As Europeans come to terms with the implications of Donald Trump’s electoral victory, they find themselves pondering its significance for their own continent. The immediate conclusion is clear: US policies and the prevailing sentiments towards European nations and the European Union are poised for significant transformation.
However, a deeper and more profound realization emerges: Trump’s success serves as a telling precursor to what may lie ahead for Europe.
Trump’s victory was not an accident; it was the culmination of a painstaking effort to forge a diverse coalition that appealed to a multiracial, conservative populist base. This coalition is deeply rooted in the fabric of America’s working class — individuals who, lacking university degrees, are engaged in the essential, labor-intensive jobs that sustain the contemporary economy.
This demographic mirrors the burgeoning support for Europe’s right-wing populist movements. Recent polls across various European elections reveal a consistent trend: the backbone of parties such as Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), France’s National Rally, and Sweden’s Sweden Democrats is composed of moderate-income voters with limited education, predominantly identified as working class.
However, the first-past-the-post electoral framework in the United States means that this working-class demographic cannot rally alone; it must integrate with other factions. In Europe, these factions would often constitute separate political entities.
Trump’s political acumen lay in his ability to fuse this populist energy with the traditional Right’s social conservatism and pro-market, economically liberal principles. These shifts coalesced various groups, which in Europe would typically align with Christian Democratic or pro-market parties, like the VVD in the Netherlands, into his rebranded Republican Party.
Likewise, European nations with semi-majoritarian electoral frameworks are witnessing their own shifts. Giorgia Meloni’s centre-right four-party coalition in Italy effectively mirrors a Trump-like coalition within the intricacies of Italian multi-party politics, driven by personalities and alliances.
In Hungary, Viktor Orbán exemplifies this strategy brilliantly. His Fidesz-KDNP alliance has methodically absorbed competing parties within the spectrum, consolidating them into a formidable single entity. This effective unification is the cornerstone of his dominance in Hungarian politics, overshadowing the policies that have drawn the ire of Brussels’ elite.
Yet, this elite establishment tenuously clings to power across much of continental Europe, though its grip is weakening under increasing pressure. Centre-right parties often find themselves making compromises with centre-left counterparts, a strategy that alienates their right-leaning constituents and perpetuates the very populist forces these alliances seek to marginalize.
Over time, such unholy alliances will ignite backlash, ultimately increasing the support for the fringe elements they aim to suppress.
This is a reality that Germany and France must grapple with as the political landscape evolves. The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) appears poised to achieve victory in the next Bundestag election, but doing so will require forging alliances with either the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the Greens. Such alliances will inevitably tug the CDU/CSU towards the Left on both cultural and economic fronts, prompting disaffected right-leaning voters to reconsider alternatives like the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
With the looming 2025 elections, this may represent a crucial turning point, particularly if the AfD successfully rebrands itself, akin to other populist parties worldwide, by expelling its radical factions in favor of competent leaders dedicated to responsible governance.
In France, the political landscape is on the brink of a seismic shift as a profound reckoning approaches. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is increasingly dependent on the tacit support of Marine Le Pen and her allies, a dynamic that may compel the remnants of the once-significant Republican party to reconsider the merit of forming a more formal alliance.
Similar coalitions have emerged in the Scandinavian nations, where such partnerships have not only endured but have also bolstered democratic legitimacy in the face of formidable challenges.
Consequently, the introspective European must shift the focus from merely resisting Trump and his ideological followers to exploring possibilities for harnessing the positive aspects of this rising populist wave to forge a revitalized center-right political movement.
This new political force would represent a significant departure from the traditional order that has long tethered the Right to the interests of economic elites. While wealthier Europeans may still find a place within the Right, they will no longer hold an exclusive dominion over it.
The emerging coalition will be characterized by an authentic working-class conservative presence, comprising individuals whose political ancestry once aligned with the centre-left. This alliance will advocate for a future that embraces economic growth without succumbing to the Green catastrophism that currently pervades discourse.
