Treasury debt should reach 960 billion dirhams (MMDH) in 2022, once morest 886 billion dirhams a year earlier, according to estimates by Attijari Global Research.
“In light of the latest developments in the main State budget items, we remain convinced of the Treasury’s ability to control its budget deficit in 2022E below 6.0% of GDP. Under these conditions, the Treasury’s debt would reach 960 billion dirhams in 2022E, once morest 886 billion dirhams in 2021E”, indicates AGR in its “Budget Focus – Fixed income” for the month of July.
In detail, the domestic debt is expected to reach 731 billion dirhams in 2022, up 7.7% compared to 2021, while the external debt is expected to increase by 9.9%, from 208 billion dirhams in 2021 to 229 billion dirhams in 2022.
At the end of July 2022, the overall debt would stand at 904 billion dirhams. The internal component is estimated at 695 billion dirhams once morest 209 billion dirhams for the external component, notes AGR.
AGR also points out that the weight of foreign debt in the overall Treasury debt remains under control. This continues to evolve around 23% at the end of July 2022, in the absence of an international Treasury outflow. It should not exceed 24% at the end of 2022E, a level consistent with the benchmark of the Treasury internationally, i.e. 25%.
In view of the H1-22 figures as well as the economic outlook, the Ministry of Economy and Finance has revised its budget deficit and growth forecasts for the current year to 5.3% of GDP and 1.5 % respectively, let AGR know.
Under these conditions, the total indebtedness of the Treasury, relative to GDP, should exceed, according to AGR, the threshold of 80% of GDP in 2022. The domestic component is estimated at 61.2% and that external at 19.1%.
The Treasury would already be indebted to the tune of 75.6% of GDP at the end of July 2022. Domestic debt should stand at 58.2% of GDP in July 2022, almost the same level as the two previous years.
For its part, the external debt ratio should be around 17.5% over the same period, down slightly from its level in 2021.
