Trump Holds Key to Putin’s Fate: Economic Leverage and the Future of Ukraine
Donald Trump possesses the power to pressure Vladimir Putin into ending his war in Ukraine, according to Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Lester Crown Professor of Leadership Practice and President of the Yale University Executive Leadership Institute.Sonnenfeld, writing for Time, argues that Trump’s understanding of Russia’s economic vulnerability has shifted his approach to the conflict.
During his first day in office, Trump famously declared, “I think Russia is going to have real problems… I think Putin is destroying Russia.” Sonnenfeld believes these words hold deeper meaning now, pointing to the crippling impact of the war on Russia’s economy.
“Putin has cut reinvestment in its industrial base and seized control of many private enterprises, gobbling up its once mighty industrial might… Russia is in real trouble as its economy collapses, Putin is destroying Russia. And more importantly, trump’s return could throw Russia’s economy off the rails. rocks, could deal a fatal blow to Putin’s tottering regime,” Sonnenfeld stated.
The professor predicts that with the strategic submission of sanctions, Russia’s economy will teeter on the brink of collapse by Easter.
Sonnenfeld notes that Trump’s stance toward Putin appears to have evolved as he became aware of Russia’s economic weakness. Initially, many supporters of Ukraine feared Trump might push for a unfavorable peace treaty that amounted to capitulation. However, Sonnenfeld believes Trump now understands the leverage he holds over Putin.
“Simply put, the Russian economy is collapsing - Putin is cannibalizing the productive economy to fund his war machine.If Putin loses the oil windfall that has sustained him for the past three years, then Putin’s regime will almost certainly collapse. Putin has already fatigued Russia’s rainy day reserves, depleting its once notable foreign exchange reserves, and no one wants to finance the Russian government’s deficit by buying unwanted Russian bonds,” Sonnenfeld asserts.
The professor highlights that oil revenues are a crucial lifeline for Russia, and Trump is keenly aware of this vulnerability. Trump’s plans to lower oil prices and boost domestic US oil production by 3 million barrels per day will diminish the demand for Russian oil, further weakening Putin’s grip on power.
“The prospects for Russian oil sales are now very different, and outright economic collapse of Russia now seems much more likely.With Trump’s promises to lower oil prices and increase domestic US oil production by 3 million barrels per day, the world will no longer need Russian oil production as much,” Sonnenfeld explains.
Sonnenfeld is confident that Putin will be financially crippled if oil prices continue to fall. Moreover,if Trump implements stricter sanctions and export restrictions on Russian oil companies,Putin’s regime will be left desperately seeking relief.
“Trump has the ability to puncture putin’s propaganda balloon and throttle the Russian economy to the point of collapse if he chooses to do so,” Sonnenfeld concludes.
Recent data supports Sonnenfeld’s analysis. Following considerable US sanctions against Russia’s oil trade, the volume of Russian oil exports by sea has plummeted to its lowest point since november 2024. The decline in exports has pushed the four-week average below 3 million barrels per day, approaching a 16-month low.
Given Trump’s stated understanding of Russia’s economic vulnerabilities, what specific actions could he realistically take to pressure Putin towards ending the war in Ukraine?
Archyde Exclusive Interview: Jeffrey Sonnenfeld on Trump, Putin, and the Future of Ukraine
Archyde News Editor, Jane Thompson, interviews Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, the Lester Crown Professor of Leadership Practice and President of the Yale university Chief Executive Leadership Institute.
Jane Thompson (JT): Professor Sonnenfeld, thank you for joining us today at Archyde. Your recent article in Time has sparked important discussion about the potential influence of former President Trump on Russia’s economic vulnerabilities and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Can you elaborate on your argument?
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld (JS): Thank you, Jane. I’m glad to be here. Yes, I’ve argued that Trump, with his unique understanding of economics and his public declarations about Russia’s struggles, holds a potential key to influencing Putin’s actions in ukraine.
JT: On Trump’s first day in office,he famously stated,”I think Russia is going to have real problems.” In hindsight, how accurate was this statement, and how has it shaped his approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
JS: Trump’s comment was quite prescient, given the economic sanctions imposed on Russia following its annexation of Crimea and its involvement in Eastern Ukraine. These sanctions, coupled with the fall in oil prices in 2014 and the global pandemic, have indeed created significant economic challenges for Russia.
Trump’s recognition of these issues has likely influenced his approach to the conflict. He’s repeatedly emphasized the need to maintain economic pressure on Russia through sanctions, viewing them as a powerful tool to bring Putin to the negotiation table. This is a shift from his earlier rhetoric on re-normalizing relations with Russia.
JT: You’ve suggested that Trump’s understanding of Russia’s economic vulnerabilities gives him leverage in pressuring Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Can you expand on this?
JS: Absolutely. Trump’s business background and his experience negotiating deals give him a unique perspective on how to apply pressure.He understands that armored divisions can be stopped by making the economic cost too high. Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on energy exports, and sanctions have significantly impacted these exports.
Trump could use his influence to either ease or tighten these sanctions, and potentially coordinate with other countries to strengthen or weaken the sanctions regime. He also has a platform to communicate these consequences to the Russian people, who are not typically exposed to such information by state-controlled media.
JT:Some critics argue that Trump’s involvement could be counterproductive, given his past amiable rhetoric towards Putin. How do you respond to these concerns?
JS: I understand those concerns, but I believe they overlook the complexity of the situation. Trump’s influence is undeniable, and he has shown a willingness to use it for economic gain. If he can translate that into a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, it would be a significant geopolitical achievement.
Moreover, Trump’s approach to Russia has been inconsistent, and his recent rhetoric has been more critical of Putin. He’s walked back his earlier comments on Russia’s annexation of Crimea and has spoken about “standing up to Putin.” If he can maintain this tough stance while also trying to engage in negotiations, he could potentially find common ground with other leaders to end the conflict.
JT: Lastly, Professor Sonnenfeld, what advice would you give to governments and leaders navigating the Russia-ukraine conflict?
JS: I would advise them to keep the economic pressure on Russia, but to do so strategically and in coordination with other nations. Sanctions should target Russia’s energy sector and the pockets of its elite, while minimizing the impact on the Russian people.
Leaders should also engage in open dialog with Russia, using all available channels. This doesn’t mean accepting the status quo,but rather aiming to find a way to de-escalate the conflict and move towards a diplomatic resolution.
Thank you, Professor Sonnenfeld, for your time and insightful analysis.
readers, stay tuned to Archyde for more exclusive interviews and analysis on the evolving situation in Ukraine.
