2024-02-25 14:38:00
(CNN) — Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican presidential primary, CNN projects, defeating Nikki Haley in her own home while sweeping early voting states.
Already the big favorite to get his third consecutive nomination, the former president’s victory in the Palmetto State, where Haley was elected governor twice, practically put an end to the race, although Haley insists that she will continue fighting at least until next month. coming.
Trump’s dominance in South Carolina was not surprising. The state is one of the most conservative in the country and has supported the former president every time he has run for office. According to a CNN exit poll of primary voters, more than 4 in 10 described themselves as affiliated with the MAGA movement, while about 8 in 10 described themselves as conservative. Only a third of respondents recognized President Joe Biden as the rightful winner of the 2020 election.
Both Biden and Trump pivoted to the general election campaign weeks ago, but Haley’s decision to contest the race eats away at the former president, who is positioning himself to gain control over the Republican Party’s political apparatus.
Although the outcome in South Carolina was never really in doubt — most polls showed Trump with a lead of between 25 and 30 points — there are still some details pending. Chief among them: How many delegates can Haley win? South Carolina gives most of its spoils to the state winner, but also doles out delegates to the winner in each of its seven congressional districts.
CNN projected Saturday night that Haley would win the state’s first congressional district and its three delegates.
Haley’s victories in the districts won’t change the trajectory of the race, but they could tell us something about where Trump still has to go.
While we wait, these are the conclusions of the Republican Party presidential primaries in South Carolina in 2024.
The fight is accelerating now
The contest takes a new direction from now on. The slow march through early voting states is over. The primaries are now national.
On March 12, 56% of the delegates to the Republican National Convention will have been awarded. And in most states, Republican delegates go to all winners, meaning Haley doesn’t get any credit for coming in second.
With Haley winless so far, the finish line — the 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the nomination — could be in sight for Trump in a matter of weeks.
The next test will be this Tuesday in the Michigan primary, although the state’s Republicans have chosen to award their delegates partially through the primary and partially through a caucus convention days later. The Idaho and Missouri caucuses and the North Dakota primary follow. Then, on Super Tuesday, 36% of the party’s delegates are at stake.
Trump dominates the establishment of the Republican Party… again
In case it wasn’t clear when he won the nomination in 2016, became president, booted all but a few Republican critics from office or the party, and then stormed into the 2024 race despite facing multiple accusations, the Party Republican belongs to Donald Trump.
But its success here in Haley’s home state underscores how much has changed in less than a decade. Nor has it been a hostile takeover, no matter how hostile Trump may be to his rivals. Most Republican voters are completely on board with Trump — as evidenced by the majority who claim to believe his lies about the 2020 election — and the parts of his personality that make Republicans in the establishment are, as we have seen, actually a large part of his appeal to most voters.
Haley herself, when she became a national figure, presented herself as a tea party conservative, part of a group of Republicans who wanted to take the party further to the right. But as the Republican Party leaned toward Trump’s right-wing populism, even Haley is seen as a figure of the establishment.
Their political positions and general tone when discussing issues reflected this. His luck in these primaries confirms it.
What is Haley’s future?
To start, his campaign announced a tour of Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado and Utah starting this Sunday. It also spends money on television and digital advertising aimed at states that vote on Super Tuesday on March 5.
“In the next 10 days, 21 more states and territories will speak. They have the right to a real election, not a Soviet-style election with a single candidate,” Haley said in her concession speech.
However, it is more difficult to know whether he will achieve any victory and begin to seriously challenge Trump in the delegate race.
Nikki Haley at her primary election party in Charleston, South Carolina, on February 24, 2024. (Credit: Brian Snyder/Reuters)
There is no large enough coalition for Haley in the GOP primaries
Haley’s campaign has long been touting polls for the general election that show her in a much stronger position than Trump in a hypothetical matchup against Biden.
But he can’t skip the step of first defeating Trump in the primaries.
There has long been a theoretical coalition for Haley. It starts with moderate Republicans and those rejected by Trump, particularly college-educated suburban voters who have fled the party since Trump’s ascension in 2016, and includes independents who are allowed to vote in Republican primaries in some states. , like New Hampshire and South Carolina. However, that coalition is not in favor of Haley, at least not strongly enough to substantially change the composition of a Republican electorate that remains firmly behind Trump in general.
Haley said she will remain in the race until Super Tuesday. With Trump’s support among the Republican base showing no signs of cracking, she will have to somehow shake things up dramatically, and do so at a much more difficult point in the race than she has faced so far.
“There are a large number of Republican primary voters who want an alternative,” Haley said Saturday night. “I said earlier this week that no matter what happened in South Carolina, I would continue to run for president. I am a woman of my word.”
Tim Scott’s audition as a vice presidential candidate
The most important outcome of the South Carolina primary could be the close relationship Trump appears to have developed with his rival in the 2024 GOP primary, Sen. Tim Scott.
The last few weeks may have served as Scott’s audition for the vice presidential bid. She campaigned with Trump, appearing alongside him at a Fox News town hall and in other interviews, and urged Haley — who nominated him to his Senate seat when she was governor — to withdraw from the race.
“South Carolina is Trump country,” Scott declared from the stage Saturday night after Trump asked him to speak.
Scott has become a key surrogate for Trump since he dropped out of the presidential race in November – and the former president has taken notice.
“He’s the best substitute I’ve ever seen,” Trump said at a rally Friday night. “He is a much better representative for me than for himself.”
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