Welcome to the exciting MLB offseason, a period eagerly anticipated by fans and teams alike! This is the time of year when we assess and rank the top talent in the 2024-25 free agent class and speculate about the lucrative agreements they might secure this winter.
This article provides crucial insights into the rankings and contract projections for key players, so it’s wise to peruse these details if you seek clarity after diving directly into the player evaluations.
To keep it straightforward, players are listed according to their predicted guaranteed contracts. An exception is Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, who may only attract an offer limited to international bonus pools if he makes the anticipated move to MLB this winter. These contract projections are informed both by my insights and the perspectives of various agents and executives within the industry; my aim is to forecast likely outcomes rather than present my personal valuation of the players.
At the top of the rankings, we find the sensational Juan Soto, who is anticipated to secure the most impactful contract this offseason. A considerable number of high-profile free agents in this class are represented by the renowned agent Scott Boras. It is projected that Boras will orchestrate contracts worth an astounding $1.717 billion this winter, representing 47.3% of the total of $3.627 billion in guaranteed contracts that I foresee being issued.
For context, I estimated $3.182 billion in guarantees last winter, with my calculations indicating that $3.051 billion was actually distributed. Notably, I’ve excluded Michael Wacha’s recent deal from this winter’s projections, but I initially estimated his three-year contract at $52.5 million before he officially signed for $51 million over the same duration.
There is a sense of cautious optimism buzzing throughout the industry that spending will see an increase, enhancing my projections as I strive to match the accuracy of my predictions from last winter. Now, let’s dive into the contract projections!
1. Juan Soto, OF
2024 Team: New York Yankees
2025 Opening Day Age: 26
Projected Contract: 13 years, $611 million ($47M average annual value)
As a generational free agent topping this class, Soto has been the subject of extensive analysis regarding his potential contract. This past June, I sought predictions from 28 industry experts and ranked him as the premier player in the free agent market by August. Recently, I gathered insights from 15 industry insiders, which have bolstered my projected total guarantee of $611 million for him.
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Boras is poised to negotiate the largest contract of his career, far surpassing the $330 million deal that Bryce Harper signed in 2019. Soto is expected to outdo the adjusted contractual figures of Shohei Ohtani’s deal, which featured a total of $460.8 million and an average annual value of $46.08 million. The prevailing strategy for Boras and Soto will be to maximize the total contract value; deferring payments or extending the contract’s length will likely serve as tools in their arsenal. In case the predicted figures do not materialize, the inclusion of opt-out clauses appears to be a likely fallback strategy. There’s a chance Soto could secure a heavily deferred contract exceeding $700 million in nominal value, while an unimpressive bidding war could lead to a final value below $600 million. Ultimately, this hinges on the aggressive nature of the Yankees, Mets, and any other interested franchises vying for the centerpiece of the winter market and whether they find the alternatives below more appealing.
2. Roki Sasaki, RHP
2024 Team: Chiba Lotte Marines
2025 Opening Day Age: 23
Projected Contract: $5 million (signing bonus in a minor league deal)
Given that there are strong indications suggesting Sasaki’s intention to enter this year’s free agency class, his potential arrival immediately positions him as one of the most coveted players in the market. Due to regulations surrounding players under 25 from Japan, posting him this year would not yield significant financial gain for his team; a scenario akin to Shohei Ohtani would have him restricted to international bonus pools capped at under $8 million. If he waits until after December 15, the pools reset, allowing him to potentially secure around $7 million, but an earlier move would restrict him to a maximum of approximately $2.5 million.
Curiously, the team with roughly $2.5 million available in its international bonus pool – the highest in MLB – is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are considered heavy favorites to land Sasaki, not unlike their acquisitions of Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto the previous offseason. Nevertheless, there are complexities involved for the Dodgers this time. Some scouts believe Sasaki might prefer a smaller market, compounded by a slight decline in his velocity this year, which raises concerns that he may be managing an injury. However, teams looking to acquire him would effectively be bidding for all of the traditional peak years of a pitcher who has showcased elite ability, which easily translates to a valuation around $200 million, despite the need for a substantial discount. This calculated risk paid off for Ohtani and might yield similar results for Sasaki, or alternatively, he could opt to wait two offseasons for a substantial upfront payout, much like Yamamoto experienced.
3. Corbin Burnes, RHP
2024 Team: Baltimore Orioles
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 7 years, $225 million ($32.1M AAV)
Burnes emerges as the premier free agent pitcher with MLB experience available. Although he confronts the typical concerns associated with high-end free agent starters, being 30 years old raises questions regarding health and longevity as teams will need to commit to at least five years. Nonetheless, Burnes’ track record of durability, with 28 to 33 starts over the last four seasons and his ability to throw strikes at elite levels, ensures that he will be compensated adequately. The right-hander maintains a strong yet gradually declining strikeout rate, complemented by increasing velocity, with records showing a career-high average of 95.3 mph on his cutter and 97.0 mph on his sinker in 2024.
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A team signing Burnes will naturally wish to contend for championships within the first half of his contract while hoping for continued health throughout the latter stages. Burnes is viewed as aging gracefully compared to the typical nine-figure pitcher, and expectations suggest he will exceed the $200 million mark, perhaps striving for Stephen Strasburg’s $245 million contract that featured significant deferrals prior to the 2020 season, a deal also represented by Scott Boras. Surpassing that threshold would solidify Burnes’ spot among the top three pitcher guarantees in history, behind Gerrit Cole and Yamamoto.
