Wafer foundry leader TSMC (2330-TW)(TSM-US) Fa Shuo reported good news, the financial report, financial forecast and this year’s revenue outlook were all better than expected, and foreign investors also gave positive comments, maintaining a “better than the market” or “buy” rating, but considering the decline in the price-earnings ratio of the semiconductor industry, 5 The target price of one foreign investment was revised down, and one was raised. The target price is between 550 yuan and 850 yuan. Judging from the average target price of 708 yuan for 12 foreign investors, there is still 40% room for the stock price to rise.
European foreign investors said that although TSMC did not see signs of a significant slowdown in demand in the second half of the year, due to the correction of customer inventories, it is estimated that TSMC’s capacity utilization rate will drop from more than 100% this year to 91-93% next year. The revenue growth is estimated to be 36%. Considering the uncertainty of demand, the revenue growth forecast for next year is lowered from 15% to 12%, and the target price is maintained at 850 yuan.
The most conservative Japanese foreign investment expects that the semiconductor industry inventory correction will not be like the Internet bubble or a hard landing during the financial crisis. TSMC is more resilient than other peers in the face of changes in inventory correction or macro environment headwinds, but believes that At this time, it is necessary to wait patiently to buy the bottom, and the target price is reduced from 650 yuan to 550 yuan.
Another Japanese foreign investment pointed out that even if the industry faces inventory corrections, TSMC still estimates that the capacity utilization rate in the first half of next year will remain at a healthy level, but the recent stock price decline is similar to that of the 2008 financial tsunami. Compared with other semiconductor peers, TSMC’s stock price has been Obviously oversold, the EPS estimates for this year and next year are raised by 11% and 5% respectively. We are optimistic that TSMC will continue to outperform its peers, but due to the decline in the valuation of the semiconductor industry, the target price is lowered from 850 yuan to 700 yuan.
On the whole, major foreign investors have responded to TSMC’s dazzling second-quarter financial report and released a better-than-expected third-quarter financial forecast, and raised its revenue outlook for this year, maintaining long-term revenue growth and gross profit margin targets, etc. , are positive, optimistic that even if there are headwinds in the macro environment and the short-term industry faces inventory corrections, TSMC has a leading position in advanced manufacturing processes, and long-term operational growth momentum is safe.
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