2023-08-12 01:07:57
Oil consumption is heading for an all-time high: the International Energy Agency (IEA) is raising its forecast for global demand growth in 2023, which is heading for its “highest level ever”. recorded”, before a slightly less steep increase in 2024.
Never has the world been so greedy for oil. Without waiting to draw up an annual report, the agency emphasizes in its monthly report published on Friday that global oil demand already “hit a record 103 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June, and August might see a new peak.”
Consumption is “boosted by summer air travel, increased use of petroleum (fuel oil) to generate electricity, and soaring Chinese petrochemical activity,” says the IEA.
For the full year, global demand for black gold “is expected to increase by 2.2 mb/d” compared to 2022 “to reach 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% growth”, specifies the agency.
This is the “highest annual level ever recorded”, according to the IEA, which already forecast in February a record for the current year, of 101.9 million barrels per day, following 99.9 mb/ d in 2022 and 97.6 mb/d in 2021.
This thirst for oil comes in a context of tensions on the markets following drastic cuts in the supply decided by several countries of the OPEC + alliance, made up of 13 member countries oil exporters and 9 allies, to support the price.
As a result, last month, global oil supply fell by 910,000 barrels per day to 100.9 mb/d.
The “sharp reduction in Saudi production in July caused the OPEC bloc’s production to fall by 1.2 mb/d, to 50.7 mb/d”, “near a two-year low”, while ” non-OPEC volumes increased by 310,000 barrels per day to 50.2 mb/d,” according to the IEA.
Nine members of OPEC+, the two heavyweights of which are Saudi Arabia and Russia, introduced voluntary production cuts in May of a total of 1.6 b/d. Cuts subsequently extended until the end of 2024.
At the same time, Riyadh opted for a new production cut of one million barrels per day for July, extended until August, then until September.
Moscow, for its part, had undertaken to reduce its exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August, then by 300,000 barrels per day in September.
Another price hike?
What bring the balance of the market to “tighten further in the fall”, warns the IEA.
“If the alliance’s current targets are maintained, oil inventories might decline by 2.2 mb/d in the third quarter and 1.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter, which might lead to a further increase in oil prices. price. »
Russian oil exports remained stable at around 7.3 mb/d in July, down 200,000 barrels per day. “Rough exports to China and India were down month-on-month, but accounted for 80% of Russian shipments,” the IEA said.
Higher oil prices, combined with lower rebates from Russia, “raised estimated export earnings from $2.5 billion to $15.3 billion”, representing a decline of 4.1 billion dollars over one year, but “their highest level since November 2022”.
Over the year, the IEA expects world oil supply to increase by 1.5 mb/d to a record 101.5 mb/d, growth driven in particular by the United States (1 .9 mb/d).
However, the agency estimates that the increase in oil demand will be less strong in 2024 than in 2023, when the world must reduce its consumption of fossil fuels, harmful to the climate, in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era.
With the post-pandemic recovery “running out of steam” and “the energy transition accelerating” with electric cars, “growth will slow by 1 mb/d in 2024”, predicts the agency.
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