2023-12-14 15:17:25
The decarbonization of transport is a vital and challenging topic on Brazil’s climate agenda. Report from the Talanoa Institute, a non-profit entity, indicates that it is impossible for the country to meet the target of reducing carbon emissions by 480 million tons by 2025. According to calculations from DNV, a global energy certification company, the transport sector accounts for 25% of these emissions today.
Given this, Leggio Consultoria, specialized in oil, gas and renewable energy, carried out a study on alternatives for replacing diesel in Brazil in the coming decades. The work considered public and private data from the sector, current regulations and investments already planned in both the fossil fuel and renewable segments. Using its own methodology and mathematical modeling developed for the sector, Leggio carried out supply and demand projections for different energy sources.
The energy replacement of diesel should take place in two distinct waves: in the first, the transition will have as its main purpose the partial reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with transport decarbonization instruments. In the second wave, new engines will aim to eliminate GHG emissions.
“The division into two waves is due to the fact that there is no available, commercially mature and economically effective technology that can achieve the zero emission target in the next decade. The gradual introduction of different types of engines, according to their application, will allow the development of technology in line with current regulatory requirements. Same formula applied today to reduce emissions through the standards specified by CONAMA in the Vehicle Emissions Control Program 8 (currently Euro 6)”, says Marcus D´Elia, partner at Leggio Consultoria.
The technologies available to replace diesel are: electric, hybrid diesel-electric, natural gas (liquefied natural gas or compressed natural gas) and hydrogen engines. All types are being commercialized in Europe, except the hydrogen engine. The four main application segments for engines are trucks for urban deliveries (typically vans, light and medium trucks), urban buses, trucks and buses for long-distance transport, machines and trucks for agricultural use.
“At the moment, diesel serves all applications, but in the future the different alternatives could cover different segments, where five criteria must be considered when evaluating the engine: autonomy, supply infrastructure, initial value of investment in the vehicle, maintenance cost and secondary market (resale)”, details the specialist.
1st Wave: emissions reduction
“In the first wave, which is consolidated in the 2030s, the combination of the development of new biofuels, hybrid engines for heavy vehicles and the neutralization of emissions through the carbon market could be the main trend for cargo and passenger transport. over long distance. This scenario is supported in Brazil by the stimulus for biofuels, the slow articulation for the creation of supply corridors for alternative fuels, added to the breadth of the national road network and the delay in the creation of the carbon credits market. Therefore, the energy replacement of diesel in Brazil must come through the adoption of hybrid electric and biofuel vehicles”, explains D´Elia.
In the urban bus market, the expectation is that the use of diesel-electric hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles will strengthen, representing the main trend for this segment in this first wave. Due to the incentive for these two types of engines existing in some capitals and the promising life cycle costs in relation to diesel engines, the speed of introduction of this technology may be greater.
In this first wave, there is an expectation of expanding the use of light electric trucks in urban fleets, mainly due to the limited need for autonomy, which is currently fully met by vehicles available in Brazil. Considering the life cycle cost, electric trucks are equivalent to diesel-electric hybrids, and allow the replacement of current diesel engines, guaranteeing a zero emission level. This segment of the market would be anticipating the demands of the 2nd wave.
Finally, agricultural machines and trucks can use gas vehicles, considering the interest in expanding the use of biomethane in regions where its production would occupy a natural space in the management of agricultural waste. The commercial availability of vehicles with this engine in the country facilitates the testing and development of this segment, in order to prepare the agricultural sector for the energy transition. Consumption in this segment currently represents around 15% of the volume of diesel B in the country.
2nd Wave: zero emissions
Only in the 2050s should the conditions that support technological change occur to achieve the zero emissions scenario, the main characteristic of the 2nd wave. An example is “carbon taxes” that would be representative enough to justify the additional costs necessary to boost the technology. “In this case, there would be two solutions currently available: electric and hydrogen engines. Both would not meet the conditions for transporting cargo and passengers over long distances today, but development in the coming decades could bring new possibilities. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the next few years for a clear definition”, says the Leggio consultant.
In the agricultural sector, the elimination of emissions should be directed towards electric and hydrogen engines, considering technologies for local production of these fuels, from available biomass. The link between input availability and fuel production will direct the transition in this segment. D´Elia considers that, as the horizon of 2040 and 2050 is still difficult to predict, new technological advances that could improve the engines under development or create alternatives that have not yet been commercially mapped cannot be ruled out.
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