2024-07-01 05:37:16
Textual content/Xu Xiaoqiang
This was initially an important alternative for the Biden camp to regain floor within the polls. They hoped to make use of the primary U.S. presidential election debate on June 27 to indicate Biden’s energetic aspect and show that even on the age of 81, he’s nonetheless Capable of do essentially the most troublesome jobs on the planet, identical to when he delivered the State of the Union deal with to Congress on March 7 this 12 months.
Seems Biden mainly screwed up. Though the group had been vaccinated earlier than the controversy, saying that Biden had a chilly, his weak speech fashion, coupled with the occasional stuttering and mistaken phrases, made the viewers extra satisfied that “he’s actually outdated.”
Confronted with Trump’s brazen speeches and repeated misinformation, Biden was utterly unable to battle again. Consistently accusing the opposite get together of being a “liar” didn’t assist. As a substitute, it appeared like he was labeling the opposite get together. As well as, Biden failed to make use of up his argument time many occasions and wanted to be reminded by the host if there was something he wanted so as to add, displaying that Biden appeared unable to arrange his ideas effectively and put ahead an entire argument.
▌Earlier abstract:〈The primary battle of the US presidential debate: Trump’s cannon nature and Biden’s outdated age and downsides that the Democratic Occasion is fearful about〉
Even so, there may be nonetheless a while earlier than the November election. The present polls of Biden and Trump are nonetheless shut. It’s troublesome to foretell which get together will win. In view of the connection between the US and the worldwide economic system and business, the safety of the Indo-Pacific area, and so forth. Taiwan has a key affect on related points. What we in Taiwan can do now’s to look at the previous efficiency, coverage pointers, and so forth. of the 2 males, to contemplate: What is going to occur to the subsequent president who can be in control of the US within the subsequent 4 years? Have an effect on Taiwan? How ought to Taiwan reply?
June 27 is the primary debate of the US presidential election. Biden and Trump are presently very shut in help in most polls…
▌”Substitute”?Low chance
Instantly after the controversy, not surprisingly, tensions arose among the many Democratic Occasion camp. Calls and studies for “substitute” started to appear. Associated discussions are sure to develop into an increasing number of heated within the subsequent few days. Nevertheless, the one that untied the bell should additionally tie the bell. To efficiently “substitute”, the prerequisite is that Biden voluntarily withdraws from the election. In any other case, nobody within the get together will dare to instantly problem the present president. However at current, it appears that evidently the possibility that Biden will achieve this could be very small. .
Biden’s marketing campaign group should have imagined such a state of affairs, which is why they took the initiative to suggest to the Trump camp to carry a presidential debate earlier (that is the earliest presidential debate within the historical past of the US presidential election, and often has to attend till September, The primary presidential debate is not going to be held till the candidates are formally nominated by their respective events), in order that the efficiency of the controversy is not going to have a big effect on the election outcomes, and the Biden camp could have ample time to regulate and reply to the election technique. .
However it may be anticipated that sooner or later, Biden’s marketing campaign group ought to attempt to cut back or keep away from alternatives for Biden to talk publicly.
In reality, the very best time for the Democratic Occasion to alter its management has already handed. The most effective time is after the 2022 midterm elections.Not a foul selection, Biden could make a phenomenal exit and provides his successor loads of time to organize for the marketing campaign. Sadly, Biden is unwilling to abdicate. A number of individuals within the Democratic Occasion who’re curious about vying for the presidency, resembling Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and so forth., all undertake the technique of protecting a low profile and biding their time, believing that there is no such thing as a have to step ahead and bear the burden now. The fame of destroying unity throughout the get together implies that irrespective of whether or not Biden loses or wins, he could have no burden to run once more in 2028.
Biden’s weak speech fashion, coupled with the occasional stuttering and mistaken phrases, made the viewers extra satisfied that “he’s actually outdated”…
▌The election marketing campaign is regularly heating up, and the extra Trump is elected, the higher he will get
Biden and Trump are presently very shut in help in most polls, with a spot of lower than 1% (at this second in 2020, Biden was steadily main Trump by a spot of 8-9%, and the ultimate nationwide vote share was 4.4 % gained), however in line with election analysis, the present polls are literally not of reference worth and should not have robust predictive energy for the overall election. Solely in September and October, particularly after the Nationwide Occasion Congress, will the polls have a better Predictive energy.