Rather than imposing burdened fiscal policies upon the working class, this coalition will strive to distribute the benefits of growth equitably, ensuring that prosperity is shared among all citizens.
Additionally, this coalition will honor the community-focused aspects of individual lives, acknowledging that people are more than mere laborers and consumers; they encompass roles as parents, believers, and proud citizens of their local and national identities.
The movement will distance itself from the notion of an increasingly integrated union that disregards the authentic diversity of its component parts. Instead, it will promote the establishment of a genuine union that serves the collective interests of all states while allowing for significant local autonomy on critical matters.
It took Trump nearly a decade to reshape American politics according to his vision. A decade hence, Europeans may awaken to find that he, along with his European adherents, has similarly transformed their political landscape.
1776 to 2024 years
**Interview with Political Analyst Sarah Mitchell on the Impact of Trumpism in Europe**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Sarah. With the recent discussions surrounding Donald Trump’s electoral victory, many are pondering its implications for Europe. What are your thoughts on the potential transformation of US policies towards European nations?
**Sarah Mitchell:** Thank you for having me. It’s clear that Trump’s victory signals a shift in how the US interacts with Europe, particularly in terms of political alignment and support. There’s a growing sense of disillusionment with traditional politics, and this could translate into changes in foreign policy that favor more populist approaches rather than established diplomatic norms.
**Interviewer:** Interesting. You mentioned the parallels between Trump’s populist coalition in the U.S. and emerging right-wing movements in Europe. How do you see that dynamic evolving?
**Sarah Mitchell:** Absolutely. Trump managed to unite a diverse group of voters, many of whom are part of the working class and disillusioned with the elite establishment. In Europe, we’re witnessing similar trends with parties like the Freedom Party in Austria and the National Rally in France. These parties resonate with moderate-income voters, primarily those without university degrees. However, Europe’s multi-party dynamic complicates this, as these groups often remain fragmented across different parties.
**Interviewer:** So, the fragmentation presents a challenge for these movements in Europe?
**Sarah Mitchell:** Exactly. Unlike the US’s first-past-the-post system, Europe’s semi-majoritarian frameworks could lead to alliances that, while politically expedient, may undermine the core values of those right-leaning constituents. This could lead to a backlash, as we’ve observed with rising support for fringe parties like Germany’s AfD, especially as mainstream parties attempt to forge compromises that alienate their base.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned some specific examples in Italy and Hungary. Can you elaborate on how these countries are navigating this landscape?
**Sarah Mitchell:** Certainly. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s coalition has successfully harnessed a Trump-like approach, blending various political groups into a cohesive front. Meanwhile, in Hungary, Viktor Orbán has strategically absorbed competition to maintain dominance. Such strategies highlight the importance of political consolidation in the face of a weakening establishment across Europe.
**Interviewer:** Speaking of the establishment, how do you assess the future of traditional parties such as the CDU in Germany and the Republicans in France?
**Sarah Mitchell:** They’re at a crossroads. In Germany, any coalition government will require compromises that could alienate their right constituents, leading them towards alternatives like the AfD. Similarly, in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s reliance on Marine Le Pen may reconfigure traditional party alignments. This shifting landscape necessitates a deeper introspection among these parties on how to engage effectively with a populist electorate.
**Interviewer:** With these dynamics in play, what do you think is the most important consideration for Europe moving forward?
**Sarah Mitchell:** Europe needs to evolve from resisting populism to understanding it. Amid growing political discontent, there’s an opportunity to harness some of the civic engagement and energy that these movements bring to the table. Rather than purely antagonistic posturing, we may need to find common ground that addresses the underlying issues driving this populist wave.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Sarah, for your insights. It’s fascinating and a bit concerning to consider how these trends might shape Europe’s political landscape in the near future.
**Sarah Mitchell:** Thank you for having me! It’s definitely a critical moment for Europe as it navigates this unpredictable terrain.