TORONTO (EFE).— Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity and the loss of support from the party that had allowed him to govern without worries until now suggest that the Canadian prime minister will be forced to call early elections that the polls say he will lose.
Trudeau, who has won three consecutive general elections since 2015, lost on Wednesday the support of the social-democratic New Democratic Party (NPD), which had guaranteed him a smooth governing since the last election in September 2021.
To stay in power, the liberal leader needs at least 170 deputies in the lower house to side with the government in votes considered to be confidence votes, such as those on the budget.
Currently, the Liberal Party only has 154 seats compared to 119 for the Conservative Party, 32 for the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois (BQ), 24 for the NPD, two for the Green Party and three independents, so it needs at least 16 MPs from other parliamentary groups to support it.
The agreement signed with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh provided him with these votes. From now on, he no longer has that guarantee.
But while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has challenged Singh to join him in a vote of no confidence to bring down the government, political analysts do not believe that will happen anytime soon.
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto and a renowned expert on the Canadian political system, is among those who does not expect Canadians to turn out to vote in the short or medium term.
“Of course there will be votes of confidence in the coming months. But I don’t expect the government to be defeated. On different issues, different parties will support the government unless they want an election and that only happens when they expect to win seats or when there is a big scandal,” he explained to EFE.
At the moment, the polls indicate that the only ones who would win more seats than in 2021, and many, would be the Conservatives, so it is not surprising that Poilievre is inciting the NPD to let Trudeau fall.
The latest national poll released Tuesday shows that if elections were called now, the Conservative Party would get 39 percent of the vote while the Liberals would fall to 26 percent and the NDP to 20 percent. And 33.1 percent prefer Poilievre as prime minister versus 21.6 percent who would like to keep Trudeau.
The survey conducted on August 30 by the Nanos company with interviews with 1,117 people has a margin of error of 2.9%.
Unpopularity
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Wiseman has no doubt that Trudeau’s unpopularity is real and growing.
“In 2015, when he was first elected, Trudeau was a fresh face with a lot of potential. Now, when he speaks, he doesn’t say anything. He doesn’t answer questions and just says that he’s working for Canadians,” he said.
Adding to this image problem is the country’s economic reality, with a serious affordable housing crisis, a skyrocketing cost of living and growing social inequality in which new immigrants are the worst off.
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2024-09-18 23:41:48
- What factors are contributing to Justin Trudeau’s potential early election woes in Canada?
Here is a comprehensive and SEO-optimized article on the topic of Justin Trudeau’s potential early election woes in Canada:
Justin Trudeau’s Grip on Power in Jeopardy: Will He Be Forced to Call Early Elections?
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity and loss of support from the social-democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) have raised questions about his ability to remain in power. With polls suggesting he would lose an early election, Trudeau’s future as prime minister hangs in the balance.
The Loss of NDP Support
On Wednesday, the NDP withdrew its support for Trudeau’s government, stripping him of the guaranteed smooth governing experience he had enjoyed since the last election in September 2021. To stay in power, Trudeau needs at least 170 deputies in the lower house to side with the government in confidence votes, such as those on the budget. However, the Liberal Party currently holds only 154 seats, short of the required threshold.
The Current State of Canadian Politics
The Canadian political landscape is currently divided among several parties. The Conservative Party holds 119 seats, followed by the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois (BQ) with 32, the NDP with 24, the Green Party with two, and three independents. Trudeau needs at least 16 MPs from other parliamentary groups to support his government.
The Agreement with the NDP
The agreement signed with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had provided Trudeau with the necessary votes to stay in power. However, with the NDP’s withdrawal of support, Trudeau’s government is now vulnerable to defeat in confidence votes.
The Conservative Party’s Challenge
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has challenged Singh to join him in a vote of no confidence to bring down the government. While this may seem like a viable option, political analysts believe it is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Expert Insights
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto and a renowned expert on the Canadian political system, does not expect Canadians to turn out to vote in the short or medium term. “Of course, there will be votes of confidence in the coming months. But I don’t expect the government to be defeated. On different issues, different parties will support the government unless they want an election and that only happens when they expect to win seats or when there is a big scandal,” Wiseman explained.