Contemplating that the U.S. presidential election relies on the electoral vote system, the important thing to this 12 months’s election appears to nonetheless be within the six swing states (Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia), and presently in these states Within the 6 swing states, Trump, who’s in search of a comeback, leads the polls by greater than 2% in all. It’s no marvel {that a} current article within the British “Economist” journal identified that in line with the present state of affairs, in line with their election mannequin, Trump There’s a three-in-two likelihood of profitable.
If Trump is elected, what influence will it have on Taiwan?
Not surprisingly, Biden’s efficiency within the debate instantly aroused stress within the Democratic camp. The image exhibits individuals watching the controversy broadcast in DC…
▌Script 1: Curler coaster, please fasten your seat belts
The very first thing to appreciate is that the diploma of change in U.S. coverage throughout Trump’s second time period could also be better than that in his first time period, and that is primarily associated to the composition of his group.
Throughout his first time period, Trump truly didn’t count on that he can be efficiently elected and didn’t domesticate his personal individuals. Subsequently, within the early days of taking workplace, apart from just a few cronies who had meritorious service within the election, he principally used former Republican officers, resembling Nationwide Safety Advisor Mike McMahon. HR McMaster, Nationwide Safety Adviser John Bolton, White Home Chief of Workers John Kelly, Protection Secretary James Mattis and others, these individuals have largely restrained Trump’s hasty actions. political selections, resembling sending out militiasrepressHome avenue protests and the dispatch of particular forces to Mexico to kill prison drug lords have stabilized the continuity of U.S. coverage. Nevertheless, in the long run, many resigned as a result of their ideologies and concepts have been too completely different from Trump’s.
Now, after 4 years in energy and 4 years in opposition, Trump has cultivated a gaggle of individuals throughout the get together who’re extraordinarily loyal to him and have comparable coverage concepts. They are going to not be restricted by the so-called “institution” of the Republican Occasion and can have the ability to To a big extent, they apply their very own political views and concepts, and because of this, U.S. insurance policies could endure drastic modifications sooner or later.
These individuals embody his final nationwide safety adviser Robert O’Brien, former ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, former deputy nationwide safety advisers Keith Kellogg and Matt Pottinger, and so forth. , these are all prone to play essential roles in Trump’s international and safety insurance policies sooner or later.
When it comes to international coverage, they’re all China hawks. They imagine that China is an enemy quite than a competitor and needs to be decoupled from the Chinese language economic system. They advocate strengthening navy cooperation with allies within the Indo-Pacific area to discourage Beijing and use powerful commerce measures to power China modifications its unfair financial practices.
Subsequently, Trump’s present coverage of imposing a 60% tariff on all imported items from China will not be a joke. The chance of it being put into apply sooner or later is definitely very excessive. This may additional strengthen the already regularly diverged international provide chain – a service China and one other non-China service will even power the final batch of Taiwanese businessmen who have been beforehand unwilling to maneuver, however whose foremost commerce market is the US, to return to Taiwan, or transfer their manufacturing bases to Southeast Asian international locations, Mexico, and so forth., which the US considers “pleasant shores” s nation.
In contrast with the influence on the economic system and business, the path of Trump’s return to Taiwan’s exterior safety atmosphere will not be so clear. From Bolton’s memoirs, we will see that Trump truly would not care about Taiwan in any respect, and regards Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China. If China is keen to simply accept his situations, Trump can change Taiwan’s sovereignty with out hesitation, however Earlier than reaching an settlement, the second Trump administration will, like the primary, improve the U.S.’s negotiating leverage by repeatedly strengthening all points of relations with Taiwan. (Additional studying:“Trump begs Xi Jinping for ‘assist in re-election’!” Former U.S. Nationwide Safety Advisor Bolton’s Memoir Storm >)
If Trump wins the election, his coverage modifications could also be better than throughout his first time period, and that is primarily associated to the composition of his group. …
▌Biden is out?Historic information is in his favour.
