Stormy Weather Ahead: Tropical Storm TORAJI is Making Waves!
Well, well, well, who ordered a tropical storm with a side of panic? As if we didn’t have enough to fret about, Tropical Storm “TORAJI” (or should we say “Nika” for the locals who prefer their weather systems with a bit of a personalized touch?) is gearing up to sweep through the Philippines like a celebrity on a red carpet.
What’s Happening?
On November 9, 2024, what began as a low-pressure area east of Southern Luzon decided it was time to get serious, rapidly evolving into a tropical depression and then strutting its stuff as a full-blown tropical storm. And let me tell you, according to PAGASA, TORAJI is not playing around!
Here’s the scoop: at 1900 HRS UTC+7, TORAJI was hanging out approximately 335 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon and boasting winds of up to 110 km/h. Pretty impressive, right? For those of you not too hot with the conversion, that’s about as fast as your last Uber ride—minus the polite conversation and air conditioning, of course.
Landfall Forecast and Impact
Mark your calendars folks. Tomorrow, November 11, TORAJI is expected to make landfall in Isabela or Northern Aurora. So, if you’ve been meaning to visit those areas, I’d suggest making alternate plans—perhaps a cozy night in with a movie and popcorn? We all wish we could binge-watch our favorite show and skip the whole natural disaster thing, but alas, that’s not how this works!
Tropical cyclone warning signals
PAGASA has rolled out its Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals like a magician revealing his tricks:
- TCWS No. 3: Southeastern Isabela and Northern Aurora — Brace yourselves, it’s going to be a rough ride!
- TCWS No. 2: Southern Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and surrounding areas — This one’s going to sting like a bee (or several bees).
- TCWS No. 1: A long list of localities from Cagayan to Metro Manila — Think of this as “don’t get too comfortable yet” warning.
What Should You Be Worried About?
Aside from the sheer chaos of flying debris and potential flooding, we also need to talk about heavy rainfall. This is not just your average drizzle. We’re talking about rainfall amounts that might fill a swimming pool (in case you were looking for a water park option). Moreso, there’s a moderate to high risk of storm surge along low-lying coastal areas. Seriously, do you really want to test whether your beach sandals can withstand this?
Impact Analysis
So what’s going to happen when TORAJI crashes the party? Well, we can expect:
- Flooding and landslides: Nature does have a flair for dramatic entrances, and this one comes with a side of chaos.
- Severe winds: Gale-force winds will be the sound of the day—think less music festival and more hurricane. Some areas may see wind signals as high as No. 4!
- Anticipated Risks: It wouldn’t be a tropical storm if we didn’t mention the risks of landslides and significant impacts in mountainous regions. So, buckle up, folks!
Stay Prepared!
The NDRRMCOC is on RED Alert. This is like your fire alarm going off but way more serious. Local governments are advised to use geohazard maps to better prepare for these kinds of brave adventures Mother Nature throws our way. Pay attention, people—this is not a drill!
Wrapping it Up
As we sit here watching the weather unfold like an overly dramatic reality show, staying informed is key. PAGASA and relevant agencies are keeping a close eye on TORAJI and any other potential troublemakers in the area. So, make sure to follow the updates, prepare an emergency kit (stocked with snacks, obviously), and stay safe!
Remember, when Mother Nature throws a tantrum, the best thing we can do is prepare ourselves and maybe indulge in a little dark humor. Hang in there, readers; it’s going to be a wild ride!
OVERVIEW: On 9 November 2024, a Low Pressure Area manifesting east of Southern Luzon transformed into the Tropical Depression which subsequently escalated into a tropical storm, receiving the international name “TORAJI.” Based on comprehensive data, including readings from Baler and Daet Weather Radars, as of 1900 HRS UTC+7, the eye of Tropical Cyclone TORAJI (locally known as Nika) was located approximately 335 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon or 330 km East of Baler, Aurora, with coordinates of 15.4°N, 124.7°E. PAGASA’s forecast indicates that TORAJI is projected to make landfall in Isabela or northern Aurora by tomorrow morning (11 November), potentially bringing significant impacts to the region.
STRENGTH & MOVEMENT: As of 1900 HRS UTC+7, TORAJI possesses maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near its center, with gusts reaching up to 135 km/h and a central pressure of 980 hPa. Notably, strong to typhoon-force winds are expected to extend outward as far as 340 km from the center of the storm. At present, TORAJI is advancing west-northwest at a pace of 15 km/h.
FORECAST: As outlined by PAGASA at 1900 HRS UTC+7:
- TRACK: The forecast trajectory indicates that TORAJI will continue to move predominantly west-northwestward. It is anticipated that the storm may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow morning or early afternoon. It is crucial to understand that hazards may affect land and coastal regions even in areas beyond the predicted landfall or confidence cone. Following the landfall, TORAJI will traverse the landmass of mainland Northern Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea by evening tomorrow, subsequently shifting west-northwestward over the sea before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday afternoon (12 November).
