© Archyde.com. top and bottom? Complain?… ‘Stop Loss of Tears’ Will this year be different?[2023 증시전망 上]
KRX Korea Exchange Promotion Center in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo = Yonhap News After the especially difficult year of Lim, the year of Gye-myo began. Last year, the domestic stock market slipped properly due to a sharp rise in interest rates. The previous year, the KOSPI returned to the pre-Corona 19 level as the record for the first time in history,’Three thousand blood (3000 lines)’ was pushed to the 2100 line.
The prospect is that this year will also be a difficult year. An interest rate hike is already an unavoidable negative factor, and the slowdown in corporate exports is also a cause for concern. Various risks such as deteriorating liquidity and poor real estate are still lurking. Among these, China’s quarantine measures, which were earlier than expected, have emerged as another variable.
On the 1st, 21 domestic securities company research centers (NH Investment·Korea Investment·Samsung·Shinhan Investment·Hana·Meritz·Kiwoom·Daeshin·Kyobo·Hanwha Investment·Hyundai Motor·KB·Ebest Investment·SK·Eugene Investment·IBK Investment· Hi Investment, Shinyoung, Daol Investment, Heungkuk Securities, DB Financial Investment), as a result of examining the KOSPI expected band this year, the lower end was 1940 points (Daol Investment & Securities) and the upper end was 2930 points (DB Financial Investment).
15 out of 21 suggested the 2600-2700 line as the upper end of the KOSPI. It is evaluated that most securities companies have made conservative estimates due to economic uncertainty. The 2023 KOSPI estimate is… On the 29th of last month, the last day of the 2022 stock market, the ‘1940 ~ 2930 line’ Hana Bank dealing room in Myeong-dong, Seoul. Photo = Yonhap News Last year, the stock market collapsed helplessly due to the triple negative factors of high interest rates, high prices and high exchange rates. The KOSPI plunged 25% from the beginning of the year, recording the largest drop in 14 years since 2008 (-41%). It is the first time in four years since 2018 that the KOSPI has declined yearly.
The KOSPI, which started at the 2900 line last year, ended at the 2200 line. The initial stock market prediction that it would cross the 3,000 mark was completely wrong. The US Central Bank (Fed)’s 4th consecutive ‘Giant Step’ (rising interest rates by 0.75 percentage points at once) that shook the global stock market was a bad news that no one might have predicted.
Kim Hak-kyun, head of the research center at Shinyoung Securities, recently mentioned in a report titled ‘My Mistake in 2022’ that “a crucial misjudgment made last year was overlooking the possibility of prolonged monetary tightening by the Fed.” The index sank 34% year-on-year. The total market capitalization of the securities and KOSDAQ markets plunged 20% from the end of last year to 1,767 trillion won. 2022 stock market collapsed at 3 high… The only thing left for the ‘Multan’ ant is loss Last year, individual investors (ants) bought over 2.5 billion won alone in the domestic stock market (securities, KOSDAQ) for 246 trading days from January 3, the opening date of the stock market to December 29, the closing date. On the other hand, foreigners and institutions sold 11 trillion won and 13.58 trillion won, respectively. This means that individuals received all the foreign and institutional supplies in the down market.
But all that was left was losses. Among the top 10 individual net purchases (Samsung Electronics, Naver, Kakao, SK Hynix, Doosan Energity, Kakao Bank, EcoPro BM, LG Electronics, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, SK IE Technology), there were no stocks that rose from the beginning of the year.
Even half of the 10 stocks were ‘cut in half’ last year. Samsung Electronics, the number one individual net buyer, fell 29.37%. SK Ie Technology recorded a whopping 70% loss rate. Photo = Getty Images ‘Sangjeohago’ vs ‘Sanggohajeo’… Mixed prospects This year, while market activity in the box range is expected overall, most securities companies, including Korea Investment & Securities, predicted that the stock market would show a ‘high and low’ trend. This is a scenario under the assumption that the ‘interest rate policy’, the biggest variable in the stock market, will end in 1Q. There is also a prospect that if the effect of China’s With Corona policy appears faster, the speed of index recovery can be accelerated.
Hwang Seung-taek, head of Hana Securities Research Center, said, “It seems that spending the first half of the year safely will be the key.” may rebound,” he said.
Oh Tae-dong, head of the research center at NH Investment & Securities, said, “In a situation where fears of economic recession are growing due to steep interest rate hikes, it is positive that demand improves anywhere.” It will have a positive impact on the stock market rebound,” he said.
Center Director Oh said, “However, it is unknown whether China’s With Corona will proceed at the speed expected by the market.” It looks like it will,” he added.
Hwang Ji-yeon, a researcher at Kyobo Securities, advised, “Since concerns regarding a recession will emerge in the mid- to long-term, we should maintain a conservative perspective and prepare for a period of sharp rise as stocks enter the recovery period while making a low.”
Ha Jae-seok, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, predicted, “In the first half of next year, the pace of inflation and steep tightening will ease and asset prices are likely to recover.”
On the contrary, there is also a prospect that it will show ‘high and low’. Kang Jae-hyun, a researcher at SK Securities, said, “After the KOSPI reached its peak in the first half due to the suspension of interest rate hikes in the US and a drop in market interest rates, it will continue to decline due to inflation, debt risks, and the slump in the real estate market. (continue)
Shin Hyun-ah / Cha Eun-ji / Shin Min-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter
Listed companies increased share buyback by 1 trillion won this year
January ‘volume bomb warning’… 270 million share obligation cancellation
From the first month of the new year, the mandatory holding of 270 million shares in the stock market will be lifted.
Listed companies bought back 5.2 trillion shares this year… I bought 1 yen more than last year
“Even luxury items are swept away”… ‘E-Marketing’ predicted to explode in popularity in the new year
I can’t lie down in a minor car accident… Financial system changing in the new year
