2023-10-02 00:00:13
On September 28, Taiwan stocks opened high and fluctuated. During the session, the pre-holiday selling pressure came out, and the index was once close to flat. However, as betting orders entered the market, the gains expanded once more, and ended up rising by 43 points, closing at 16,353 points. , the K line closes the cross line.Observe the market through futures, 9/28periodAfter opening high, it once turned from red to black, but as buying orders entered the market, the market turned red once more, and the horizontal consolidation pattern continued. In the short term, although the market pulled back in the last week of September, with bulls holding on to the previous week’s low of 16202 points, the weekly K-line did not bottom out once more that week; the market hovered below the half-year line as expected, and on 9/28 The daily K-line once once more showed a daily level sunrise signal. Many parties are planning to attack once more following the Mid-Autumn Festival or National Day holidays are over. The current challenge for the market is that the monthly sunset signal has not yet been resolved, so the depressive effect of the monthly sunset on the market is still there. This involves the weakness of TSMC, which has caused the market to fail to stand above the first half line. TSMC’s weakness is not only due to the previously mentioned decline in its control over the economy, but also because TSMC also has the function of allocating funds. As hot money continues to be remitted out, foreign capital continues to sell TSMC.
There is a proverb in the stock market that market trends are always born out of despair and grow out of doubt. The despair here is not necessarily the absolute low following the price correction. It may also be a long period of consolidation that makes most holders lose their patience in holding shares, and the stock price launches a counterattack. Recently, many stocks in the lower right corner have been ignited by funds, which means this. Of course, the timing of this rebound is very subtle, and it happened to appear at the end of the third quarter and is regarding to enter the fourth quarter. At this time, since there is only one quarter left in 2023, the importance of the whole year gradually decreases, but the importance of the following year 2024 gradually increases, so different logics appear in stock selection under different time periods. . For example, the approach of focusing on the short-term and capital momentum is to choose operational growth in 2023 and continue to make leaps in 2024. Stocks that are currently rising, such as Dynamic Investment Holdings in the automotive industry, are an example. Thanks to the success of product portfolio optimization, they have since The monthly EPS in July is 0.36 yuan, and the cumulative EPS in the first seven months is 1.56 yuan. The market estimates that this year (2023) EPS will challenge 3.5~4 yuan, and next year (2024) it will be more than 5 yuan, and the stock price will naturally show a strong pattern. . As for the approach of focusing on the mid- to long-term and the stock price level, since the relative position of the stock price needs to be considered, the operation bottoms out in 2023. It will slowly recover from the second half of this year (2023), and a turnaround is expected next year (2024). , stocks that have just crossed the quarter line, such as MCU’s Shengquan, are examples. After digesting inventory month by month in the first half of this year, operations gradually improved in the second half of the year. At present, as the layout of automotive electronics has gradually achieved results, not only automotive-grade MCU has been in the near future Trial production has been introduced, and new power-saving products will also be introduced into operations. If combined with the increase in sales of original industrial control MCUs, the overall effect will be as fast as the fourth quarter of this year and as slow as the first half of next year. With such a turnaround theme, there will naturally be buyers. , pushing up the stock price and strengthening it. These are the two major logics of current stock selection.
AI artificial intelligence stocks that have been tracked all the way have high visibility from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year. Of course, there are also buyers entering the market 1 to 2 months following this wave of stock price correction. AI server assembly OEMs such as Quanta and Gigabyte have fluctuated higher. This wave has rebounded by more than 10% from the low end, and related supply chains have also rebounded in turn. Following Jianzhun and Qihong for heat dissipation, second-tier chassis and power supplies The stock prices of Yingguang, Xupin, Shengmingdian, Shouli, Weixun, Fuhua and other stocks have also heated up, indicating that as operations improve, buying orders have flowed in, and funds are also betting on the third quarter financial report to be released in mid-November. Now, you can lock in the Line@ fan club for more game opportunities.
Source of article: Analyst Cai Zhenghua of Moore Investment Consulting
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