Trade has grown 47 times, but diplomatic, security and economic security risks in the US-China strategic competition
Expert “Need a joint response with countries that agree with and agree within Korean society”
Korea and China celebrate the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties on the 24th.
At official commemorative events held in Seoul and Beijing on the 24th, Minister of Foreign Affairs Park Jin and State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi will each attend as guests and read congratulatory letters from the leaders of the two countries.
However, in the midst of increasingly fierce strategic competition between the United States and China, the current of Korea-China air on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties is subtle.
It is clearly far from the celebration atmosphere.
Although they are close economically to each other, both people know from experience that security factors can shake Korea-China relations at any time, and it seems to be because the public sentiment between the two countries is worse than at any other time.
The general evaluation of diplomats is that the head of the foreign ministry decided to attend the event and announce the summit message as ‘basic’.
There are many comparing it to the ‘surprise’ attendance of President Xi Jinping (then vice president and member of the Politburo Standing Committee), who was virtually appointed as the next leader at the 20th anniversary of diplomatic ties held in Beijing 10 years ago.
There are also factors related to COVID-19, but the atmosphere of holding the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties in practice rather than as a grand festival is felt in both capitals.
The two countries, which had maintained hostile relations after the Korean War, established diplomatic relations on August 24, 1992, riding on the winds of the post-Cold War.
At that time, the two sides’ strategies and interests coincided with Northern diplomacy under the Roh Tae-woo administration and Deng Xiaoping’s attempt to escape from diplomatic isolation after the bloody suppression of Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989.
Trade between the two countries has grown 47-fold from $6.4 billion in 1992 to $31.5 billion in 2021.
Last year, China was Korea’s number one trading partner (24% of total trade).
80% of the year’s trade surplus came from trade with China.
At the time of establishment of diplomatic ties, the two countries started as a friendly and friendly cooperative relationship, but gradually increased the level of relations from ‘Cooperation Partner for the 21st Century’ (1998) → ‘Comprehensive Cooperation Partner’ (2003) → ‘Strategic Partnership’ (2008). .
However, amid the strategic competition between the US and China called the New Cold War, Korea-China relations have reached a turning point where they need to seek a new normal.
As China competes and conflicts with the United States to fully implement its ‘core interests’ in the Asia-Pacific region, Korea-China relations have also entered the sphere of influence of the US-China strategic competition.
If the scope of cooperation and competition in the US-China relationship becomes clear and the anti-conflict mechanism works, it is expected that the space for diplomatic activities in Korea will expand, but the current trend is moving in a different direction from these expectations.
As the US-China relationship deteriorates, the pressure from both countries to attract South Korea will intensify, and South Korea is expected to stand at a crossroads in terms of military and economic security each time.
China is approaching Korea from both sides.
Regarding the THAAD (high-altitude missile defense system) introduced to protect the people from the North Korean nuclear and missile threats, it has gone beyond the ‘3 denial’ (without adding THAAD, US missile defense and no participation in the ROK-U.S.-Japan military alliance). It is also pressured by demanding even ‘Han (限)’ (limiting the existing THAAD operation).
Even if it is necessary for the security of Korea, it is to make it clear that it will not stand by if it harms China’s security in the strategic competition between the US and China.
In a meeting with Foreign Minister Park Jin in Qingdao, China on the 9th, Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councilor in charge of foreign affairs, advocated the ‘five avenues’ to contain interference from the ‘external’ and urge Korea’s independent diplomacy. There were many opinions that it was.
On the other hand, China’s efforts to strengthen cooperation in the semiconductor field with South Korea against the US trying to exclude China from the semiconductor supply chain, and actively negotiate the second phase of a free trade agreement (FTA) to make the economic link between the two countries closer are another challenge for China. it is one side
As a member of the liberal democracy led by the United States, our ally, we have to be vigilant and check the changes in the international order that China’s rapid rise will bring, while at the same time competing with China in economic and North Korean nuclear issues, and cooperating where we need to cooperate. to be.
Experts pointed out that it is necessary to come up with an internal consensus on how to respond to the heated strategic competition between the US and China, and to strengthen multilateral diplomacy and respond jointly with like-minded countries.
In a phone call with Yonhap News Agency, Korea National Diplomatic Academy Professor Kim Han-kwon emphasized that “the process of the government and the people agreeing on our values, identity, and national interest is necessary first.” “The direction of the policy should be clear,” he said.
Professor Kim said, “Then, we need to develop multilateral diplomacy capabilities that can open a common front with countries that have a common stance on specific issues.” “Joining the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), ) It was difficult for China to take issue with only Korea because Korea was with other countries with the same intentions, such as participating in the summit.”
He also pointed out, “It is necessary to limit the degree of damage to relations when conflict arises by firmly institutionalizing the strategic dialogue channel between Korea and China so that potential conflict issues can be discussed in advance.”
He added, “If China tries to cut off the Korea-China dialogue channel depending on the situation, it should clearly inform China that it will also be detrimental to China under the US-China strategic competition structure,” he added.
/yunhap news