Donald Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election on November 6, marking a remarkable and unprecedented comeback to the White House after a highly contentious election cycle. His imminent return to power has sparked intense speculation regarding the shifting dynamics of global politics and economics when he resumes office in January.
The US-China relationship stands at the forefront of these discussions. During his first term, Trump engaged in a multifaceted trade war against China, resulting in significant tariffs, and he has now promised to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods – potentially exceeding 60% or more – coinciding with a downturn in China’s economic performance, raising concerns over the implications for global trade.
Less frequently addressed, however, is the potential ripple effect of Trump’s policies on the diplomatic relationships between other nations, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Historically, during Trump’s first term, the absence of US trade and security assurances led to an easing of long-standing animosities as regional rivals China and Japan found common ground, potentially indicating we could witness a thaw in relations again with his resurgence in office.
The bilateral dynamics between China and Japan exemplify the phenomenon known as “hot economics, cold politics.” This term, which emerged in the early 2000s, succinctly captures the paradox of economic interdependence existing alongside political tensions, a dynamic that persists today.
Over the next decade, China and Japan are slated to cooperate on an impressive $26 trillion worth of regional infrastructure projects, reinforcing their mutual interests. In 2021, trade volumes between the two nations surpassed US$372 billion, with Japan emerging as China’s second-largest trading partner, only behind the US, while China secured its position as the largest trading partner for Japan.
Political animosity, however, continues to fuel tensions, primarily rooted in historical grievances. Japan’s invasion of China during the Second World War, which claimed over 20 million lives, has left an indelible mark on Sino-Japanese relations, igniting a strain of anti-Japanese sentiment that is integral to contemporary Chinese nationalism, which regularly calls for vigilance against perceived Japanese aggression.
Moreover, Japan’s concerns regarding an ascendant China complicate the picture. Having embraced pacifism since World War II, as enshrined in Article 9 of its post-war constitution, Japan’s right-wing factions have long advocated for constitutional reforms allowing military rearmament to counterbalance China’s rise.
The ongoing Article 9 debate instills trepidation in China, which views such reform advocacy as a potential precursor to a more militarized Japan, thereby intensifying the perceived threat. Hence, while China and Japan are open to extensive economic collaboration, unresolved historical issues complicate political cooperation between the two nations.
Thawing relations
Following the initiation of Trump’s trade war, revenue from China’s exports to the US declined by $53 billion within the first nine months of 2019. In anticipation of continued trade reductions with the US, China sought to strengthen ties with Japan, the world’s third-largest economy and a critical economic partner, which subsequently resulted in a notable 7.3% increase in bilateral trade.
Japan, however, traditionally relies on the US for security assurances via a defense pact established post-World War II. During Trump’s first term, he raised questions about the fairness of this agreement. As reforms to Article 9 appeared unlikely due to domestic political challenges and increasing perceptions of US unreliability, the Japanese leadership sought to reinforce security measures by deepening economic engagement with China.
This included the restart of high-level economic dialogues, reinstated after being suspended in the early 2010s due to anti-Japanese demonstrations in China and a rise in anti-Chinese sentiment in Japan. Furthermore, the Japanese government permitted its businesses to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, which serves as China’s hallmark economic development program.
The profound economic ties between China and Japan became so central to both nations that they were willing to temporarily put aside their political disputes. Notably, Japan’s then-prime minister Shinzo Abe made a landmark visit to China in 2018, the first of its kind in years, signaling a commitment to bolster relations.
However, this growing détente came to a halt in 2020 with the signing of a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China, which reduced China’s economic dependence on Japan. Shortly thereafter, tensions between China and Japan reignited over territorial disputes regarding the Senkaku Islands, a contested archipelago in the East China Sea that Japan administers but China claims, referring to them as the Diaoyu Islands.
Will we see another detente?
Following Trump’s reelection, it is anticipated that China and Japan will seek alternative avenues for economic stability and security, especially in light of his commitment to impose high tariffs on imports from China. Moreover, reports indicate he is considering appointing China hawks like Michael Waltz and Marco Rubio to pivotal national security and foreign policy positions in his administration.
While Trump’s remarks regarding Japan’s alliance have been less pronounced, his critical stance on NATO suggests he may also adopt a skeptical view of Japan’s constitutional pacifism. As a result, while his presidency may again push China and Japan to explore closer relations, significant changes in Japan’s political leadership will also impact the nature of future engagements.
During Trump’s initial term, both China and Japan were led by Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe, respectively, who, despite their mutual antipathy, had established a working relationship that fostered notable economic cooperation in the late 2010s. However, since Abe’s resignation in 2020 and subsequent assassination in 2022, Japan has seen a succession of three prime ministers, each with distinct perspectives on China, which has weakened the established rapport between the two nations’ governments.
Given that Trump’s foreign policies are likely to recreate conditions that encourage economic collaboration, another detente between China and Japan seems feasible. However, the reduced familiarity between the current Chinese and Japanese political leaders could pose challenges to this potential thaw.
Lewis Eves is a lecturer in government and international relations at the University of Essex.
What immediate effects might Trump’s presidency have on the economic relationship between China and Japan?
**Interview with Dr. Mei Zhang, Expert on Sino-Japanese Relations**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Dr. Zhang. With Donald Trump declared the winner of the US presidential election, what immediate changes do you anticipate in US-China relations, especially with regard to trade and diplomacy?
**Dr. Zhang:** Thank you for having me. Trump’s return could reignite tensions with China, particularly through increased tariffs. He has indicated the possibility of imposing tariffs exceeding 60%, which would significantly impact China’s economy, but it could also lead to retaliatory measures from Beijing. The key takeaway here is that we might see a more confrontational stance from the US, reminiscent of his first term.
**Interviewer:** Interesting. How do you think this could affect the diplomatic dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, especially between China and Japan?
**Dr. Zhang:** Historically, during Trump’s first term, the US’s strained relationships allowed China and Japan to find common ground. However, Trump’s aggressive trade policies might push both nations back into a more competitive stance. Yet, given their intertwined economic interests, I believe we could see an initial attempt at cooperation. Both countries have committed to extensive infrastructure projects worth trillions, which suggests they recognize the value of collaboration despite political tensions.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned the historical grievances that complicate Sino-Japanese relations. In your view, will these historical issues resurface, or can economic concerns override them?
**Dr. Zhang:** The historical sentiments are deeply ingrained and cannot be overlooked. While economic collaboration has progressed, incidents—such as territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands—can quickly escalate tensions. The relative stability we saw in relations might be tested again, particularly under the pressures of a more assertive Trump administration.
**Interviewer:** How do you see Japan reacting to Trump’s policies, especially in light of their defense dependency on the US?
**Dr. Zhang:** Japan has long relied on the US for security, and Trump’s previous questioning of defense agreements has left them uneasy. Should he adopt a similar approach, Japan may increasingly look towards bolstering its own defense capabilities and potentially reconsidering its pacifist stance. This could lead to a more militarized Japan, which would certainly concern China and further complicate their relationship.
**Interviewer:** do you think we will witness another thaw in relations between China and Japan, or do you expect renewed tensions?
**Dr. Zhang:** While I remain cautiously optimistic about a short-term thaw due to mutual economic interests, the long-term outlook is uncertain. It will largely depend on how both nations navigate their historical grievances alongside emerging dynamics under a Trump presidency. Business interests may temporarily prevail, but political realities, particularly with Trump’s approach to China, may ultimately reignite old tensions. The coming months will be crucial in shaping this relationship.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for your insights, Dr. Zhang. It’s clear that the geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific will require careful monitoring in the wake of these developments.