The Toronto Maple Leafs: A Case Study in Defensive Resilience and Offensive Quandaries
Ahhh, the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team that can make you simultaneously laugh and cry, depending on the day of the week. As of Sunday, they’ve been putting on quite the show—winning seven of their last eight games despite the glaring absence of their star player, Auston Matthews. That’s like getting the gold medal in synchronized swimming while doing it using only one arm. Amazing, right?
Shocking Records and Defending Like Champions
Looking at the stats, the Leafs currently hold the sixth-best record in the league—tied with the splendid Vegas Golden Knights, if you’re keeping score at home. They’re leading the Atlantic Division, edging the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers, by a tempting three points. And let’s be honest, nobody saw this kind of dominance coming at this point in the season. This is like finding out your grandma just won an award for best breakdancer!
A Major Defensive Overhaul
So what’s the magic recipe for success? Well, the Leafs made some high-profile acquisitions over the offseason, bringing in Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Jani Hakanpää—and yes, they included a former NHL coach in Craig Berube. Clearly, they didn’t just want guys who could skate well, but defenders who could actually defend—an idea as revolutionary as suggesting fish should be kept in water and not in a frying pan. Results? The Leafs, who were 21st in goals against last season (3.18 per game), are now flaunting a fourth-place defensive rank with just 2.48 goals against. That’s what we call an upgrade!
Goaltending That Raises Eyebrows
And don’t even get me started on the goaltending. This time last season, the Leafs were in quite a pickle, with their goalies about as reliable as a blindfolded cat walking a tightrope. Fast-forward to now, and the duo of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll has a combined save percentage of .913—ranked fourth in the league. Is this the same team? You would almost think the ghosts of Leafs’ past had been exorcised! Stolarz is even flirting with a quarter-mark Vezina Trophy status, which feels a little like winning a beauty contest in a haunted house—great, but we still have questions.
Offensive Dilemmas Persist
But before we get too carried away and book tickets to the Stanley Cup, let’s pump the brakes for a second—because the offense is still doing the ole “not-so-great” tango. The Leafs are ranked 31st in shots generated per 60 minutes over the last eight games without Matthews, and they’ve scored a measly nine goals during that stretch, which ties them for last in the league. I mean, who’s running the offense here? A cat playing the piano? The fact that they’ve allowed the least goals in that time while scoring the least is like winning a game of charades by just standing completely still—impressive, but let’s not get too excited just yet.
Marner Takes the Lead
Here’s where the magic number comes back into play. Mitch Marner has had his moments, managing to strike for points in all seven of the Leafs’ wins without Matthews. Despite this, he’s averaging just 2.62 shots per game—a stat that suggests he’s taking more selfies than shots. And while he might be assisting at a phenomenal rate (waving at several high-speed pucks), the team’s success largely hinges on how quickly the five-on-five offense can find its feet again.
What Lies Ahead?
In the coming days, the burning question is whether Matthews can return by Wednesday against the Panthers. All bets are on that he’ll swoop in like the hero of a rom-com just before the credits roll. His return could significantly shift the dynamics on the power play. But even if he’s back, the Leafs have to keep momentum and maintain their defensive structure. After all, you don’t earn a grand piano without knowing how to play one, right?
Final Thoughts
As the Leafs gear up for an anticipated match-up against the Panthers, the question isn’t just whether they’re good enough to contend for the title; it’s also whether they can keep their heads above water in the chaotic world of the NHL. So here’s the deal: can they flip the script and chase a Stanley Cup, or are we all in for another year of heartbreak? Grab your popcorn, folks, because it’s going to be a bumpy ride! 🏒
The Toronto Maple Leafs achieved an impressive victory streak, securing their seventh win in eight games on Sunday, remarkably doing so without their star player, Auston Matthews. This performance highlights not only their resilience but also underscores the depth of their roster, an impressive feat for any team, especially one missing its best player.
