on-year, a slight improvement compared to the growth in the previous quarter (1.8%). In terms of quarterly variations (i.e. compared to the last quarter of the year 2022), the volume of GDP increased by 0.8%, i.e. almost at the same pace as in the previous quarter (0. 7%).
Inflation : the Tunisian IPCF index reached the value of 10.2% once morest 10.4% for the forecasts and 10.3% over the previous period. More important data is expected over the next week. At the macro-financial level, the indicators of the day, from one week to the next:
Treasury current account on 25-05-2023: 318 MD
Net assets in foreign currency on 26-05-2023: in MD: 21,704 in days of importation: 93
Banknotes and coins in circulation on 25-05-2023 18.954 MD
Global refinancing volume as of 05-26-2023: 15,122 MD
Money market rate (TM) on 26-05-2023: 8.00000%
Key interest rate on 05-26-2023: 8.00000%
Average money market rate (TMM) for the month of April 2023: 8.01000%
Savings remuneration rate (TRE) for the month of May 2023: 7.00000%
Weekly analysis you Tun index
After the rebounds which printed a weekly bullish trend, the Tunindex closes this Friday, with a session of rallies on stocks with high potential in consistent volumes.
However, the great caution in the face of still undecided economic activity and political indeterminacy to revive activity, trade is pulled up by the few large caps, in particular “Sotetel”, “Essoukna”, “Euro-Cycles” , “One Tech holding”, “Al Kimia”…
Investors, attentive to what the financial analysts of listed companies augur for the coming months, are offloading lagging stocks (BH Leasing, Sotuver, Uadh, BTE-ADP, Officeplast) in favor of stocks with high potential.
With a strongly bullish week over 5 sessions in the green, the Tunindex closes the week in positive territory.
Tunindex Components
At Friday’s closing, note the volatility of prices once morest a background of sustained transactions in a bull market: 25 values up, once morest 19 down and 20 unchanged.
The Tunindex ends the week with 8,676.90 pts, gaining almost 9.17 points (+0.11%), from one day to the next, just on the margin (-) of the symbolic threshold of 8,680 points.
Stock market profile of the week
The Tunindex closed the week with a series of bullish crossings which allowed it to span all its Moving Averages upwards to end with an annual return of 17.71% once morest 16.22% the previous week.
The BVMT is part of the demand market, in quantitatively very strong weekly volumes, around a daily average of more than 560(+) K. securities traded, over 3 months, according to the panels, block trading not included.
The main sectors of the Tunindex closed the last session, in dispersed order, with a relatively higher weekly volatility (ATR (14): 126.9328% once morest 123.9836% the previous week) underpinned by a relative recovery in the taking of risk.
Throughout the week under review, the Tunindex finally stabilized at around 8,650+ points. The main sectors that make it up have seen an ups and downs, overall in the neutral to plaintiffs.
Graphical analysis
and technical
During the week under review, the Bollinger Bands widened sharply, to materialize the stock market volatility.
The MACD (12 –26 – closing price – 9) which had crossed above its signal line, curves higher with the prospect of a continuation of the bullish reversal over the coming week, in a corridor ascending between resistance in green and support in red, with high reliability.
At the end of the week under review, the Bvmt closes Friday’s session in line with the “bullish” sentiment.
The Tunindex, in daily data, beyond its psychological threshold at 8,650 points and beyond its pivot point, is positioned at the top of the upper zone of the 8,610-8,740 channel channel, with a:
Point Pivot : 8.645,15 points,
Its resistance (upward) R2: 8,736.80 points
Its support (in the fall), S1: 8,610.62 points.
Consensus
In conclusion, the trend remains generally bullish, with high reliability:
Graphical and technical analyzes argue for a bullish rally with high reliability.
The prospect of a technical bearish reversal is seen with low reliability for the week ahead.
Finally, it should be noted that for the Tunindex, the analysis and the Consensus show a “Strong Buy” signal in daily data and in weekly data.
This scenario is valid as long as the Tunindex is positioned in the channel 8,500-8,550 points.
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