- INTENSITY: The storm is expected to reach typhoon status today, potentially peaking at an intensity of around 130 km/h before landfall. A temporary weakening is probable as it interacts with landmass, but it may re-intensify once over the West Philippine Sea.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS: In accordance with the Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 8 issued at 1900 HRS UTC +7, PAGASA has indicated the following Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 3 has been raised in the southeastern regions of Isabela and the northern area of Aurora.
- TCWS No. 2 is in effect for the southern areas of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the northeastern region of Pangasinan, the central parts of Aurora, and portions of mainland Cagayan, along with Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, and the northern section of Nueva Ecija.
- TCWS No. 1 applies to the remaining areas of Cagayan, including Babuyan Islands, as well as sections of Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Pangasinan, and other localities encompassing Tarlac, northern and central Zambales, numerous areas of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, and portions of Laguna, Quezon, along with Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and northeastern Albay.
HAZARDS:
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Heavy Rainfall
- Tonight to tomorrow evening (11 November): Heavy to intense rainfall (100-200 mm) is expected in Aurora and Isabela; regions experiencing moderate to heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) include Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Quezon, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
- Tomorrow evening to Tuesday (12 November): Intense to torrential rainfall (>200 mm) is likely in Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, and Aurora; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) rainfall might impact areas in Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Quirino, and Nueva Vizcaya; while moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) rainfall is anticipated in Quezon, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, and Nueva Ecija.
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Severe Winds
- Moderate to significant impacts from gale-force winds are conceivable in areas under TCWS No. 3.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds may occur in areas where TCWS No. 2 is imposed.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are probable in regions under TCWS No. 1.
- The maximum Wind Signal anticipated during the arrival of TORAJI could escalate to Wind Signal No. 4.
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Coastal Inundation
- There remains a moderate to high risk of storm surge over the next 48 hours for low-lying or vulnerable coastal regions throughout Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and various others including Cagayan and Isabela.
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- Flooding and rain-induced landslides are probable, particularly in areas previously identified as highly susceptible in hazard maps and those with significant antecedent rainfall.
- Predictably, rainfall levels may be notably higher in mountainous terrain. Additionally, adverse effects may be exacerbated in certain regions due to substantial preceding rainfall.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- The NDRRMCOC is currently under RED Alert Status ICOW TC TORAJI, alongside ongoing concerns from Tropical Cyclones TRAMI, KONG-REY, and YINXING.
- Efforts for relief and readiness are being bolstered as various tropical cyclones and low-pressure systems continue to be monitored by PAGASA.
- The NDRRMC urges local government units to utilize geohazard maps to effectively prepare for disasters and facilitate orderly evacuations.
- Lists delineating barangays highly susceptible to rainfall-induced landslides and flooding in provinces along the path of TC TORAJI have been disseminated by the Mines and Geoscience Bureau and NDRRMC-OCD.
- PAGASA consistently releases updates and conducts press briefings regarding TC TORAJI and other active weather disturbances to keep the public informed.
- Relevant agencies and local governments continue to closely monitor impending weather issues, ensuring timely advisories are issued.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: As of this report, the NDRRMC is addressing the repercussions from the following tropical cyclones:
- Tropical Cyclones TRAMI (Kristine) and KONG-REY (Leon): The latest situation report from NDRRMC noted 9.6 million individuals affected (2.4 million families), with 617,000 displaced, and a toll of 160 deceased, with 21 individuals reported as missing and 135 injured.
- Tropical Cyclone YINXING (Marce): The most recent situation report indicates 261,800 affected individuals (76,600 families), 26,800 displaced persons, and the unfortunate losses of 1 life, alongside 1 missing person and 1 injury.
The AHA Centre will persist in monitoring developments while providing necessary updates.
To mitigate the potential impacts of Tropical Storm TORAJI, proactive measures should be taken by individuals and local authorities alike. Here are some recommended preparedness and response strategies:
- Emergency Kits: Ensure that emergency kits are stocked with essential supplies such as food, water, medications, flashlights, batteries, and important documents. Don’t forget to include comfort items like snacks and first aid supplies, especially for families with children.
- Stay Informed: Regularly check updates from PAGASA and local news channels to stay informed on the storm’s progress and any evacuation orders or safety advisories issued by authorities.
- Evacuation Plans: Be aware of designated evacuation centers and routes. Families should discuss and establish a plan in case they need to evacuate swiftly.
- Secure Property: Reinforce windows and doors, secure outdoor furniture, and remove debris that could become projectiles in high winds. Check your property for drainage issues and clear gutters and downspouts of any obstructions.
- Risk Assessments: Local governments should utilize geohazard maps to identify vulnerable areas and prioritize interventions to prevent flooding and landslides, particularly in mountainous regions.
- Community Preparedness: Engage with community groups to share resources, conduct drills, and ensure everyone knows how to respond in case of emergency.
- Communication Plans: Establish a communication plan with family and friends to ensure you can check-in and coordinate safety during the storm.
Conclusion: With TORAJI soon to make landfall, it’s critical for everyone to remain vigilant, prepared, and responsive to changes in the storm’s behavior. While the storm may bring unwanted chaos, proper preparation can significantly mitigate its impact. Stay safe, everyone!