America is about to enter an exciting new political era — or a level of fierce competition that few would wish for. whoever Donald Trump gets out of the way in the end will be in charge in the future. Will it be a challenger from the primaries? Or will it be President Joe Biden or a Democrat in the 2024 election looking to steer the party in a new direction?
In the short term, Trump’s narcissism will remain the black hole around which American politics revolves. For legal, psychological and also political reasons, Trump feels compelled to run again for the presidency.
If he didn’t, he would be even more defenseless in the face of the numerous criminal and civil cases brought against him and, worse from his point of view, he would sink into insignificance. Because he couldn’t prevent the spotlight from disappearing first, followed by his donations and maybe even his fanatical following.
It’s impossible to bypass Trump
The midterm elections once again showed Trump as a loser as voters rejected many of the candidates he supported. In the meantime, a potential primary opponent, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, has installed himself as the new Republican muscle man. Republican donors and incumbents, many with a desire to break away from Trump, will stick with DeSantis.
Others will take their cues from Glenn Youngkin. The governor of Virginia, who advocates a milder, softer version of the Republican cultural and social crusade than his Florida counterpart. And still others will stick to Mike Pence, who served as Trump’s vice president. He refused to respond to President Trump’s attempts to delay Biden’s election in 2021, allowing him to present himself as a person of integrity to evangelical Republican voters. It will be interesting to see how far that plays a role.
Probably not much, because it’s impossible to bypass Trump. He knows how to use leverage. This has enabled him for a long time to come up trumps with great force, even despite bad cards. He has often used his militant supporters as a club to intimidate opponents and critics, with particularly devastating effect on January 6, 2021. In his view, the more opponents dividing anti-Trump votes in a primary, the better.
Trump prefers to woo his fanatics
But this approach will also hinder Trump in the elections. His famous claim about his followers’ loyalty — he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue without losing their support — is only half the truth. In return, he was repeatedly forced to prove his loyalty to them.
He can’t even credit his success in getting vaccines against Covid-19 to boast when he said at a rally that he had received a booster shot, he was booed. This obsession with wooing his fanatics explains why Trump never had, and has no hope of, majority support. Most Americans are fed up with his bombastic demeanor.
Joe Biden is also coming under pressure
In the Democratic camp, meanwhile, President Joe Biden is coming under pressure not to run for another term. He’s too old and his approval ratings are low. As soon as another Democrat announces a candidacy – such as Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, or Jared Polis, the governor of Colorado – other Democrats will follow suit.
In the past, presidents who had to fight seriously in the primaries did not have a good standing. But Biden could hold out. In that case, Americans would be faced with a choice between two veteran arch-enemies, both of which they overwhelmingly do not want.
Should Biden have the wisdom to step down, Kamala Harris will point to her role as Vice President and her identity as a black woman to convince Democrats. Some will accept that. But other members of the government will also stand, including Transport Minister Pete Buttigieg and Trade Minister Gina Raimondo, who is favored by the center. There will be a heated debate about the course of the Democrats.
Americans have worried about the state of their democracy. But with a new generation of leaders on the starting blocks in both the Republican and Democratic parties, they could expect encouraging signs of life.
James Bennet, Lexington-Kolumnist, The Economist, Washington, D.C.