Troubled political times ahead for France

If the far-right coalition wins a majority in the National Assembly, it will be the first time France has had a far-right government since the Nazi occupation during the Second World War.

The results from the first round of elections on July 1 suggest that Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration and nationalist National Gathering (RN) party has a good chance of winning a majority in the National Assembly for the first time, but the outcome is still uncertain.

In any case, it is likely that President Emmanuel Macron will have to govern with a government with a different political outlook than his own for the next four years.

What happened?

In the first round of elections, the RN and their allies received around a third of the vote. The coalition consisting of the centre-left, the Greens and the far left came second, ahead of Macron’s center alliance.

The French electoral system is not based on nationwide support for the parties. The candidates are elected directly from their constituencies, and one person represents each constituency.

Dozens of candidates who received more than half of the votes in their constituency won a place in the National Assembly in the first round. In the electoral districts where no one received more than half of the votes, a second round is held on 7 July between the two or three candidates who received the most votes.

The National Assembly is the lower house of the French Parliament and is the more powerful of the two chambers. It has the final say in the legislative process before the Senate, which is dominated by conservative politicians.

Opinion polls suggest that the RN will get the most seats in the upcoming National Assembly, but it is not clear whether they will get an absolute majority of 289 out of 577 seats.

What happens now?

The RN’s rivals are now fighting to prevent them from gaining an absolute majority.

The left-wing coalition has said it will withdraw its candidates in districts where they finished third, to ensure greater support for the far right. Macron’s center alliance has stated the same.

This tactic has worked in the past, when Le Pen’s party was considered a political outsider by many. But recently, RN has gained wider and deeper support across the country.

According to the German politician and France expert Franziska Brantner, votes from young people can be the decisive factor in the second round of the election.

But it depends on whether young people who voted for the left-wing coalition will support a candidate from Macron’s alliance.

– Whether the mobilization works here is, I believe, one of the big problems before Sunday, Brantner said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk.

Why does the far right lead?

While France has one of the world’s largest economies and is a major diplomatic and military power, many French voters struggle with inflation and low incomes – and a sense that they are being left behind in globalisation.

Le Pen’s party, which blames immigration for many of France’s problems, has tapped into that frustration and built a nationwide network of support, particularly in small towns and farming communities that see Macron and the politicians in Paris as out of touch.

Coexistence?

If someone other than Macron’s centrist alliance wins the majority in the National Assembly, the president will be forced to appoint a prime minister who belongs to the new majority.

In such a situation – called “cohabitation” (coexistence) in France – the government will implement policies that deviate from the president’s.

Modern France has been through three periods of coexistence. The last time it was the conservative president Jacques Chirac who had a socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.

The Prime Minister is responsible to the National Assembly, leads the government and puts forward legislative proposals.

During periods of coexistence, the president is weakened in domestic politics, but is still strong in foreign policy, European affairs and defense as he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international agreements. The president is also commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, and is the one who has the codes for the nuclear weapons.

Common voice outwardly?

Macron’s presidency runs until 2027, and he will not step down before then. But a weakened French president might make things complicated for the country on the world stage.

During previous coexistences, defense and foreign policy were considered informal “reserved” fields for the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice externally.

But now both the far-right and left-wing coalition’s views on these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and will possibly be the subject of tension during a potential coexistence.

RN prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella says he intends to be a coexistence prime minister who respects the constitution and the role of the president, but is uncompromising on policies the RN will introduce.

Bardella has also said that, as prime minister, he will oppose sending French forces to Ukraine – something Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also does not want to give Ukraine long-range missiles or other weapons capable of hitting targets on Russian soil.

Other options?

The president can appoint a prime minister from the coalition in the National Assembly with the most seats even if they do not have an absolute majority – this is the case for Macron’s own government from the center alliance.

But the RN has said that they will reject such an alternative, because it means that a far-right government can be overthrown relatively quickly through a vote of no confidence if the other parties join forces.

The president may also try to assemble a broader coalition from left to right, but that is not considered a likely option due to the major political disagreements.

Another option would be to appoint an “expert government” unrelated to political parties, but which still needs to be approved by the National Assembly. Such a government will probably take care of the more everyday matters instead of implementing major reforms.

If the government talks take too long during the summer holidays and the Paris Olympics, Macron’s centrist government can continue to govern during a transitional period.