2024-04-03 15:57:00
(CNN) — The highly anticipated total solar eclipse is quickly approaching, but a new snag has appeared in the weather forecast for Monday’s event.
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Severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, including in the path of totality. These storms could obscure views for some, but are more likely to bring risks for travelers after the eclipse.
Totality, when the Moon completely blocks the Sun, will occur along a path more than 160 kilometers wide from Texas to Maine, passing through cities such as Dallas, Indianapolis, Cleveland and Buffalo, in New York state.
Parts of Texas, including Dallas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana are at increased risk for destructive thunderstorms on Monday, especially during the afternoon hours, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Destructive winds, hail, heavy rain, and even a tornado are possible.
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Severe thunderstorms will generally come to life later in the southern US, after daytime heat peaks, driven by mostly clear skies.
Therefore, the development of any violent storm could be delayed long enough so that eclipse watchers in the threat area can get a decent view of the phenomenon between 1:30 pm and 2:00 pm CDT as they travel across the region.
Anyone stuck in post-eclipse traffic Monday afternoon or evening in northeast Texas, southern Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana could be at risk of destructive thunderstorms.
An estimated 20 million people in the U.S. traveled to another city to view the 2017 total solar eclipse, and there was a significant increase in traffic risks as a result, according to a recent study. Millions more are expected to travel for Monday’s eclipse, as the path of totality will be 64 to 80 kilometers wider than the 2017 path.
The current cloud forecast is not ideal for other locations in the path of totality.
It’s too early to say exactly when and where clouds will form on Monday, but as the event gets closer, you’re starting to get a better idea of overall weather patterns.
The same storm system causing Monday’s severe weather risk could also send moist air from the northern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. This could potentially lead to increased cloud cover in both regions and could obstruct views of totality.
Meanwhile, high pressure and mostly clear skies could form over the Northeast and create excellent viewing conditions for totality.
Cloud forecasts are still subject to change, as minor differences in how storms or air masses move this week can make a big difference in where clouds develop next week. More accurate cloud cover forecasts with higher levels of confidence should be possible this weekend.
In an interesting twist, the current forecast is almost the opposite of what the historical cloud cover data for April 8 shows.
Years of previous cloud cover data point to the Southern Plains as the region with the best chance for a cloudless viewing experience on April 8, and the Northeast as one of the worst chances.
Will this Mother Nature plot twist pan out? Anyone hoping to catch a glimpse of the eclipse should keep an eye on the forecast for the coming days.
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