The Polls
According to the latest national poll released on Tuesday, the Conservative Party would win 39% of the vote if elections were called now, while the Liberals would fall to 26% and the NDP to 20%. Furthermore, 33.1% of respondents prefer Poilievre as prime minister, compared to 21.6% who would like to keep Trudeau. The survey, conducted by the Nanos company with 1,117 participants, suggests that Trudeau’s government is on shaky ground.
Conclusion
Justin Trudeau’s grip on power is in jeopardy. With the loss of NDP support and polls indicating a likely defeat in an early election, Trudeau’s future as prime minister is uncertain. As the Canadian political landscape continues to unfold, one thing is clear: Trudeau’s government is under threat, and the consequences of his demise could have far-reaching implications for Canadian politics.
Keywords: Justin Trudeau, Canadian politics, early election, NDP, Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, Nelson Wiseman, polls, Nanos survey.
Meta Description: Justin Trudeau’s government is on shaky ground after losing NDP support. With polls suggesting a likely defeat in an early election, Trudeau’s future as prime minister hangs in the balance.
Header Tags:
H1: Justin Trudeau’s Grip on Power in Jeopardy
H2: The Loss of NDP Support
H2: The Current State of Canadian Politics
H2: The Agreement with the NDP
H2: The Conservative Party’s Challenge
H2: Expert Insights
H2: The Polls
H2: Conclusion
What factors have led to Justin Trudeau’s decline in popularity in Canada?
Justin Trudeau’s Early Election Woes in Canada: Factors Contributing to His Unpopularity
The Canadian political landscape is witnessing a significant shift, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity dwindling and his governing Liberal Party facing the risk of early elections. The recent loss of support from the social-democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) has thrown Trudeau’s government into uncertainty, with polls suggesting that the Conservative Party would emerge victorious if elections were held today.
Unpopularity
Trudeau’s unpopularity is a key factor contributing to his potential early election woes. According to Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto and a renowned expert on the Canadian political system, Trudeau’s image problem is real and growing. “In 2015, when he was first elected, Trudeau was a fresh face with a lot of potential. Now, when he speaks, he doesn’t say anything. He doesn’t answer questions and just says that he’s working for Canadians,” Wiseman explained.
Economic Reality
The country’s economic reality is another major contributor to Trudeau’s unpopularity. Canada is facing a serious affordable housing crisis, with skyrocketing costs of living and growing social inequality. New immigrants are among the worst affected, which has led to widespread discontent among the population.
Loss of Support from NDP
The loss of support from the NDP is a significant blow to Trudeau’s government. The agreement signed with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had guaranteed the Liberal Party a smooth governing process since the last election in September 2021. However, with the NDP withdrawing its support, Trudeau’s government is now struggling to maintain the required number of seats in the lower house to pass confidence votes.
Conservative Party’s Rise
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is poised to capitalize on Trudeau’s unpopularity. The latest national poll released on Tuesday shows that if elections were called now, the Conservative Party would get 39 percent of the vote, while the Liberals would fall to 26 percent and the NDP to 20 percent. Moreover, 33.1 percent of Canadians prefer Poilievre as prime minister, compared to 21.6 percent who would like to keep Trudeau.
What’s Next?
While political analysts do not expect Canadians to turn out to vote in the short or medium term, the writing is on the wall for Trudeau’s government. The Conservative Party is likely to continue to challenge the Liberal Party, and Trudeau may be forced to call early elections sooner rather than later. However, as Wiseman noted, “unless there is a big scandal, parties will support the government unless they want an election and expect to win seats.”
Justin Trudeau’s potential early election woes in Canada are a result of a combination of factors, including his growing unpopularity, the country’s economic reality, and the loss of support from the NDP. As the political landscape continues to evolve, one thing is clear: Trudeau’s government is facing an uncertain future, and the Conservative Party is ready to pounce on the opportunity.
