- Bitcoin’s price has invalidated a widely held macroeconomic thesis.
- Ethereum price is not as badly damaged as other cryptocurrencies.
- XRP price might rebound towards $0.60 before another crash.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices show evidence of decorrelation as all assets begin to paint a different narrative.
Bitcoin Price Needs Alternate Wave Count
Bitcoin’s price has invalidated the widely held macro thesis among professional Elliot Wave traders. On Wednesday, May 11, the bears managed to push the price below $28,800, forcing the end of the famous Bitcoin Triangle thesis. Now that the original macro thesis has been violated, an alternative count must be established to forecast possible price action for the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price remains bullish on monthly and yearly charts. The volume indicator indicated that the current selloff was more of a corrective move with less volume compared to the Bitcoin bull rallies of 2020 and 2021. Thus, alternative counts for the price of Bitcoin might still provide long-term targets as well. greater than $100,000 in the future. Nonetheless, readers are advised to wait for an updated macro account as more market evidence will help paint a definitive narrative for the future price of Bitcoin.
BTC/USD 1 week chart
Currently, the macro thesis invalidation is $14,000 but is subject to change once a new thesis is written in the coming weeks. If the bears can break above $14,000, the whole uptrend scenario will be negated with less than a 1% chance of seeing new all-time highs, while the bears might very well sweep the pandemic lows at $6,000, driving lower 80% from the current. Bitcoin price.
Ethereum price is less damaged from a macro perspective
Ethereum price suffered a sharp sell-off like most cryptocurrencies this week. The bears managed to complete a successful liquidity hunt as the yearly lows were breached at $2150. However, unlike Bitcoin and XRP, Ethereum’s price did not break the 2021 lows at $1,700.
Ethereum price has a big question mark surrounding the current price action and will likely need more evidence from the weekly chart to establish a confident outlook. If the bulls can sustain this level and print a bullish hammer on the weekly chart, a macro range bound triangle might be in the works for the current price of ETH.
ETH/USDT 1 week chart
The easiest invalidation level to use for scalping uptrend counter rallies is now $1700. Should the bears break this level, the next bearish targets would be $1,400 and $1,100 in the coming weeks, which would result in a 45% drop from the current Ethereum price.
XRP price might trap early buyers ahead of another drop
XRP price broke through a consolidation trend channel. A retest of the trend channel might set up a classic breakout and retest strategy for bears looking to join the market. At the time of writing, Ripple price is trading at $0.42, a 40% price rally to $0.57 might occur before the bears flex their bearish strength once more.
The price of XRP broke through the first downside target at $0.36 mentioned earlier this month. The next targets might be $0.34 and $0.27. It should be noted that the volume profile indicates a bearish reconquest of the trend on the weekly chart. Long-term investors should consider rebalancing their portfolios to take advantage of future lower prices.
XRP/USDT 1 week chart
The downtrend invalidation is a breakout at $0.5978. If the bulls reach this level, the entire downtrend might be interrupted. Traders might then redirect towards $1.00, which would lead to a 140% increase from the current price of XRP.