The Leafs currently boast the sixth-best record in the league, sharing this position with the Vegas Golden Knights. As they move past a quarter of the season, they lead the Atlantic Division by three crucial points against the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers. This week, they are set for a pivotal matchup in Florida on Wednesday.
A giant leap defensively
The management’s strategic offseason decisions are paying off, notably with the additions of defensemen Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Jani Hakanpää, alongside hiring Craig Berube as head coach. The Leafs aimed to significantly enhance their defensive rankings following a challenging previous season where they finished 21st in goals against, conceding an average of 3.18 per game.
This season, however, they have climbed to fourth place with a considerably improved average of just 2.48 goals against. Only the Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, and Winnipeg Jets have outperformed them defensively.
It is particularly impressive that they are conceding so few quality chances during five-on-five play, allowing only the Wild fewer high-danger attempts. In their five-on-five minutes together, the primary defensive pairing of Tanev and Jake McCabe demonstrates outstanding performance, yielding just 6.4 high-danger attempts per 60 minutes, solidifying their position as one of the top pairings in the league.
The penalty kill, which struggled last season, has seen remarkable improvement this year and currently ranks sixth in the league at 83.6 percent effectiveness. They are allowing nearly nine fewer shots per 60 minutes when short-handed compared to the last season, reflecting substantial progress in this area.
Goaltending has been top-notch
The improved goals-against average is also credited to the outstanding performances of the goaltenders, who have played at a high level from the start of the season. This represents a stark contrast to last season’s struggles, especially for Ilya Samsonov, who faced significant challenges early in the campaign.
With the efforts of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, the team has achieved a .913 save percentage, the fourth best in the league. Their five-on-five rank is also impressive, sitting at third in that category.
Offense is very blah
Despite the recent surge of the power play, the Leafs’ offensive struggles, particularly at even strength, have raised questions. They are currently winning only about 43 percent of shot attempts and just under 50 percent of expected goals in their recent games. In Matthews’ absence, the team remarkably allowed only eight goals at five-on-five, but scored just nine, making them tied for the lowest scoring output in the league during that stretch.
The lack of offensive production is compounded by injuries among their forwards, with a healthy Matthews likely boosting their five-on-five output significantly. Coach Berube is contemplating adjustments to enhance the attack, hoping to unlock the offensive potential of the squad.
With star players still capable of game-changing contributions, the question remains whether the team is truly a top contender. The defensive improvements seem genuine, but the ongoing success will hinge on their goal-scoring abilities beyond five-on-five play and the stability of their goaltending.
In focus: Matthews’ return
With Matthews eyeing a return on Wednesday against the Panthers or Saturday in Tampa, the Leafs are hopeful his recovery goes smoothly. His presence on the power play is vital, as he will likely rejuvenate a unit that has recently thrived without him.
Additionally, team dynamics pose questions as the trio of Bobby McMann, Tavares, and Marner has shown promising chemistry. Coach Berube must decide whether to disrupt a functioning line or to find ways to reintegrate Matthews effectively.
As for Matthews’ performance upon his return, it will be pivotal to see if he can regain his dominant form, impacting both scoring and defensive contributions significantly.
Stock watch
Stock up: Marner the scorer. He has averaged seven goals in the last ten games, indicative of his rising form as he approaches 30-goal territory.
Stock down: The on-ice results for Rielly have dipped, as reflected by his concerning possession and expected goals percentages.
Things I think I think
Winning or competing against the Panthers could help the Leafs establish credibility early in the season. A successful result could further solidify their growing reputation as serious playoff contenders, particularly against a former champion. The significance of this match extends beyond the present, potentially influencing postseason matchups.
Ultimately, this game represents a prime opportunity for the Maple Leafs to assert their abilities and validate their successful start to the season.
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, and Evolving Hockey
(Top photo of William Nylander scoring on Karel Vejmelka: Chris Tanouye / Getty Images)