Though the present state of affairs is certainly very unfavorable to Biden, historic information exhibits that US presidential candidates in search of re-election do have the so-called “incumbent benefit.” Since Washington was elected as the primary President of the US in 1789, the present president’s likelihood of being re-elected is about 69% (22 of the 32 earlier U.S. presidents have been re-elected).
If statistics are began after World Battle II, the information can also be about 69% (of the 13 presidents after the conflict, 9 have been re-elected), and the one one which failed was the one in 1977.Ford1981Carter1993Bush Sr.and Trump in 2020.
One other piece of knowledge additionally exhibits the influence of financial efficiency on presidential candidates’ bids for re-election. After World Battle II, if the present president ran for re-election in an election 12 months, if there occurred to be an financial recession, all of them did not be re-elected (Carter, Bush Sr., and Trump talked about above); but when there was no financial recession, the possibility of success in re-election was as excessive as 90%. .
As of June this 12 months, there are specific variations within the evaluation of the US financial progress price by main analysis establishments, however the common expectation is that financial progress will decelerate and the muse can be strong, and the chance of a US financial recession is low or is not going to happen.In different phrases, if no main modifications happen, historic information exhibits that Biden is unlikely to be re-elected.base chance(The bottom price) is definitely as excessive as 70%.
Though the present state of affairs is certainly very unfavorable to Biden, historic information exhibits that U.S. presidential candidates in search of re-election have actually made some progress…
▌Display screen 2: “The excessive wall of the small courtyard” turns into the “excessive wall of the massive courtyard”
If Biden is efficiently re-elected, it’s anticipated that many cupboard deputies can be strengthened to make sure the continuity and stability of insurance policies. Biden’s general international, safety and financial insurance policies is not going to change a lot. When it comes to nationwide safety diplomacy, the US continues to deepen navy cooperation with allies within the Indo-Pacific area, successfully deterring China from invading Taiwan, and lowering the possibility of a conflict throughout the Taiwan Strait within the quick time period. Though Taiwan’s worldwide house continues to be suppressed by China, with the help of the US and the decision for democracy, Taiwan’s relations with different international locations have made substantial progress.
When it comes to economics and business, the path of U.S. inexperienced vitality and environmental safety insurance policies stays unchanged, whereas Taiwanese factories proceed to face worldwide stress to cut back carbon emissions. The US authorities’s technological blockade towards China could change from the unique “small courtyard excessive wall” to the “massive courtyard excessive wall”, growing the depth and breadth of restrictions. For instance, the US could start to manage the manufacturing tools or design software program of mature course of chips. This may additional have an effect on Taiwan’s semiconductor business. Aerospace, navigation and positioning applied sciences can also be targets for export management sooner or later, together with drone know-how, satellite tv for pc know-how and different applied sciences associated to superior supplies, as a result of these applied sciences have key navy purposes.
Along with semiconductors, Taiwan’s PCB, displays, pc tools, communication community tools, and so forth. could also be affected by the Biden administration’s second-term “risk-reduction” and “friendly-shore outsourcing” insurance policies in the direction of China. ICT business. The U.S. authorities’s efforts to develop home ICT provide chain manufacturing capability and suppress the import of Chinese language ICT merchandise could immediate extra Taiwanese ICT corporations to guage and arrange factories in the US or in international locations pleasant to the US.
▌It’s too early to inform who will win.
What sort of state of affairs will Taiwan face within the subsequent 4 years? It’s too early to attract a conclusion now. In spite of everything, the election is a dynamic course of, particularly now that the polls of each events are shut. It’s not inconceivable for Biden to return from behind and win from behind within the remaining 5 months. What the Taiwan authorities and enterprises can do now’s That’s to gather as a lot info as doable concerning the insurance policies that Trump could implement sooner or later and make contingency plans prematurely.
What sort of state of affairs will Taiwan face within the subsequent 4 years? It is too early to attract conclusions now. What Taiwan’s authorities and enterprises can presently do…
Editor/Lai Yun
really helpful article
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