Total demand will reach a “record” level of 101.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), an increase of 2 million forecast in 2023 compared to 2022, and 1.4 million compared to 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the IEA, which slightly raised its forecasts compared to its report last month (101.7 mb/d).
Despite all the energy transition efforts launched around the world, the peak in consumption of oil and other fossil fuels (coal, gas), responsible for global warming, therefore remains distant. The Rystad firm does not expect this turning point before 2025.
The growth forecast for 2023 is essentially dominated by the Asia-Pacific region (+ 1.6 million barrels of oil), and almost half by China (+ 900,000). The country, which abandoned its zero Covid policy in December, will thus play a driving role in this growth with the reopening of borders conducive to boosting air traffic.
The IEA forecasts global jet fuel demand to reach 7.2 million barrels per day (+1.1 million), almost 90% of 2019 levels.
Far behind, oil demand in the OECD zone is expected to increase by 390,000 barrels per day, which is well below the annual growth of 2022 (+ 1.2 million).
On the supply side, global supplies remained stable in January at around 100.8mb/d, according to the IEA.
In particular, Russian exports held up fairly well despite the entry into force in December of the European Union embargo on imports of crude oil by sea and the decision to cap the price of oil introduced by the G7.
The agency expects global production to increase by 1.2 mb/d in 2023, driven by the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada and Guyana, although growth is well below that of 2022 (+4.7 million).
“Global oil supply should exceed demand in the first half of 2023, but the balance might quickly become in deficit as demand recovers and certain Russian products are blocked” due to sanctions, anticipates the IEA.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced on February 10 that Russia would cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in March.