4. Willy Adames, SS
2024 Team: Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Opening Day Age: 29
Projected Contract: 7 years, $189 million ($27M AAV)
Following a strong 2024 season in Milwaukee, Adames has emerged as the top option among position players in his category, with Alex Bregman trailing closely behind. Adames is approximately a year and a half younger than Bregman and provides superior defensive value along with more in-game power. I anticipate contracts akin to what Marcus Semien secured (seven years, $175 million prior to the 2022 season), adjusted for inflation for both players, although neither is an exact comparison to the Texas infielder based on their individual on-field performances.
Last year’s free agent class lacked a true everyday shortstop, therefore Adames represents the first authentic shortstop to enter the free agency pool since the 2022-23 torrent that featured stars like Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and Xander Bogaerts. Consequently, there will be considerable interest in Adames’ services due to his versatility; he could either remain at shortstop or transition to third base for a team that is already solidified in the shortstop position.
5. Alex Bregman, 3B
2024 Team: Houston Astros
2025 Opening Day Age: 31
Projected Contract: 6 years, $187 million ($31.2M AAV)
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Bregman is being eyed by both the Astros and Washington Nationals, two organizations known for their aggressive pursuit of talent. The question remains whether he will demand more in a limited market compared to shortstop Willy Adames, who will likely see interest from three or four times as many teams. Despite not surpassing the 26-home run mark since 2019, Bregman has consistently delivered three consecutive seasons of 4-to-5 WAR alongside a diverse skill set.
2024 Team: Atlanta Braves
2025 Opening Day Age: 31
Projected Contract: 6 years, $175 million ($29.2M AAV)
Fried should ideally eclipse the Carlos Rodon contract of six years, $162 million from before 2023 while landing somewhere near Aaron Nola’s seven-year, $172 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies last winter. Although Fried may not possess the same level of durability as Corbin Burnes, his velocity remains elevated, reaching career-high levels as he enters his early thirties, complemented by his experience of 12 playoff starts amidst impressive regular-season statistics.
2024 Team: New York Mets
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 6 years, $159 million ($26.5M AAV)
Some teams are wary of evaluating Alonso, given his status as a first baseman nearing 30 years of age who has recently registered a career-low power output in 2024, particularly since a lack of defensive or baserunning contribution limits his overall value. However, numerous teams hold a favorable view of Alonso, considering him worth around $100 million to $125 million, although they may resist higher offers akin to those received by recent first basemen Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130 million) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million).
After reportedly rejecting multiple nine-figure offers from the Mets — including a top offer of seven years at $158 million — Alonso seems well-positioned considering he made $20.5 million last season. While I project a six-year contract worth approximately $137.5 million, it remains possible that Mets owner Steve Cohen advises his team to retain Alonso, regardless of the cost, which would enable him to maintain a favorable position following a strong postseason showing. The anticipated figure is not aligned with how most of the league perceives his value, suggesting that the Mets may ultimately pivot to explore other available power hitters within the market.
2024 Team: San Francisco Giants
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 4 years, $124 million ($31M AAV)
Blake Snell, fresh off his second Cy Young Award, fell short of the nine-figure contract that many anticipated before signing a two-year deal worth $62 million. After struggling initially, Snell regained his form and chose to opt out of that contract. As he navigates this winter’s free agency, industry experts predict a significant nine-figure deal is likely for Snell and his agent, Scott Boras.
A similar situation arises with Alonso, as various teams view Snell favorably but are cautious about committing to a long-term deal, instead looking to secure shorter contracts with the possibility of opt-outs. I foresee a tempting high average annual value offer to emerge for three years, potentially exceeding $100 million. However, a four-year contract appears more realistic, striking a balance between extending the duration and lowering the AAV to navigate competitive balance tax considerations. Additionally, Snell and Boras are unlikely to allow this process to extend into the spring training period again, as that could jeopardize perceived market value and risk a slow start to the upcoming season.
2024 Team: New York Mets
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 6 years, $159 million ($26.5M AAV)
Further analysis reveals that Alonso is a first baseman approaching 30 who adds little defensive or baserunning value, recovering from a dip in 2024’s power numbers. Furthermore, the potential for acquiring first basemen in a substantial market remains uncertain; many teams value Alonso, but the tight market means they may hesitate to pay top dollar comparable to recent contracts.
Despite an underwhelming offensive year, it’s suggested that Alonso’s value could have the potential for upside depending on his performance in the playoffs. Ultimately, whether he fetches an approximate figure of $137.5 million hinges on the Mets’ willingness, but competition in the first-base market could drive him toward more attractive offers.
Other players in the pitcher and corner spot discussion are transitioning through productive seasons, demonstrating varied rates of performance and capability, opening the door for teams with their eyes on projected value in the upcoming free agency cycle.
2024 Team: Houston Astros
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $45 million ($15M AAV)
Players set to hit free agency this winter include a mix of veterans and emerging stars, providing teams diverse opportunities to enhance their rosters as they aim for the upcoming season. Specific attention will also be directed toward managing injuries and assessing players’ performance in recent campaigns.
Ption of value going into the season.
the upcoming free agency class showcases a diverse talent pool with several intriguing storylines. Players such as Sasaki, Burnes, and Adames are set to attract significant attention, with their potential contracts reflecting their valuable contributions to their respective teams. The dynamic nature of the market, combined with teams’ varying needs and financial capabilities, will create an exciting offseason filled with strategic signings and unexpected movements among top-tier players. As we look ahead, it will be fascinating to see how teams navigate the complexities of both their current rosters and financial constraints, all while aiming to build championship contenders for the future.
