2023-09-05 17:01:54
The ongoing rally in oil prices since late June is likely to stall in the next six months due to weakening demand, warns international oil trader Gunvor. About it writes Bloomberg.
Some European economies are already in recession, and the US economy is likely to follow, Gunvor analyst Frederic Lasser said. In addition, there is no certainty regarding demand in China, the world’s largest oil importer.
According to Lasser, there is a risk of a “significant correction” in the last quarter of this year or the first quarter of next, and the price of Brent oil might collapse to $71-72 per barrel.
Gunvor’s forecast is more pessimistic than that of its rival Trafigura Group. Ben Lacock, co-head of Trafigura’s oil trading department, said yesterday that many sectors of the Chinese economy are not as bad as real estate. Oil market analyst Gary Ross of Black Gold Investors gave the opposite forecast – in his opinion, Brent prices might rise to $ 90-100 per barrel by the end of the year due to a boom in travel in China.
The price of Brent crude on the London ICE exchange on Tuesday rose above $91 a barrel for the first time since November 2022. Oil rises on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their voluntary restrictions. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that Russia would extend a voluntary cut in oil supplies to the world market by 300,000 bpd until the end of 2023. The move aims to “strengthen the precautionary measures” that OPEC+ countries are taking to maintain stability and balance in oil markets, the government said in a statement.
In turn, Saudi Arabia informed, extending the 1 million bpd cut in oil production until the end of the year. Oil production in the kingdom in October, November and December will be regarding 9 million barrels per day.
At 19:36 Moscow time November futures for Brent traded at $90.66, since the beginning of trading, their price has increased by 1.875%.
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